WINNO'S WINNERS: EAGLE FARM, JUNE 22, 2019
By Darren Winningham | Friday, June 21, 2019
Eagle Farm this weekend with the track rated “GOOD.” The rail is 4 metres out for the entire course. The weather looks promising for the rest of the week. The track has held up well over the Carnival – majority of winners have come from racing in the first half of the fields – however, some have been able to make ground and flash home!
The last Group 1 for the 2018/19 racing season - the Tattersalls Tiara. The final of the 2019 Battle of the Bush is race 3 on the program – this is a wonderful initiative from Racing Queensland as well.
The fields look very even, and the racing will be extremely competitive.
Just one final word of warning. This day has in the past been ugly for punters with some rough and varied results!
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day
Race 1
Lifesaver (11), trained by Matthew Dunn at Murwillumbah, resumed at Randwick over 1000 metres for a dominant win. He is second up this weekend and he will race in a forward position. He is only lightly raced. His record second up is good.
Boom Chicka Boom (4) will be the likely leader here from the Les Kelly stables on the Gold Coast. This gelding has drawn well in barrier 2 to jump straight into the lead and take up the running. Tommy Berry has been booked for the ride and he has performed very well here in two previous efforts only to be beaten in the shadows of the post. With the first look at the track they will be coming at him late again – can he hold on?
Anthony Cummings trains November Man (14) who will race midfield and has Blake Shinn aboard. There has been some serious support in the early markets firming from $4.40 to $3.00. His recent pattern of racing is to settle in the rear of the field and get home. It is difficult to line the Sydney form up with these runners. He could well just come out and destroy the opposition in the opening race as race as the betting suggests.
Oradonna (10) is second up after winning midweek at Doomben when resuming. Ipswich Cup winning jockey Michael Murphy has the ride this weekend and he will be looking to consolidate his recent streak of luck in the saddle by getting this one home here.
Selections: 11-4-14-10 rough chance 1
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Race 2 Winning Edge (Listed)
A race for the two-year old’s over 1400 metres.
It looks like we have the Godolphin trained Kordia (2) in the BLUE corner and the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott trained Discharged (1) in the RED corner. Let the best horse win!
I am going for Discharged (2) to win this weekend. He comes out of a race won by Prince Fawaz at Randwick a month ago when he led all the way and was run down late. Since then Prince Fawaz has won the J J Atkins Plate (Group 1) here. He will be in front for a long way but might be a sitting duck for the opposition in the final 150 metres.
Now that being said Blake Shinn has been masterful in these races over the Carnival being able to place his mounts in a perfect position to knock off the favourites. He rides the Godolphin James Cummings trained Kordia (2) who comes off a midweek win at Canterbury when he raced close to the lead. He has had a strong barrier trial since then and looks well placed here by the stable.
I really think the race is between these two runners.
Matthew Dunn trains Snazz ‘N’ Charm (6) who debuted at Kensington over 1100 metres and raced as if the 1400 metres of this race will suit him. Prior to his debut he had won two barrier trials in slashing style.
Selections: 1-2-6-12
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Race 3 2019 Battle of the Bush Final
The final of this wonderful series that has been held across the State. Trying to line the form up is impossible!
Last year Bush Caviar (2) sprouted wings in the final 200 metres and went down by the narrowest of margins when the race was at Doomben. I think Eagle Farm will suit him better and Jim Byrne is aboard like last year for owner/trainer Henry Forster.
Fab’s Cowboy (1) is a prolific winner in the bush with 30 wins from 65 starts. He carries a massive 62 kilograms but he will run an honest race.
Deadly Choices (5) is trained by Damien Finter and Blake Shinn has been booked to ride. Money has steadily flowed for this one since the markets opened and the gelding is favourite now at around $4.40. You must respect this runner. His form has been solid in the lead up to the final and the booking of Shinn must give the stable that added confidence.
Music Scene (8) has drawn awkwardly in barrier 12 but I think, if he doesn’t get caught wide in the running, that he is a tremendous chance for trainer David Reynolds and jockey Leanne McCoy. His last start win at Goondiwindi was solid and I think he will be suited on the big track.
