WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN, JUNE 1, 2019
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, May 30, 2019
QUEENSLAND OAKS DAY – DOOMBEN – SATURDAY 1 JUNE 2019
Week four of the Brisbane Winter Racing Carnival featuring the Queensland Oaks at Group 1 level. A day where fashion meets the turf with the ladies turning out in their finest fashions to compliment the racing on the track. The first day of winter as well – let’s hope we are warmer than the folk down south. The Doomben track is rated “GOOD” and the rail is out 4.5 metres for the entire course..
A big shout out to Kris Lees from Newcastle this week – who posted 200 winners at Gosford last Saturday. Since then he has trained several more winners and he heads into this weekend’s Oaks meeting with four runners nominated for the Group 1 Oaks – two allocated to be in the field and another two as emergencies. It is an amazing feat having winners all around Australia.
After a pretty good effort last weekend on the tip including Fun Facts at $21 hopefully, I will be hoping to keep the good form up this weekend at Doomben. I am a little concerned with the rail being out so far for such a prestigious meeting. It may be well worth watching the first few races to see if any pattern emerges.
Finally, I must mention State of Origin – the first game at Suncorp next week. It looks to be a tight tussle as are all the first matches. I see that the QLD coach has banned a mention of “NSW” or a “NSW player” in camp. Clearly, they fear the mighty NSW BLUES. For the record a narrow victory to NSW next Wednesday for mine in a thriller – NSW to get home by 4 points!
I did manage to sneak into the QLD Maroons launch on Monday night at the Howard Smith Wharves – it was a spectacular event with many of you horrible QLD fans giving WINNO a spray on social media. To be fair there were many wonderful players of the Game present and the evening was a great event.
We have another early start this weekend at 11.10am – I had better get into it!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day
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Race 1
The first two races are for the babies – the two-year-old runners. The first race is for the boys.
It is a very open race with no real solid form to be honest – for a Listed race it is very open and tough affair to start off the day.
The Snowden Racing team have been very successful over the Winter Carnival over the years with their two-year-old runners. This one is lightly raced – Autocratic (4). He has raced in Group and Listed races all his career without much luck. Snowden then took him to Newcastle where he won his maiden race over 1400 metres. That run I think was good enough to get away with this race.
The local runner to watch is Eric The Eel (3) who won last start on his home track on the Sunshine Coast over 1600 metres. So, he will run the distance out! Jimmy Orman is in the saddle again this weekend.
Mark Newnham trains Shadow Hero (7) who finished behind Autocratic (4) last start. He finished off the race nicely on that occasion though and this is only his second career start. He probably will have taken some benefit from that run and with Blake Shinn in the saddle commands respect here this weekend.
David Payne has his first runner for the Carnival – Fasano (8). He has had only one start midweek at Canterbury – on that occasion he ran home well, and I think that he will be in this race at big odds here.
Selections: 4-7-3-8
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Race 2
The two-year-old girls step out in this race.
Another Snowden Racing runner was an eye catcher last start in the Bill Carter Stakes a fortnight ago that was won by the Tony Gollan trained Perudo (5). That runner is California Zimbol (10) who drew the outside barrier in that run, got stuck wide and had no luck but still managed to finish off the race nicely.
She has drawn well this weekend and has been sensationally backed from $6 into $2.50. The stable must think she can turn the tables this weekend. Will Snowden Racing and James “Jay Mac” McDonald land a race to race double to start the day off? Time will tell!
I like the Kris Lees Racing runner Longbottom (7) here as well who has won previously in Brisbane before returning home for a short break. She resumed last start at Scone and was sent out as favourite and to be fair was disappointing as favourite. She had every chance to win over the 1100 metres – however, she raced like she was looking for longer.
This weekend she gets to run over 1200 metres for the first time and has the vital gear change of blinkers for the first time. Brenton Avdulla makes his first appearance for the Brisbane Winter Racing Carnival on this runner – I think at $11 she represents great value each way – she may just get the job done here and upset these more fancied runners.
Tony Gollan has four runners out of the eleven in the field. As I mentioned earlier Perudo (5) was impressive last start winning here in good fashion. I am not knocking her form. She has a nice barrier again this weekend and Brad Stewart remains aboard – he has ridden her to both of her career wins! She opened as favourite, however with the amount of support for California Zimbol (10) has blown sensationally. She has got out to great odds now – she can add two consecutive, Listed races to her record!
