WINNO'S WINNERS: EAGLE FARM, 4 JULY 2020
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, July 2, 2020
EAGLE FARM RACES – SATURDAY 4 JULY 2020
We are back at Eagle Farm this weekend with the track rated “GOOD”. The rail is out 8 metres the entire circuit. I think you should play wide and look for value on the program – you could make plenty!
NB: As these selections were made prior to race-day please check for any changes to track conditions and for any scratchings on the day
Race 1
A small field to start us off – the race has already been devasted by early scratchings.
The Gollan Racing runner Garibaldi (9) has been racing in black type races and has dropped back to a Class 3 event. He looks well placed – Ryan Maloney aboard could be a solid way to start the day.
The NSW border jumpers Broken Arrows (1) and Invictus Prince (4) must be respected – in particular Broken Arrows (1), trained by David Pfeiffer, who has struck some very ordinary wet tracks in recent runs could improve dramatically back on top of the ground here.
Selections:
9 – Garibaldi
7 – All Shiraz
1 – Broken Arrows
4 – Invictus Prince
Race 2
A small but competitive race.
Galtero (4), from Tony Gollan Racing, will be ridden by Jim Byrne and he will set up a genuine tempo for the race. This runner can be cheeky sometimes and, if he gets away with some cheap sectionals, Byrne could rate him to win the race from the front.
But …
I am tipping the Chris Waller trained runner Stardome (5) to be ridden by Luke Dittman. I did mention last weekend how Luke was flying under the radar and had been riding in exceptional form. Then he comes out and rides two Group 3 feature winners for the Waller Racing satellite stable on the Gold Coast. It was a polished display of riding!
Stardome won here two starts ago sitting close to the speed and outstaying the opposition in a dour display. He then went to Doomben and struck a heavy track. He raced well enough but the track brought him undone. Back to a firm surface and Eagle Farm - I think he will be back in the winner’s stalls.
The stable mate is Humbolt Current (1) to be ridden by Michael Cahill. He has been racing on winter wet tracks in Sydney for his past three runs. He goes better on top of the ground and I expect we should see an improvement.
Just with these stayers that come from Sydney, they seem to need a run locally before they win – he may be one to follow next start.
Selections:
5 – Stardome
4 – Galtero
6 – Ocean Addict
1 – Humbolt Current
Race 3
This is an even affair.
Gollan Racing is well represented with Solar Star (5) coming off a win here three weeks ago. She is well drawn again and will be able to get the run of the race. Ryan Maloney retains the ride.
Elixir (6), from the Les Kelly stables on the Gold Coast, was gallant in defeat three weeks ago when narrowly defeated by Thy Kingdom Come. The form out of that race hasn’t really held up, however, this runner is now fourth up and should be ready to fire.
Plenty (10), trained by Stuart Kendrick is one of the most improved runners. I think you must forgive that last start failure after he had posted three consecutive wins. The quick back up did not suit him and, with three weeks since his last run and Jake Bayliss aboard, he could fire here at the good odds of $7.
Selections:
5 – Solar Star
6 – Elixir
10 – Plenty
2 – Connoisseur
Rough chances – (11) Skate To Paris (13) Red Doulton
Race 4
It’s that stable again. The Gollan Racing pair look to have the race between them – Amicitia (2) and Lashoni (11).
I think the longer priced runner Lashoni (11), to be ridden by Mark Du Plessis, represents good value here at around $15. She has struck some wet tracks recently and her form has been equivocal on wet tracks. I think back to the Farm and a firm surface she will be right in this race.
Her stable mate is Amicitia (2) who ran second to Solar Star (see Race 3 – 5) last start. If Solar Star wins race 3 it will give you a strong lead for her chances in this race.
Star of Michelin (1) loves this circuit and get conditions to suit here this weekend. He is third up. He has remained undefeated twice third up in his career and, with that statistic in mind and Dale Smith aboard, despite the big weight he is a genuine chance.
