WINNO'S WINNERS: GRAFTON, JULY 10, 2019

By Darren Winningham | Tuesday, July 9, 2019

GRAFTON – RAMORNIE DAY – WEDNESDAY 10 JULY 2019

Day 3 of the GRAFTON CARNIVAL 2019 – and it is the time-honoured Ramornie handicap. Some great sprinters have saluted in this race past

The track has been affected by the rain and has been posted as a HEAVY 8 at the time of writing for the meeting. The rail is in the true position for the entire course and I would expect the jockeys to be hugging the rail early on as that part of the track has not been used with the rail out 3m and 4m on the first two days so far.

Bruce Hill had a winning double on Sunday – taking out the Grafton Toyota South Grafton Cup with his old war horse Bodega Negra at $31. Despite being an outsider in the race there was some confidence from the stable once that track had been downgraded in the middle of the day when showers plagued the track and the meeting.

Ridden by Jon Grisedale who has now set up camp at Coffs Harbour with his wife Donna the gelding led throughout to win easily in the heavy conditions. Grisedale saying after the race “this is my first ride for the stable – at least I didn’t stuff it up”

Toby Edmonds also broke a small drought winning with Rumberella in race 4 on the program with a very heady ride from the leader Queensland apprentice Baylee Nothdurft who brought the gelding wide to find the better ground on the Grafton track to win narrowly.

We move to Ramornie day on Wednesday with a large field. Some of the more favoured runners have drawn wide. Maybe this year will be one of those years where an upset may occur!

I will make brief mention of the young jockey that hailed from the Mid North Coast who is making his mark internationally in Hong Kong – Zac Purton. How good was his effort on Sunday at Sha Tin riding 6 winners on the program?

That now places him within reach of Joao Moreira’s 170-win season. With just 20 races left in the season, Purton is now in a race against time, needing seven more winners to set a record in what has been a career-best season for him having already comfortably destroying the prize money and Group One record.

The dazzling six-wins takes Purton to 96 Sha Tin turf winners this season, putting him in a position at next week’s final meeting of to become the first jockey to ride 100 winners on the surface in a single season should he have another dominant performance! I think I will be stuck to the TV next Sunday – watching the last day of the Carnival at Grafton and the Sha Tin races.

That said, it is now time to preview the program – I will be live from the track for Wednesday and Thursday.

NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day

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Race 1

A distance race to start off the day – only a small field to face the starter.

Jazzland (4) and Proud Captain (2) met on Day 1 of the Carnival in the Cup Prelude. Jazzland (4) meets Proud Captain (2) better at the weights with these conditions, however Proud Captain (2) has the better wet track form. It is probably a flip of the coin to see who prevails here. The blinkers go on Jazzland (4) for this run – maybe this is enough to see him get across the line.

Rod Northam and Robert Thompson combine with Athena’s Choice (7) who drops several kilograms on her last run as she goes up in class for this race. These two have a lethal strike rate when they come to Grafton and maybe this runner will bring a win for them on Day 3 of the Carnival.

Real Time Warrior (3) from Joanne Hardy’s stables has some okay soft track form – maybe that will place him in good stead here this week.

Selections: 4-7-2-6

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Race 2

Some large weights here for this race with six out of the ten runners carrying 59kg or more.

Michael Costa and Jim Byrne combine with Phobetor (2). Last start he ran an enormous race behind Vega One in Listed grade. He gets in here well and despite one run on a heavy track for not much luck, I think he will get through the ground ok.

Sornja (4) from the Stephen Lee stables at Ballina is a dual acceptor. She has won her past two starts and has some adequate form on wet going.

Written in Vain (1) won last start at Bathurst on soft ground and has one failure on the heavy. She has Wendy Peel riding – so a small weight relief here for the apprentice.

Kevin Kemp from Toowoomba brings Zou Der Zee (5) down here. This gelding ran a close second a few years ago in the Big Maiden that is raced here annually. Since then he has gone on to win several starts. He is an absolute duck in the wet and Clayton Gallagher rides for owner and bookmaker Con Searle who will be fielding at Grafton.

One thing is for sure – if he wins Searle will be over the moon and probably will let us on in the feature Ramornie/Grafton Cup doubles that he runs each year at his stand. Last year I claimed him for the first time in many years – watch out Searle I am coming for you! Then again, maybe your colleague Tony Carlton will be betting silly overs like he was last year – maybe I will just knock him off his stand!

Selections: 2-4-5-1

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Race 3

A class 2 race over 1100 metres.

Marmaris (1) resumes after a 7-week spell after a great recent barrier trial for new trainer Matthew Dunn at Murwillumbah. His stable apprentice Emily Atkinson is in the saddle. There are some gear changes to this gelding with the most notable being a tongue tie going on. Has seen some wet tracks as well – one to keep your eye on in the markets.

Impulsive Maneuver (2) is trained by Jim Jarvis who has yet to crack a winner at the Carnival this year but has gone close! This gelding is second up with Matthew McGuren, the leading Carnival rider, in the saddle. He has won second up and on a heavy track, so he ticks a few boxes. I hope that the famous hot pink and white V silks salute here!