Machu Picchu (9) has won his last two starts leading into the final. The latest win was at Nanango – prior to that at Warwick. Hannah English has ridden him for 18 of his 40 career starts so she knows him very well. The runs have been solid and the times very competitive in the lead up to this. I think from the nice barrier he will sit in behind the leaders and be very strong over the concluding stages.
Regardless of the result there will be some very proud owners, trainers and jockeys at Eagle Farm for their first time – I hope to catch up with as many of them as I can and say hi!
Selections: 9-8-5-1 rough chance 2
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Race 4
A small field here over the 1400 metres for the three-year olds at set weights.
The Gollan Racing trained Vega One (1) will be sent out as a short-priced favourite in this race after coming back from the Group 3 Fred Best to this Listed race at set weights. He meets many of his rivals very well.
In his previous start at Doomben in the Listed QLD Day Stakes he was ridden by Blake Shinn and he won in decent fashion with a wonderful tactical ride by Shinn who is back on this weekend.
Malahide (7) is trained by Michael Costa on the Gold Coast. She was superb here in the Listed Daybreak Lover a fortnight ago and commands respect again this weekend in this smaller field. She was well backed last start firming from $21 to $11 and she ran up to those expectations.
Toby Edmonds is probably still in England. His runner Churning (8) ran in the Daybreak Lover as well last start. It is fair to say she never had the best of luck in running and she will be looking to atone for that defeat. She is decent each way odds as well at around $21 in some markets.
Tony Pike is still looking for those Australian dollars to take home to New Zealand with his runner Cyber Attack (2) who was desperately unlucky in the Daybreak Lover as well. He was the victim of a large field and getting caught behind a wall of slower horses and really was not tested over the final stages. He will be right in the finish this weekend.
Selections: 1-7-2-8
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Race 5
An open race with many chances. I have headed to the bottom of the field here for my numbers.
Sofie’s Gold Class (13) stormed home last start but was held up at the 200 metres. She probably deserved to finish in the placings. The run was quite good.
The favourite is Sweet Deal (14) to be ridden this weekend by Jason Collett. She drops back in class and was backed with confidence when she resumed in the Group 2 Dane Ripper Stakes – she firmed from $21 to $10 and finished off the race nicely. She has a tremendous second up record and, despite drawing wide, will be competitive in this grade.
Smartedge (11) is from Snowden Racing. He resumed on a bog heavy track at Randwick, that didn’t suit him, and he carried a mammoth weight. This race looks ideal for him and the fact that Snowden has sent him north for this race suggests that they are confident that he will perform well here.
Kelly Schweida Racing has Shogun Sun (9) in the field. He has raced in Listed and Group 3 races his past two starts and, back in grade this weekend, gets into this race well.
Magnufighter (8) always goes well fresh and second up – keep this one in mind for your exotics – Jamie Kah to ride.
Selections: 13-14-11-9 rough chances 8
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Race 6
The Tattersall’s Cup over 3000 metres – go and grab a drink whilst they go around!
You could not have missed the run of Big Duke (1) in the Brisbane Cup (Group 2) behind his stable mate Sixties Groove when he was tailed off and ran home strongly to finish a credible third. He ran fourth in the 2017 Melbourne Cup so the distance is not a problem. He comes back in grade and despite the weight I have always thought that this race was his grand final whilst he has been in Queensland – let’s hope he gets the job done this weekend for Newcastle trainer Kris Lees!
Sin To Win (7) put in a similar run to Big Duke (1) in the Brisbane Cup coming from a similar position from the rear of the field and storming home late to finish fourth. He has won previously over 3200 metres so he will run this trip right out.
Our Libretto (6) has been disappointing for mine since coming to Queensland for trainer Grahame Begg. If she can run this 3000 metres, she will be right in the race. Tim Clark has been booked to ride her this weekend.