Selections:
11 – Lashoni
2 – Amicitia
1 – Star of Michelin
4 – Naval Strike
Race 5
A Listed race here for the two-year-old runners.
Heathcote Racing trains Bellissimi Amici (6) who resumed last start over 1100 metres where the tempo was all wrong the race too short, so just forget she went around for mine. This weekend with the set weight conditions and the longer distance I think she is a great gamble to win the race with Stephanie Thornton in the saddle.
With Ready For Magic (3) in the race there will be genuine tempo and I expect Jim Byrne to take this runner to the lead and try and run them into the ground.
Queen Sweeper (7) produced an awesome effort to win last start. That was over 1110 metres – she just cruised up to the opposition and put them to the sword. Dale Smith stays aboard this Stuart Kendrick trained filly. I am just not too sure about her ability to run out a strong 1400 metres. Probably will have egg on my face after saying that! I am sure that Dale will remind me IF she wins the race!
The runner I have a massive watch on is the Gerald Ryan, NSW trained Zero To Hundred (11) with Jimmy Orman booked to ride. She made a striking debut at Warwick Farm on a heavy track. Her sectionals in the race where great for the track conditions. They must have an opinion of her to send her north to try and claim some black type. Keep your eye on any market moves for this runner – she is around $8 presently.
Selections:
6 – Bellissimi Amici
11 – Zero To Hundred
7 – Queen Sweeper
1 – Tumbler Ridge
Rough chance – (3) Ready For Magic
Race 6
The first leg of the Quaddie this weekend is over 1000 metres.
Looks a tough race on paper.
I have been waiting for this runner to resume for a few weeks now as he always races well fresh. He is trained by Kelly Schweida Racing – Guard of Honour (2). That’s probably a topical tip for the 4 July (USA) we all know how they like Honour over there. Their leader Donald Trump exudes that quality in spades, doesn’t he?
Guard of Honour (2) resumes from a short 10-week spell. He loves to get back in his races and flash home late. There is no shortage of speed in this race and he should get perfect conditions to suit his style of racing. Look for Orman to be seven or eight wide and flashing home late.
Les Ross Racing has some live chances here as well with Mishani Hustler (4) and Defence Missile (9). Both have been racing consistently and could pop up here.
Royal Witness (7), from Edmonds Racing, detested the heavy track last start. Overlook that run and he is a genuine chance back on a surface that he thrives on.
Selections:
2 – Guard of Honour
4 – Mishani Hustler
7 – Royal Witness
9 – Defence Missile
Rough chance – (10) Wirnpa
Race 7
The Robert Heathcote runner Stuttering (3) has resumed with two solid wins. The Love Conquers All gelding is looking for a hat trick of wins. This is his toughest test to date, but winning form is good form! Mark Du Plessis is looking to retain his 100% strike rate aboard him this weekend. He will be drawn wide and have to jump well to take up a forward position, like he normally does, but he should be able to follow Master Jamie (1) across the field and be one pair back behind the leaders. He has a wonderful career record only being out of the money in once (on debut) in nine career starts.
Master Jamie (1) was sent out a very short priced favourite at Rockhampton when first up from a spell. He did acquit himself well – but never got the chocolates. He is second up here this weekend and his massive weight (which he deserves and has earned) is the major concern I have with him. 63.5 kilograms is an imposing weight to carry. Bubba Tilley will be eating KFC all week as he will not be riding light this weekend.
Quantico (5) is a NSW runner from the John O’Shea stables. He was incredibly impressive when resuming at Newcastle over 1200 metres carrying a massive weight. He did not have the best of luck in running and overcome some adversity to get the job done. He goes up in grade here but carries 4.5 kilograms less than last start. Andrew Mallyon is aboard – he could be a big surprise packet.
Les Ross trains River Rocket (11) who was bold last start leading for all the race except the final 50 metres when Stuttering (3) reeled him in late.