Nick the Skip (5) is trained at the Gold Coast by Toby Edmonds. He steps up from a maiden win last start to a Class 2 race – a tough assignment! He may push forward and sit in behind the leaders. He has no disclosed wet track form so we have to take that on trust. Matthew McGillivray is in the saddle.

Vacate (3) is trained by Brett Dodson and will be ridden by the Ranga – Matthew Bennett! This runner has multiple gear changes – too many to talk about. Clearly, they are hoping for an improved effort with the changes this week. I think the drop back to 1100 metres will assist him as well.

Selections: 2-5-1-3 rough chance 4

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Race 4

A class 2 over the mile – it looks a tough race!

I like Chris O’Brien to get a win aboard Onemore Sapphire (2) trained by Terry Evans.

This runner has been very consistent of late running in Sydney. I think his last start run at Rosehill was full of merit when not many runners were making ground and he stormed home over 1400 metres late to claim third, beaten just under a length from an impossible position. The step up in distance should suit him – I think he is a great each way chance.

Rock Sonic (3) is from the Tony Newing stables. He is having a good Carnival with three winners on the board already. This runner resumed here on Day 1 and looked like he needed the run. His only career win has been over the mile. I expect him to strip fitter for that effort and be right in this race. Matthew McGuren in the saddle.

La Pulga (5) is from the Michael Costa stables on the Gold Coast. After reviewing his past two starts, he looks like he is crying out for the mile. He is third up here and should be ready to fire – solid soft track form and Sean Cormack in the saddle.

Malawi Gold (6) from Matthew Dunn yards could be a rough place chance. His last start effort at Eagle Farm was okay.

Boom Gate (9) from the Brett Cavanough stables won a Class One and broke his maiden last start at Muswellbrook over 1710 metres – so he will run the distance. Just not too sure how he will go on the wet track. Jay Ford is in the saddle and if there is any backing for this one it may be worth following the money.

Delayed Response (10) comes out of the Grafton Prelude race on Day 1 – this form seems to be quite strong. She is second up here and Raymond Spokes stays aboard. I think that she is a serious contender here to get the job done. She will be some decent odds as well and will not mind the sting out of the ground.

Selections: 2-10-3-5 rough chances 4,6 & 9

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Race 5

This is the BIG MAIDEN that is on the program each year to be contested over 1000 metres.

It is tough to line the form up as they are coming from all over the place – even tougher to find one with good wet track efforts. Keep your eyes on the markets for any late betting moves is my tip!

Let’s just look at them in race book order.

Maspoeta (4), from the Dunn stables with Jim Byrne on, comes back from 1500 metres last start to 1000 metres. He is very fit and will appreciate the sting out of the ground but barrier 14 poses some problems.

Matello (5) trained by Tony Flatley resumes here with Jason Collett to ride. He may race well fresh – barrier 15 is no favours.

Moringa’s Hiemie (7) is a Michael Trihey runner with Matt McGuren aboard. He has a tremendous record at Grafton and does like soft tracks. They have drawn barrier 17 and his recent starts have been over 1200 metres. I really think he is better over the shorter distance and he was only narrowly beaten when he resumed from a spell by Julianne’s Wish who won here on Sunday. With some luck from the barrier he may be a solid chance.

Tejaan (12) is trained at Lismore by Danny Bowen and Ben Looker rides. This is her third run from a spell. Again, she drops back from 1200 metres to the 1000 metres which I think she will be better suited by. She is drawn well but has no disclosed wet weather form.

In a Step (14) is trained by Brett Dodson and will be ridden by Jon Grisedale. She is only a 2-year-old taking on the older horses. She has had three runs and not been out of the money in all three starts. She likes to race on the speed – each start leading or racing near the front. Barrier 16 will pose a difficult task here.

Jenny Graham has an emergency in the race - I’m Fluent (18) - who won a recent barrier trial at Port Macquarie in good style. She will like the wet track and maybe if she makes the field could be one at some odds for your exotic bets.

Look this is tough this race. Keep your eye on the market movers – that may give you the best information for this race!

Selections: 7-4-14-12 rough chances 5,9 & 18

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Race 6 – 2019 TURSA Grafton Guineas

One of the feature races of the Carnival over 1600 metres – this race is always very competitive!

Charmed Princess (4) won the Prelude last week. She looked good winning that and she will like the wet conditions. I hope that the Newing/McGuren team strikes again at the Carnival in this feature race!

Commander (1) comes off two solid wins in Sydney and is trained by John Thompson. His last start on a heavy track was very impressive racing close to the lead – he will be very competitive with Rachel King to ride.

Godolphin who won nearly everything over the Brisbane Winter Carnival have a nicely bred filly called Waka (7) second up here after a solid run at Hawkesbury over 1300 metres on a heavy track. She gets in well here at the weights and they must think she is a serious contender with the booking of Jim Byrne to ride her.

Dulette (5) from the Wayne Wilkes stables comes off a strong win over 1400 metres on a heavy track at Rosehill two weeks ago. That was his second win in a row. Local jockey Ben Looker rides him this start.

