WINNO'S WINNERS: DARWIN, AUGUST 5: CUP DAY
By Darren Winningham | Sunday, August 4, 2019
DARWIN CUP CARNIVAL – MONDAY 5 AUGUST – THE GREAT NORTHERN DARWIN CUP 2019
Day EIGHT of the Darwin Cup Carnival is the Great Northern Darwin Cup Day.
The weather is scheduled to be nice and hot again on Monday – WINNO is getting a tan in winter.
The track is rated “GOOD” and the rail is in the true position for the meeting. Horses that were swooping appeared to have the best luck on Saturday – maybe this will continue on Cup day.
The feature of 365 Palmerston Sprint Day had to be the win of Captain Punch in the main race. Drawn the outside barrier and carrying 61 kilogram he ran a track record to claim consecutive victories in the premier sprint race in the Northern Territory.
A massive 9 race program for the Darwin Cup Day – time to get into it.
NB: As this form assessment was made prior to race-day, please check final fields and track conditions for any changes on the day
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Race 1
I like Hattan Man (8) to go okay here. He comes off some solid runs and he won last start. Tayarn Halter trains this runner and Vanessa Arnott will ride him again after winning on him last start over 1100 metres.
Love Club (4) – are you feeling the love in Darwin in 2019? This won his last start over 1100 metres here – has had a fortnight let up and should be ready again to go hard here.
Patriot Day (5) has been racing over 1000 and 1100 metres and has been very consistent. Mitchell Aitken takes the ride.
It’s a tough way to start the program.
Selections: 8-4-5-1
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Race 2
The Simone Montgomerie Lightning Plate – a race named after a talented jockey who passed away after a tragic race fall in 2013. Each year the Darwin Turf Club honour her memory with this race. Her family coming to the course as well – it is always an emotional scene after the race regardless whoever wins it.
Street Life (4) won a month ago here over 1000 metres and has had one more run since over 1100 metres. He trained by Karen Byrnes and Jarrod Todd is in the saddle again. I think that he is a nice chance to take out this feature race on the program.
The one down in the weights here but up in class is So Stoic (9). Chris Pollard trains this runner and he has run some nice times here over the 1000 metres. Now he is down in the weights he really looks like a nice each way chance.
Brooklyn (1) trained by and will ridden by Carl Spry. Has been in consistent form winning his last two starts going into this race. It has a very solid record over this distance. Must be put in your exotic bets
Selections: 4-9-1-3
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Race 3
A small field here to go around.
Looking For You (8) has been favourite in several of his recent starts here. Last start he shot away and was run down late. He is another nice ride for Jarrod Todd here – maybe a chance for a race to race double!
The other runner that I like is Kronos (2) who debuted here in Darwin five weeks ago and won that race. Since then maybe he suffered the second up syndrome when he was caught wide and didn’t really finish the race off. He will have stripped fitter for that run and has had three weeks between runs. This is the one to be on here.
Divine Red (1) looked like he needed the run first up and will be fitter for the effort – he will go well here.
Eastwood (7) flew home last start to score on the line. Raymond Vigar stays aboard and must be considered again after that effort.
Selections: 2-8-1-7
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Race 4
I am hoping for some scratchings in this race to get my selection a run. Neil Dyer trains Ruth’s Boy (14). His runs have been consistent in the top end. Given some luck in running, and if he can make the field, I think he could cause an upset.
Fire ‘N’ Vice (12) ran last weekend and was a good second – a rough hope.
Rockatomic (3) won well here over 1100 metres. He led on that occasion. No one took him on and he dominated in front to go away from them and destroy the field by 5.5. lengths. He will probably trail here as there is some speed in the race and he will not want to go forward and take them on.
Captain California (4) was sent out a short-priced favourite here last start and was caught in the worst part of the track. Trained by Michael Hickmott they will be keen to back this runner again on the day.
Selections: 14-3-12-4
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Race 5 The Magic Millions Handicap
I need plenty of scratchings here for my two top selections to make the field as they are both emergencies.
I think that the Gary Clarke trained Grammar Boy (14) has drawn well for the race – barrier 1 and should get the run of the race. He will probably settle midfield, but he does have a solid finish that could see him win the Magic Millions sponsored race.
The other one is Commissar (15) trained by Philip Cole and to be ridden by Jarrod Todd. This one will not get so far back so this may be a reason to favour it over my other selection. It should race in behind the speed and should be able to let down well in the straight.
Makin the Grade (9) is a dual acceptor – if he runs here, he will be well placed and should be a chance.
Raymond Vigar rides Tycoon Dancer (8) for Angela Forster. He missed the start hopelessly last start and somehow still managed to make up ground from an impossible position and run a gallant second. If he can get away on terms with the rest of the field he should be very competitive on his last run.
