BROWNIE'S BLOG: THINGS ARE WARMING UP IN THIS VERY UNUSUAL QUEENSLAND WINTER CARNIVAL

By Graham Potter | Thursday, May 21, 2020

There has been a lot of talk about what will happen in the coming weeks in terms of which jockeys will get the coveted Group 1 ride in the Stradbroke because of the unusual circumstances in the way the race will present itself this year.

Interstate jockeys wanting to ride here would have to quarantine for two weeks before being allowed on track and they are running out of time to do so (I think Saturday is the cut off date). Their enthusiasm to come here, I am sure, has not only being dented by that ruling but also by the fact that there are only two Group 1 races up here this year and also that the prize for the feature races that are still left standing in the reduced ‘carnival’ schedule has been drastically reduced.

I think the fact that there is just not enough big racing and the money has stopped is ultimately the reason most of these jockeys will decide not to come. If it was the usual carnival schedule, I think you would have found that half-a-dozen or so jockeys would have been happy to go into quarantine and stay here for an extended period.

Blake Shinn committed himself to the Queensland Carnival last year … arriving early and staying the distance … but it is just not worth it to do that this year for the southern state-based jockeys. For what they would earn just riding at normal race meetings in Melbourne and Sydney during this time … it is just not worth it for them for what is available here now.

While it might not be a cast of the usual suspects, the reality comes down to the age old principle that, whatever the circumstances, you have got to be in the right place at the right time to get the right result … and this year, because of these special circumstances, therein lies an opportunity for those who might not normally get their chance, the hard working people who deserve a crack at a big race instead of having all of the bigger name jockeys sweeping in and getting the prize.
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Much of the discussion has centred on the weight scale situation for the Stradbroke.

With the bulk of the Stradbroke field currently set to carry 54kg or less that would appear to translate into a real opportunity this year for light weight jockeys, or for jockeys who want to put in the hard yards to become a light weight jockey for the day but, again, this happens, at least in part, every year.

We have got good riders here who can ride light so these could be special times for them if they can hunt down a Group 1 ride. Jockey managers are going to be working hard to try and convince trainers to put some of these unheralded jockeys on in big races.

The only way we’ll know if the unproven amongst them are good enough to ride in big races is if they get the opportunity to do so. There is only one testing ground for big race action and that is big race action. When you get there it’s a case of sink or swim! Some don’t get a second chance.

In any given year, the weights dictate things for most jockeys and it is stating the obvious to say that many jockeys have lost rides because of their weight … and some have lost big race winners. Srikandi was my last big one. I won the Victory Stakes on her but then couldn’t ride here in the Stradbroke (which she went on to win) because of my weight.

It happens every carnival. Jockeys lose rides because of the weights (or other reasons) and others have the opportunity to step in.

At this stage, for riders juggling for a place in the Stradbroke lineup, it is all about opportunity. It took me a long time to get my opportunity but I was fortunate in that I was able to capitalise on that and build my career from there.

I am keen to see who will take their opportunity and if the Stradbroke will provide the similar stepping stone for a jockey this year.
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Before we get to that … there is some good racing this weekend.

The Group 2 Victory Stakes has always been recognised as a good lead up race for the Stradbroke. There have generally been some quality horses racing in it. I was fortunate enough to win it on Buffering and Srikandi and they were obviously very good horses.

My feeling on that though … as a lead up race … would be to ask how many Victory Stakes winners have won the Stradbroke. Srikandi did … but I don’t think there are too many, particular in recent times. I don’t know the answer but that would be an interesting fact.

It will be a good contest on Saturday and, with the return to Eagle Farm after a fair absence, how the track plays is going to attract a lot of attention in its own right.

I’m sure the Southern trainers will be having a good look how it races with regard to whether to send up their horses … or not. Personally, I take favourable pre-race-day assessments after a track has had a break, which again have been made this time around, with a grain of salt.

I would rather see what happens under race conditions with my own eyes and make my own judgement on that … and I think that is exactly what a lot of trainers will be doing.

In fact, I’m sure a lot of minds will be made up after Saturday.
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Even though it is only a little over two weeks away, it is difficult to assess the Stradbroke at this stage.

As things stand now, Godolphin have no less than seven runners in the top twenty order of merit for the Stradbroke. You can guarantee they won’t have seven here so it’s a matter of which ones they decide to bring.

They may have already made that decision with Kementari because they brought him up here early … so he is probably a definite. Trekking (last year’s Stradbroke winner) has got the form again. He has been there and done it before … but, geez, he is getting up in the weights. Is he definitely coming?

Is Santa Ana Lane coming? He is the class horse of the race and it would be a big thing for the club if they can get him to come.

And the other thing is, if Trekking and Santa Ana Lane don’t come do the weights get raised?

There are so many questions … so there is still a lot to be played out over the next two weeks.

It is going to be very interesting. I guess it is a case of ‘watch this space.’
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The Champagne Classic is the other Group 2 race on Saturday.

This is also a firmly entrenched as a lead up race … this time to the Group 1 JJ Atkins … but, with the race distance for the JJ Atkins coming back to 1400m (from 1600m) this year it does change things a little bit.

We have some very promising local two-year-olds, two of which who are likely to be involved in both races.

You can’t say much about Isotope over the 1400m because he hasn’t gone beyond 1100m yet but he does look very exciting. I will be watching his Champagne Classic run closely.

Rothfire is in the same boat with regard to the 1400m trip but to a lesser degree. He has raced well up to 1200m … so for the Champagne Classic you would definitely expect him to be a big player … but I would be querying him once he got past the 1200m.

It is probably the same with Wisdom Of Water, who is not in the Champagne Classic. They are all high-speed horses … not to mention the fact that Wisdom of Water appears to be a bit of a handful. He has obviously got a few little tricks and you don’t mind them when they can run that well.

I remember I was keen on Wisdom Of Water at his first start. Everybody was saying how good he was. He went head to head with Rothfire. They were out by about twenty lengths and obviously Rothfire kicked on and won and Wisdom Of Water stopped and ran last.

But they changed things around with Wisdom Of Water as all good trainers do and his form has been pretty good since.

So, this local trio of speedsters certainly deserve every respect.

My feeling though is that looking to find the winner this week (in the Champagne Classic) and in the J J Atkins … you could be looking for two different horses.
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As far as the interstate two-year-old challenge is concerned, as we know Chris Waller and the Snowden’s have done so well over the last number of years … they time their horses so well and they bring their good ones up for the Group 1’s.

We probably haven’t got any real idea of the final field for the JJ Atkins yet and what Waller and the Snowdens might be thinking. They might have one just coming for the JJ Atkins that is not even coming for the Champagne Classic.

As far as trying to find the JJ Atkins winner, I would like to see a horse who has been hitting the line strongly … whether it has been in the Sydney form over the last couple of weeks or if it comes out of Saturday.

It could well be a runner from down south because, as I say, I do have a query on our three top liners at the trip but it would be foolish for me to make a call on that until I have the final field in front of me.
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Lastly, a special mention for trainer Trevor Miller.

It was great to see Trevor win a feature race …the Wayne Wilson Quality … at the Sunshine Coast last Friday.

Trevor won something like a dozen Sunshine Coast premierships in his heyday and Victory Eight provided the veteran trainer with the latest in a long line of significant winners when he trumped his rivals in a thrilling, blanket finish under the guidance of Sean Cormack at a starting price of $61.

Everybody will tell you … it couldn’t have happened to a nicer man.

Good on you Trev!

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