Sue Grills trains Hammoon Ballad (6) with Robert Thompson aboard. She won last start over a mile at Tamworth so she is at peak fitness – just not too certain how she may go on the wet track and a horrific barrier draw of 15.

Withering (10) from the Toby Edmonds stable could be a knock out chance after an improved effort last start winning at Eagle Farm over 1400 metres.

Selections: 4-7-1-5 rough chances 6 & 10

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Race 7 2019 Grafton District Services Club – RAMORNIE

The wet track brings a new dimension to the feature race.

I think there is a topical tip for the race – as it is Origin Day and we all know that I love the BLUES. In fact I BLEED BLUE – I am going for the James Cummings trained Haunted (6) to win with Rachel King aboard. I think she would be the first female jockey to win the race ever – if not definitely in the last 50 years! History will be created – well let’s hope! Haunted is undefeated first up in three starts and loves wet tracks! His barrier trial was not flash last week – but he wasn’t pushed along on the heavy track.

The winner of the John Carlton Cup on Day 1 was Malea Magic (16). She raced well that day and does have solid wet track form. Belinda Hodder stays aboard here again for this assignment and drawn barrier 1 she should get the run of the race.

Chris Munce has a two-pronged attack on the feature race with Snoopy (7) and Smartypy (14). Snoopy (7) will be ridden by Michael Murphy who has a great record on this gelding. He is drawn well and loves wet tracks and always races well fresh. His barrier trial on 20 June was impressive, winning it easy. It looks like Munce has him ready to show up here.

Top Striker (9) was super winning last start at Rosehill over 1100 metres on a heavy track when he stormed down the track out wide and won at $41. This gelding is trained by Greg Hickman and he has won feature races here at Grafton in the past. Ben Looker has been booked for the ride.

Care To Think (1) has been trialling well and has some solid soft track form. His trial on the heavy track at Deagon was good and it would suggest that he will handle the track. Jim Byrne renews his association with the Matthew Dunn trained gelding. He will be running home strongly. I am just worried about the weight and a heavy track first up.

Keen Array (2) is one of three runners from the Edmonds Racing team on the Gold Coast. Keen Array (2) will be ridden by Matthew McGuren whohe is looking for his maiden victory in the Ramornie. This runner has been racing in Group and Listed races and is fourth up this preparation. I really think he is a chance here to win this race if he gets any luck in running from a diabolical barrier draw – barrier 19.

Edmonds’ other runners are Whypeeo (8) who backs up after a strong run last weekend – blinkers have been added for this run – and Havasay (10) who won this race last year. He has been out of form but his trial last week at Deagon suggested that he will race well here.

Selections: 6-16-7-1 rough chances 2, 9 & 14

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Race 8

The last race is a Class 2 over 1100 metres. Then we are all packing up and heading to the Grafton District Services Club (GDSC) for the annual Grafton Cup Calcutta and to watch NSW SMASH Queensland in State of Origin 3 – the decider for 2019!

Jason Collett rides the topweight Miss Scorcher (1) who must carry a mammoth 63 kilograms. She is trained by Graeme Murray and has great form in higher grade races than this. On paper she looks the winner – but will the track and the weight stop her?

Friends of Wren (3) is first up here for local trainer Terry McCarthy. She will be leading this field for sure and may prove difficult to run down in the final race of the day. Jay Ford is in the saddle.

Dixie (4) from Matthew Dunn yards won first up after some nice trials. She will get back in the field but will be storming home late.

His other runner is Manila Lass (7) who won’t get that far back and has had two recent trials. She may be one to pop up at odds.

It’s a tough race to finish off the day – not many of them have wet track form so we could see a blow-out result!

Selections: 1-3-7-4

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Jockey’s Challenge

Jim Byrne (QLD) and Matthew McGuren (NSW) have some nice rides. I think Matt may just get the verdict – GO NSW.

Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4 NSW only)

2,4,7 / 2,4,5/ 1,2,5 / 2,3,5,10 - cost is $108 to $1

Value Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4 NSW only)

4,7 / 2,4 / 2,5 / 2,3,10 - cost is $24 to $1

Quaddie (races 5 to 8)

4,7,12,14 / 1,4,5,7 / 1,2,6,7,16 / 1,3,7 - cost is $240 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 5 to 8)

4,7 / 1,4,7 / 6,7,16 / 1,3 - cost is $36 to $1

Treble (races 6 to 8)

1,4,7 / 1,2,6,7,16 / 1,3,7 - cost is $45 to $1

BIG 6 (NSW only races 3 to 8)

2,5 / 2,3,10 / 4,7,14 / 1,4,7 / 6,7,16 / 1,3 - cost is $324 to $1

WINNO V ANTHONY COLLINS

The Carnival features our tipping competition WINNO v COLLINS. Day 2 of the Carnival produced a massive effort by WINNO who picked 7 of the 9 winners on the program as well as tipping the last trifecta and first 4. To be fair to Mr Collins – I hoped I have not peaked too early! Be sure to check out our updated tips and thoughts on Facebook each morning of the Carnival as we amend or alter the tips according to the scratchings and track conditions!

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