Niedorp (6) ran second to Perudo (5) last start. Tim Clark had to use her up early from the wide barrier to get her across and race in a forward position. She is drawn 7 this weekend and she will race again in a forward position.
I must mention my good friend Billy Healey who trains Underwood (9) who has won her last two starts. The Healey Racing team has had some good success of late – I would love to see him win a Listed Race and grab some photos after the race. One thing is for sure he will be easy to find in the parade ring as he always takes particular pride in his dress and appearance.
Maybe I should issue a WINNO challenge – if he wins we both get Josh Oliver on our shoulders after the race to celebrate. I may even be able to get Billy up there too (if he has not been eating Maccas and KFC as usual). By the way thanks Sue (mum) for the intel!
Selections: 10-7-5-6 rough chance 1
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Race 3
Meet Mr Taylor (1) drops back in class this weekend and has drawn well to race forward from barrier 3 with Corey Bayliss in the saddle. He has been riding well since returning from a spell - thanks to the stewards. I like the fact that he has a good barrier this weekend and that the Kelly Schweida Racing team have gone for the claim.
Steven O’Dea trains Jami Lady (16) who turned in a superb performance behind Zoustyle against her own age last start. I thought the run was full of merit and she is down in the weights here and she has drawn well in barrier 4. If she jumps cleanly look for her to follow Meet Mr Taylor (1) across and sit in behind him throughout the run. Ronnie Stewart has the mount again this weekend and at $12 could prove to be hard to beat.
Prue’s Angel (5) is massive odds - $31 but I think, drawn midfield. Should give a good show here.
Godolphin have Gaulois (7) and Fragonard (10) in the race. Gaulois (7) has drawn badly in barrier 17 and will need some luck from out there. Tim Clark will need all his skill to navigate this one home.
Fragonard (10) is second up and has the services of Michael Cahill. Michael is riding in career best form and this alone means you must give this runner a serious chance. He resumed last start and probably did not have the cleanest of runs. He has raced well second up in the past – at $15 a rough chance.
Tonsor (3) resumes here and comes off a winning trial a fortnight ago at Warwick Farm. He has a very good record only being out of the money last start here at Eagle Farm when he was sent out favourite. He just didn’t seem to fire over the final 200 metres – was vetted after the race and they found nothing. Maybe he just didn’t like the Eagle Farm track – he has won her previously at Doomben.
Jackson “McLovin” Murphy rides the Kristen Buchanan trained Traumatised (8). Being a NSW solid supporter like me. I suppose this must be the topical tip for the weekend as all you Queenslanders well be “traumatised” when we bash you at your home ground next Wednesday night!
Selections: 1-16-10-5 rough chances 3, 7 & 8
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Race 4 Sky Racing Moreton Cup (Group 2)
Our first Group 2 race for day.
Only a small field of eight to face the starter here after a few early scratchings from the race – but a solid field.
I think this is a solid boxed trifecta 1, 4 and 6.
I like the run of Brave Song (4) last start at Scone where he got too far back and motored home late. The issue here is that he will get back again in the field this weekend. If there is no serious speed in the race – which looks to be the case, he may struggle to get home late. The small field will assist him, but I think the leaders may have an advantage in this race.
Viridine (1) won the Ortensia Stakes (Listed) last start at Scone. The race was run to suit him and he was given a perfect ride by Jason Collett. He looks well placed this weekend and should be able to peel out wide in the straight and finish strongly.
The runner I expect to race forward this weekend – not necessarily lead- is the Edmonds Racing Winter Bride (6). She went around in the Group 2 Victory Stakes last start at Eagle Farm and the run was good. She loves the Doomben track and I think she is a great chance this weekend.
Blake Shinn is in the saddle and I think, with a month between runs, she will be ready to win this race. Toby Edmonds could be celebrating his second Group winner for the Carnival if she can get home here.
Selections: 6-1-4-9
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Race 5 Lightning Handicap (Listed)
Plague Stone (9) was beaten by Zoustyle lasts start here over 1200 metres. That was his first start after being gelded. He is taking on the older horses here this weekend, however, is down in the weights.