The runner up in the Queensland Derby (Group 1) Vow and Declare (9) is a surprise starter. This Danny O’Brien trained gelding protested against Mr Quickie in the Derby with some alleged interference over the final 100 metres. I think I said if the protest got up I would have walked to Sydney nude – lucky for the motorists on the Pacific Highway the stewards agreed with me! Look his run was good in the Derby. That was against his own age though and I thought the Derby field outside the winner was very average this year. I just cannot see him beating the older more seasoned horses this weekend. Will I put the same bet on the board of his chances winning – stay tuned Saturday morning!
Last weekend It Ain’t All Honey (11) won the restricted staying at Ipswich in a one act affair with a ripper of a ride by Jim Byrne. He took off around the 700 metres and turned the race into a staying test and kept the opposition at bay. Look for him to execute the same tactics this weekend with the light weight!
Selections: 1-7-6-9 rough chance 11
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Race 7
The G H Mumm – a great supporter and sponsor of the Tattersall’s Racing Club and a wonderful champagne!
The Chris Waller trained Another Dollar (7) looks well placed here this weekend. Forget about the last start on the heavy track at Randwick over a mile. She has been looking for longer than the mile, in my opinion, in recent starts and this weekend she gets a look at 1820 metres and on a big open track. I think she can win this race at nice odds of around $15.
Live and Free (8) has been well supported in the markets since the they opened. He is trained by John O’Shea and will be ridden by Glen Boss. He has been racing in NSW and Victoria in recent starts and now finds his way to sunny Queensland – looks like he copes with the travel. He will run this distance out as well.
Take It Intern (9) is a Kris Lees Racing runner who faces the starter for the fourth time this preparation. He struck a heavy track last start at Randwick and despite performing well I think he will be better suited on top of the ground. He should be at peak fitness this weekend at Eagle Farm and I expect a bold performance.
Duca Valentinois (1) ran home nicely last stat when he could not run-down Vinland (6) late. He was doing his best work late and gives the impression that the extra distance will suit him this weekend.
In saying that Vinland (6), for his part, looked like he peaked on his run and the mile would see him out. But if there is some genuine speed in this race this weekend, he may just get the 1820 metres. He is trained by Tony McEvoy and he always places his horses well.
Aqua Vite (11) is running into some form. He is $51 and could be the roughie that the bookmakers will be cheering to knock off these more favoured and well supported runners. He has been working up to this distance and it is his fourth run from a spell.
Selections: 7-9-8-1 rough chances 6 & 11
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Race 8 Tattersall’s Tiara (Group 1)
There is a heap of gear changes in this race – maybe there is a message in amongst them.
Let’s start with the top two runners who coincidentally finished 1 -2 in last year’s race when it was held at Doomben over 1350 metres. Invincibella (1) comes off the same preparation as last year winning the Group 2 Dane Ripper a fortnight ago when James McDonald placed her handy in the running and she was too strong and ran past her stable mate Prompt Return (2).
Last year the result was similar in the Dane Ripper but then Prompt Response won the Tiara. She does meet many of her opposition better at the set weights this weekend coming out of the Dane Ripper and looks a serious contender this weekend.
Spright (3) lost all chances at the start in the Stradbroke when she suffered interference at the start. If you forgive that effort, she must be a chance here.
Godolphin and James Cummings have launched a big assault on this race with three quality runners – all of which I think have very genuine chances to win the race. They have had a tremendous Carnival bringing the right horses to Queensland and James Cummings’ team has been very successful at the Gold Coast under the guidance of Nacim Dilmi.
Pohutukawa (18) was desperately unlucky suffering a check in the Queensland Guineas (Group 2) as she started to gain momentum around the 300 metres. She lost all chance of winning but somehow picked herself up off the floor and flashed home late to run third. Some people prescribe to the fact that you need to run a solid mile over the 1400 metres at Eagle Farm to be successful. She ticks this box and I see that Blake Shinn has stuck with her this week after that misfortune a fortnight ago.
Her stable mate Savatiano (10) won the Moreton Stakes (Group 3) a month ago. She was very strong going to the line last start and looks like the 1400 metres will be right up her alley. She has a barrier trial last week at the Gold Coast and won it well – it was a soft win but she looks ideally placed again this weekend.