Selections:
3 – Stuttering
5 – Quantico
1 – Master Jamie
11 – River Rocket
Rough chances – (8) Euro Belle
Race 8
Chris Waller Racing trains Mangione (11) who failed on a heavy track a fortnight ago at Doomben over the mile. I think the drop back in distance and the track conditions brought about this downfall. Back to 1840 metres and a firm track this weekend he is the horse to beat at $8. Michael Cahill has been booked for the ride this week.
The enigma Sir Barnabus (5) – will this be the week he turns up and slays the opposition? He races well here at Eagle Farm. He is dropping back from Group 3 level to open class so there is a fair bit to like about his chances this weekend and he has Taylor Marshall aboard – he has been riding well. With two wins at the distance and three wins at Eagle Farm I think the $14 is overs – and maybe something each way could net you a nice result.
Barefoot (10) from the Tony & Maddy Sears yards in Toowoomba won two starts ago here. She then stepped up to Group 3 level last start and was not disgraced running a gallant fourth. She was just winding up at that point and I think that stepping up to the extra distance will suit her. Jimmy Orman retains his association with the mare.
Red Stina (9) is trained by Rex Lipp and requires a genuine tempo in the race to show up. Kubis (3) will ensure the race is run at a genuine tempo. Tegan Harrison will need to peel out wide on this one and come late.
It is an open race and could lead to an upset result and blow out some Quaddies and Trebles.
Selections:
11 – Mangione
5 – Sir Barnabus
10 – Barefoot
9 – Red Stina
Rough chances – (4) Lotta Creek Gold (7) The Kingdom
Race 9
The last race of the day – ANYTHING CAN WIN THIS!
Everyone knows I am a BLUE – so I must tip the Godolphin runner Multaja (4).
She raced five weeks ago in the Listed Helen Coughlan race at Doomben and was run down in the shadows of the post. She recently won a trial at Doomben with Brad Stewart in the saddle – he is aboard her this weekend. She gives me the feeling that she will strip fitter for that trial and be difficult to beat.
Jami Lady (11), from the Steven O’Dea Racing stables, resumed with a barnstorming win at Eagle Farm over 1000 metres. She has since had a month off racing and then a recent barrier trial to help get her ready for this race. If she races like she did first up she will be difficult to hold out.
River Racer (7) was sensationally backed from $61 to $26 in the Dane Ripper (Group 2) last start when she led all the way and was run down late by, I Love You Lucy (1). She meets that winner 2 kilograms better off this weekend. If it turns out they are leading and winning with the rail out 8 metres here, I would be taking some of the $21 each way.
Look for an improved performance from the Chris Anderson trained Boomtown Lass (12) – I did declare her first up and nearly got the chocolates. She has drawn wide so will need to push forward from the wide barrier, however, she does race well third up.
There are many other chances in the race – play wide here is my final tip!
Selections:
4 – Multaja
11 – Jami Lady
7 – River Racer
6 – In Good Time
Rough chances – (1) Love You Lucy (12) Boomtown Lass
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Jockey’s Challenge
I think the result will come from either Ryan Maloney, Mark Du Plessis or Jimmy Orman. I give a slight edge to Du Plessis but a healthy respect for Orman to be a rough chance.
Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5 NSW only)
4,5,6 / 5,6,10 / 1,2,11 / 6,7,11 - cost is $81 to $1
Value Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)
4,5 / 5,6 / 1,2,11 / 6,11 - cost is $24 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
2,4,7,9 / 1,3,5,11 / 5,9,10,11 / 1,4,6,7,11 - cost is $320 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
4,11,15 / 14,16 / 1,4,5 / 5,6,7 - cost is $54 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
1,3,5,11 / 5,9,10,11 / 1,4,6,7,11 - cost is $80 to $1
WINNO V FLEMO
WINNO beat FLEMO last weekend with some great tipping in a close contest in our tipping competition. We had some good priced winners and place getters last weekend. Be sure to check the up to date and amended tips each Saturday morning on Facebook after any track changes and scratchings!
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