Larry Cassidy is back in the saddle after a win aboard him in the Mick Dittman Plate (Listed) back in April. Cassidy has an impressive record on Godolphin runners when he gets to ride from the BLUE team … go team BLUE … go NSW! He is my best bet for the day!
Godolphin has Badajoz (3) in the race as well. I think his last start at Hawkesbury should be overlooked. He was not suited by the way the race was run. He has had a solid barrier trial since that effort. I think that the race conditions and the way the race will be pan out may suit this runner. Blake Shinn is a bonus to his chances.
Will Clarken brings Everyday Lady (8) from the Group 1 Sangster at Morphettville – her best form is over these shorter distances and I think that she will be suited by the speed in the race here this weekend. Michael Walker is a big race rider and will be looking to get a win in Brisbane.
Tycoon Ace (7) won the Bat Out of Hell over 900 metres at the Gold Coast last start. He has drawn barrier 17 and will need to be ridden back and be brought wide with one final crack at them in the straight by Michael Cahill. If he had drawn in closer, I may have put him in my placings – the only concern is that he will need some luck from out there.
If you want to back some rough chances here look for these two.
In Good Time (11), trained by Tracey Bartley, finished off the race here a fortnight ago in the Chief De Beers, while the other one that could be a rough hope, right down the bottom, is Sei Stella (17) trained by Matthew Dale.
She is first up here this weekend – she is undefeated in three efforts first up. She loves these short distances and looks the likely leader here. With the rail out and Brad Stewart in the saddle maybe he can get across and get away with cheap sectionals in front and steal the race.
Selections: 9-8-3-17 rough chances 7 & 11
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Race 6
A Listed race over 1350 metres.
Natch (12), from Gollan Racing, has been very consistent since resuming from a spell. He goes up in grade this weekend, but he goes down dramatically in weight. He looks well drawn and Brad Stewart has a great association with this runner – winning on him three times.
Steve Tregea trains Niccanova (2) who was super unlucky in the Group 3 BRC Sprint two weeks ago here. He could not get clear running and was held up at two vital stages. He was not tested and this weekend I think he gives jockey Jimmy Orman another chance to win a black type race aboard him. Orman rides this runner well and I am hoping that he gets better luck in this race and scores second up.
Redouble (3) is trained by Bjorn Baker who tasted victory last weekend with Fun Facts (did I mention I tipped him!).
This runner went around in the Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup last weekend. His run was solid without threatening the winner. I think back in grade this weekend, and with the quick back up, he may be able to test this field. One thing is for sure – if he wins Bjorn will be jumping around and celebrating – maybe another trophy above his head for WINNO after the race!
Malvern Estate (9) is trained locally by Desleigh Forster. He has raced in three Listed races since resuming from a spell. His run in the Prime Minister’s Cup at the Gold Coast was good on the heavy track. I think he fought on well and will be a rough chance here this weekend on the firm surface.
Selections: 12-2-3-9 rough chances 4 & 10
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Race 7 Helen Coughlan Stakes (Listed)
This race is over 1200 metres for the fillies and mares.
Multaja (3) looked to be disappointing last start out when she went around in the QLD Day Stakes (Listed). She was sent out a short-priced favourite and seemed to dwell at the start. The leaders set up a solid speed in front and she didn’t really seem to enjoy being back in the field. In the end she found the task of running the horses down that raced handy on the speed too hard.
I am just not too sure whether she is one of these horses that needs many things to go right in her races to win. I watched the previous run at Hawkesbury on video and she seemed to have similar excuses. She has drawn a little wide in barrier 12 – Blake Shinn rides her this weekend – maybe she is one that should be gambled against..
Pedrena (2) is trained by Mick Price & Michael Kent (Jnr) and has drawn well in barrier 1. She had a barrier trial last week which she won in good style. She always races well fresh and, in this class, looks very well placed.
Naantali (5) resumes here after a six week break for the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace yards. I keep going back to here run behind Pierata in the All Aged Stakes (Group 1) at Randwick when she ran a bottler of a race when only beaten by 2.9 lengths.
This is a far inferior field to what she met last start and I think she will be right in this race. Nikita Beriman has the ride – she won on her back on 6 April at Caulfield. I think that whatever she does this weekend she will be better for the run and will probably be aimed at the Tatts Tiara in a few weeks’ time.
