MY CALL: I'M TAKING THE NICCANOVA TICKET IN THE GROUP 1 STRADBROKE HANDICAP RAFFLE
By David Fowler | Wednesday, June 3, 2020
David Fowler is the principal thoroughbred caller for Radio TAB. David, who is a keen form student and punter, has enjoyed a lifetime involvement in the racing media. His personal blog, ‘My Call’, appears exclusively on HRO.
This week’s TAB Stradbroke is a raffle.
A classy raffle, mind you, and that’s a good thing.
The brutal prizemoney haircut afforded to the state’s signature race ($350,00 down from $1.5 million) hasn’t interfered with its quantity or quality.
It’s a typical Stradbroke. The betting is, and will be, fast and furious, a welcome spin off from the handicap conditions.
And there is added lustre to the event with topweight Trekking out to defend his Stradbroke crown yet facing a tough assignment with the 58kg topweight.
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Always happy to locate value in the market, I’m selecting No 3 Niccanova, currently at $21 TAB fixed.
Take it from me, that’s generous odds.
Steve Tregea has managed Niccanova well in his 25-start career which has netted nine wins and several minor placings.
More often in the deep end than not, he is already a Group 3 winner (Fred Best Classic) and a winner three times at Listed level (Bernborough, Recognition, Brisbane Handicaps).
Apart from his flashing light run in the Victory Stakes a fortnight ago, when charging to the line behind Victorem, there are other ticks in boxes worth pointing out.
His best form is in the early stages of his preparations (six of his nine wins) while Jimmy Orman has an excellent association with Niccanova, having partnered him in five of those nine wins.
Totally committed to the riding engagement, Orman will reduce his riding weight to 53.5kg, a half kilo over the allotted handicap weight.
It’s the second lightest weight he has carried in that 25-start career.
Mapping to settle centre field, I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t produce that charging finish we are accustomed to and hopefully he can find the line first.
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Good three-year-olds generally race well in the Stradbroke and this well-established fact should apply to Hightail and Dawn Passage.
It’s hard not to see Hightail with the low gate (4) and the light weight (50) playing a fair hand in the finish.
Hightail has often flown under the radar in contrast to Stradbroke favourite Dawn Passage who has been the flavour of the month after making it three straight in the Fred Best Classic last weekend.
While I believe barriers at Eagle Farm do not play as vital a role in form discussions as in previous days, the outside gate of 18 for Dawn Passage is not ideal.
It virtually ensures he will have to try and pick off the bulk of the field one by one and avoid traffic.
I will make a disclaimer here that there could be a chance they will roll the dice with Dawn Passage and go forward because I don’t see a high level of go-forward speed in this year’s Stradbroke.
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Finally, While Niccanova is essentially at a “roughie’s” price, my best outsider is Deep Image who may be a beneficiary of a lack of tempo.
Good luck.
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