The other BLUE runner is Multaja (17) who I thought could not win last start in Listed company. But she proved me wrong. I think that 1400 metres may really test her this weekend. However, there is a good news story here for all the racing scribes – it is Jeff Lloyd’s final Group 1 ride before he retires from the saddle in a few weeks’ time. Will it be a fairy tale ending?
I keep coming back to the run of Noire (11) who ran the fastest final 200 metres in the Dane Ripper. Some punters like the formula – barrier 11 / number 11 – maybe this will bring some luck to the Waller stables in this final Group 1 race of the season. Robbie Fradd takes the ride and is sure to be eager to claim a Group 1 race in Queensland. She is third up and she has an immaculate record each time she goes around third up.
Eckstein (7) was sold recently at the sales and Chris Waller now trains her. She always seems to throw a spanner in the works in these races and show up at massive odds. She is around $31. Despite drawing wide she will race midfield and let down late – Craig Newitt has come north to ride this one.
It is a very open race with many chances – a wonderful way to finish the Carnival off with the girls going around in a Group 1.
Selections: 18-11-10-2 rough chances 1,3,7 and 17
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Race 9 W.J.Healy Stakes (Group 3)
A good quality sprint race to finish off the day.
The Snowden Racing trained Brave Song (3) was making ground and finishing off the race powerfully last start when narrowly defeated in the Moreton Cup (Group 2). That run was remarkable, and he looks a nice, solid bet to finish off the day.
Victorem (2) is trained by Jenny Graham at Port Macquarie and will be ridden by Ben Looker again this week. The run to win the Hinkler (Listed) last start here a fortnight ago was something special. I thought he was in all sorts of trouble and then he picked himself up and belted home late to go away and destroy the field. This weekend he must lump 59 kilograms – that is my main concern. However, this runner has an enormous and powerful final 200 metres finish. If he gets the breaks and the weight does not slow him down too much look for him to post a consecutive win this weekend.
Quilista (5) is trained by Ciaron Maher & David Eustace. She won two starts ago at Doomben over 1200 metres. Then stepped up to 1300 metres here last start when I think the distance tested her. Back to 1200 metres this weekend I expect her to be very strong at the finish and maybe claim a Group 3 race for the stable.
Amanaat (7) is trained now by Mark Currie. He resumed at Doomben three weeks ago over 1050 metres and flew home late. He was going better than most when the race concluded. He is undefeated second up – 2 starts / 2 wins and Glen Boss is in the saddle for the first time. This runner gets in well at the weights and, to be fair, has an imposing race record with 16 starts for 9 wins. As there is some genuine speed in this race it probably will suit him.
Isaurian (9) is a James Cummings runner who has not raced for five weeks. He last won the Chief De Beers and since then has had a strong barrier trial on the Gold Coast. His second up record is not all that impressive, but you must respect the Godolphin team as their strike rate over the Carnival has been impressive.
Selections: 3-7-2-5 rough chance 9
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Jockey’s Challenge
Blake Shinn to win for mine. The only danger is Robbie Fradd.
Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
1,2 / 1,2,5,8,9 / 1,2,7 / 8,9,11,13,14 - cost is $150 to $1
Value Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)
8,9 / 2,5 / 4,8 / 1,6 - cost is $16 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,6,7,9 / 1,7,8,9 / 1,2,10,11,18 / 2,3,5,7 - cost is $320 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
1,7 / 7,8,9 / 10,11,18 / 2,3,7 - cost is $54 to $1
Treble (races 8 to 10)
1,7,8,9 / 1,2,10,11,18 / 2,3,5,7 - cost is $80 to $1
WINNO V FLEMO
FLEMO won last weekend in a close battle. This weekend it is State of Origin 2 in Western Australia I am looking forward to a NSW win – they will win by 8 this week as will I against FLEMO! Be sure to check the up to date and amended tips each Saturday morning on Facebook after any track changes of scratchings!
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