Madam Rouge (16) is from the Chris Waller stables. She resumed after a short let up at Scone last start over 1100 metres with a massive weight and hit the front and was nailed late on the post by the eventual winner Ready To Prophet. First-up - maybe her fitness cost her the victory.
This weekend she goes into the race with three weeks between runs and is down in the weights. I think will enhance her chances. Corey Brown hops aboard this weekend for his first sit on the Zoustar filly.
Stella Victoria (6) resumed with a great effort in the Victory Stakes (Group 2) at Eagle Farm last start. I was not unhappy with the effort – I did tip her on top that start as well. I think that she may have been outclassed with some tough opposition on that occasion. She may not have endured the Eagle Farm track either. She is back to Doomben where she has an exemplary record and Jeff Lloyd is back aboard this weekend. He has a wonderful affiliation with the mare with 7 rides – 4 wins and 2 seconds.
Snow Valley (19) is trained at Murwillumbah by Matthew Dunn. She resumed in the Denises Joy (Listed) at Scone last start and suffered here first defeat in four starts. That was a step up in class for her, but she handled it well I thought – especially on a new track that she had not raced at previously. She is second up here – Robbie Fradd in the saddle. She was an emergency, however, with the early scratchings she has managed to sneak into the field – maybe she can cause an upset here at $35.
Selections: 16-3-6-5 rough chance 2 & 19
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Race 8 Treasury Brisbane Queensland Oaks (Group 1)
The big race of the day – the 2019 Treasury Brisbane Queensland Oaks – Group 1.
Let’s just start at the top of the field and work through them here.
Princess Jenni (1) won the Group 1 South Australian Oaks last start at Morphettville for trainer David Brideoake and jockey Damien Oliver. That victory made it three wins in a row so she has the winning form on the board. In the past several years the winner of this race has come off a win in her previous start (an interesting statistic) – so she fits this bill. She is cramped odds for mine and having her first look at Doomben and going this way I am punting against her!
Aliferous (2) is trained by Kris Lees at Newcastle. As I said earlier his stable is flying and he has had some wonderful successes. This filly was finishing the race off at a rate of knots last start when narrowly beaten by Etana (3) in The Roses (Group 2). I think that she was going better on the line than the winner.
She was held up in the straight – she then had difficulty in getting clear at the 200 metres and had to shift around some other runners. It was a very good effort in getting so close. Brenton Avdulla will be looking to ride his first Queensland Oaks winner and claim a maiden Group 1 victory for the Carnival is he can get this one first past the post.
Angel Of Heaven (12) is the stable mate. She ran well last weekend when beaten by Fun Facts. She finished of the race nicely and should be respected here this weekend – Larry Cassidy takes the ride.
Etana (3) – well you cannot knock winning form. She did what was needed in The Roses a fortnight ago and John Allen rode her to perfection. She is trained by Ciaron Maher & David Eustace who are having a wonderful Carnival with several feature winners. His horses have been well prepared, and he has clearly targeted races for his runners.
This is proving a winning formula – plus he has a tremendous record with his runners here at Doomben. Put all that together and the fact that she is a last start winner and she certainly ticks a few boxes here this weekend.
Brian Smith knows how to train a stayer – he proved the last weekend with the exciting win of Order Again. He trains Belle Roc (7) who ran fifth in The Roses. The run was good, and she has always been set for this race.
Then we have the five Chris Waller runners that have been nominated for the race this year. You must pay respect to all these runners as he seems to have a knack of getting the right one to peak on the day. In recent years he has trained three of the past four winners – Youngstar (2018), Egg Tart (2017) and who can ever forget the win of the mighty mare Winx in 2015.
Welsh Legend (8) has been treated badly at the barrier draw being allocated barrier 20. It was a strange run last start in The Roses – she was hampered at the start – she got checked in running then she managed to scoot along the rails and get clear running as the other runners came down the centre of the track.
At one stage she looked like the winner but just ran out of puff and was swamped late. I think that she is the type to be ridden a little more quietly and has a short final sprint that may test the other runners late. I originally had her winning the race until she drew so wide. Blake Shinn has been booked to ride her. He is riding in brilliant form now but he will need to be at his best and get some luck here to get her home.