Selections: 14-8-15-9 rough chance 10
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Race 6 Ladbrokes Handicap
Jarrod Todd has another nice ride here aboard the Philip Cole trained Harry Home Harry (4) who comes off a last start win here and goes up in grade. He will stalk the leaders and hopefully come down the crown of the track and get the chocolates.
The Auditor (2) is second up here for the new stable. Despite being beaten 9 lengths last start he may have taken some benefit from a look at his new surroundings and may strip fitter for that effort.
McIntyre (2) got all the luck last start – surging late along the rails to win in a blanket finish. He is second up this weekend after that win last weekend. He looked good in that win and looks progressive and may pose a serious threat to his opposition.
Jaeffkay (6) is a dual acceptor – maybe he will run here. He is well placed and will be hard to hold out.
Ticket To Paris (10) is having his fourth run from a spell – each time he has been presented at the track this preparation he has shown some improvement – maybe this race is his/ Sairyn Fawke is in the saddle for Angela Forster.
Another rough chance is Recording To Win (12) who finally broke his maiden status last start.
Selections: 4-3-2-6 rough chances 9, 10 & 12
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Race 7
Not a race I am keen on – too tough.
The topweight Java (1) has be racing well – needs a change of luck.
The stable mate Downhearted (3), to be ridden by Carl Spry, is not without a genuine hope as well. It was forced to move forward last start early and then faded out late – maybe ridden quieter it will be a better chance.
The Neil Dyer runner is Junior Burger (10) who gets into the race well here with the race conditions after a solid win last start over the mile here when he led. Jockey Terry Treichel remains aboard.
Selections: 10-1-3-6 rough chances 2 & 12
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Race 8
A 1900 metre race here – the battle of the fittest!
I note a serious gear change on the Michael Hickmott trained General Factor (8) with the addition of a tongue tie. He will lead them – if he can settle and the change of gear does the trick, he will be very hard to beat.
Sir Garfield (4) has been racing in much better-quality fields and drops back on class here and will be competitive in this class of race. He will sit in behind the speed – he will run the distance out and will be hard to hold out.
Neil Dyer has Mutin (10) backing up after his last run 5 days ago. In past years when he has done this his horses are normally very competitive. Keep your eye on the markets with this one. He has been racing over the mile in his past three starts and steps up to this longer distance where he has done very well previously.
Borlung (6) may be a drifter in the markets as he has drawn a terrible barrier – do not be concerned too much with the wide drawer as he loves to swoop home wide and fast late.
Selections: 8-4-10-6 rough chance 7
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Race 9 THE GREAT NORTHERN DARWIN CUP 2019
Lieder (2) has finished in the placings in the past two Darwin Cups and he is favourite to finally win the race in 2019. He won the Ladbrokes Alice Springs Cup by an incredible ten lengths in May – can he finally win the Darwin Cup that has eluded him for years in 2019 against some stiff opposition?
Poet’s Landing (6) has the x-factor to win the Darwin Cup and a win would see connections secure the Ladbrokes $100,000 Triple Crown Bonus. He started his winning streak with a victory at Ipswich and he has since gone on to make it three wins from as many starts at Fannie Bay, including impressive victories in the Darwin Guineas and the NT Derby. This is his Grand Final – will they collect the $100,000 added prizemoney – stay tuned on Monday afternoon.
Ihtsahymn (1) is the topweight for the Cup. He has been nothing short of outstanding since he was sent to the Northern Territory. He carried 66.5 kilograms to win at Broome before he showed an outstanding turn-of-foot to finish over the top of his rivals over the mile here.
Lotion (8) ran a gutsy second to Ihtsahymn (1) in the lead up after sitting near the speed, kicking away late and looking home. Just couldn’t quite finish the job and was grabbed late. Is a two-time winner at the trip. Maybe with Sairyn Fawke coming from South Australia to ride this one he may not go to the lead so early and could take out the big race.
Ash Grey (3), to be ridden by Matthew Palmer, is a last start winner that could fill a place.
Adatto (13) will need some luck in making the field as it is an emergency – it could show up if he gets a chance here.
Selections: 6-2-1-8 rough chance 3 & 13
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Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
1,4,9 / 1,2,7,8 / 3,4,12,14 / 8,9,14,15 - cost is $192 to $1
Quaddie (races 5 to 9)
2,3,4,6 / 1,3,10 / 4,6,8,10 / 1,2,6,8 - cost is $192 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 5 to 9)
3,4 / 1,10 / 4,6,8 / 1,2,6 - cost is $36 to $1
Treble (races 6 to 9)
1,3,10 / 4,6,8,10 / 1,2,6,8 - cost is $48 to $1
Jockeys Challenge
An open market today – Jarrod Todd looks to have some nice chances.
Good luck and good punting!
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