Duchess of Lennox (16) is another Waller Racing runner. She comes off an exciting race last start against the older horses here over 2000 metres. She was knocked over at the start and lost momentum, got balanced and still was able to make ground late and was going home three strides to everyone else’s one. Look I must declare I have an interest here as I backed her a few months ago at $41 to win this race. I have been holding my breath all week to see if she would make the field and she has snuck into it.
She has a poor barrier drawing barrier 21 – but I don’t think that will be a hinderance as I think she will settle back in the field and come home out wide very late. I am just hoping that with the rail out so far this weekend that horses from the rear of the field can make ground and the leaders do not have any advantages. James McDonald has been booked to ride her.
I won’t be taking the $14 on offer, as I have already got the good odds, but I do think that she is a genuine chance and one that must be included in your multiples and exotic bets.
Winning Ways (4) to be ridden by Matty McGillivray could be one at odds to show up as well. Some serious support for this one since the markets were posted firming from $41 into $23. Her run in The Roses may be best to be overlooked as she was tightened at a vital stage and really had no chance to finish off the race.
Selections: 2-8-16-3 rough chances 1, 4, 7 & 12
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Race 9 P.J O’Shea Stakes (Group 2)
A small field to finish the day off – this race has turned up some rough results in years gone by!
Another solid chance for the Maher & Eustace stable with the last start Doomben Cup (Group 1) winner Kenedna (9) going around here. Could it again be a race to race double for Maher/Eustace and John Allen in the final two races?
Kenedna (9) was well backed last start to the exclusion of most other runners and got the job done in emphatic fashion. I think that she appreciates firm racing surfaces and she will get those conditions again this weekend. I saw that John Allen showed how versatile he is as a jockey winning over the jumps last week as well!
Chris Waller’s runners are well in here. Life Less Ordinary (2) was unlucky in the Doomben Cup when he finished a gallant second to Kenedna (9). He was held up and had to shift around to get a clear run. The winner looked too good on that occasion, however, when you are a stayer and building momentum in the final stages you do not want anything to hinder that movement.
This was evident in the previous start at the Gold Coast when he comprehensively won the Hollindale Cup. If he gets luck this weekend he may just see a reversed result!
Waller trains Re Edit (12) who is the fifth emergency for the Queensland Oaks (race 8) and looks unlikely to get a run. She was desperately unlucky in The Roses - being checked and knocked down around the 1700 metres then she was held up and restricted for room at the 200 metres.
She probably deserved to finish much closer at the finish. She gets into this race on the minimum and Robbie Fradd takes the ride. One thing for sure if she is a wining chance at some stage in the straight he will be throwing everything at her to get her first past the post.
Shillelagh (8) is another Waller runner – I can never catch her – she will probably win this race after I have said that!
Sixties Groove (6) is another Kris Lees Racing runner coming off a good third in the Doomben Cup. A change of rider this weekend with Damien Oliver to partner him. He is third up this weekend and he has proved to be hard to beat third up in the past.
Selections: 9-2-12-6 rough chances 1 and 8
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Jockey Challenge
It is a battle between the NSW jockeys James McDonald and Blake Shinn. I think Jay Mac may just get the decision this week.
Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
5,7,10 / 1,10,16 / 1,4,6 / 3,8,9,17 - cost is $108 to $1
Value Early Quaddie (race 2 to 5)
7,10 / 1,16 / 1,6 / 9 - cost is $8 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
2,3,9,12 / 3,5,6,16,19 / 1,2,3,8,16 / 2,6,9,12 - cost is $400 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
2,3,12 / 3,16 / 2,8 / 2,9,12 - cost is $36 to $1
Treble (races 6 to 9)
3,5,6,16 / 1,2,3,8,16 / 2,6,9,12 - cost is $80 to $1
WINNO V FLEMO
I belted FLEMO last weekend in our tipping competition – like a good NSW supporter would.! I would say it was a “FUN FACT” – that will haunt him for a while! To be fair our tips were close to the mark last weekend! He will want to show something this weekend with his Queensland pride on the line both on Saturday and Wednesday night! WINNO leads 2 -1 so far in the Brisbane Winter Carnival. Be sure to check the up to date and amended tips each Saturday morning on Facebook after any track changes of scratchings!
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