WINNO'S WINNERS: GRAFTON CARNIVAL DAY 3. RAMORNIE DAY, 8 JULY 2020

By Darren Winningham | Monday, July 6, 2020

GRAFTON – RAMORNIE DAY – WEDNESDAY 8 JULY 2019

Day 3 of the GRAFTON CARNIVAL 2020 and it is headlined time-honoured Ramornie Handicap – a race in which some great sprinters have saluted. The track has held up well so far and has been posted as SOFT for the meeting. The rail is in the true position for the entire course and I would expect the jockeys to be hugging the rail early before coming wide for the feature races.

Kristen Buchanan trained the quinella in the Grafton Toyota South Grafton Cup which was won by Jazzland, who now will be aimed at a provincial Cup like the Coffs Harbour, Taree or Port Macquarie Cup. The winner was ridden by Koby Jennings who will be in an enthralling battle with local jockey Ben Looker over the coming days to be crowned “jockey of the Carnival.” The runner-up, Brazen was ridden to perfection by Cejay Graham who had won an earlier race aboard Debrief in race 4 on the Day 2 program.

The riding highlight of the day was Ben Looker riding four of the seven winners.

Now we move on to the Ramornie on Wednesday with a large field. Some of the more favoured runners have drawn wide. Maybe this year will be one of those years where an upset may occur!

It is time to preview the program which I will be watching from the pub in Grafton due to the racing restrictions still in place in NSW.
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Race 1

A sprint race to start off the day.

Tony Newing, from Gosford, had a successful Carnival in 2019 – he continues to bring a team north and excels each year. He has trained a winner on each day of the Carnival so far.

His runner Divine Approach (1) was striking winning first up on Day 1 of the Carnival when ridden by Matthew Bennett. If she turns up an effort like that – she should be winning this race.

Brett Cavanough is another trainer who makes a habit of launching an assault on this Carnival each year. He has a lightly raced filly having her first look at the track – Bit of a Beauty (3). She is fourth up and has had her runs spaced apart. She should race well here. Jason Collett has made the trip north to partner her.

Illecebrous (2) is trained by the powerful Kris Lees stable. She comes off a solid win last start on a heavy track at Port Macquarie. She will sit back and come home late and Andrew Gibbons will ride her again.

Selections:

1 – Divine Approach
3 – Bit Of A Beauty
2 – Illecebrous
7 – Sylvia’s Memory

Race 2

The Winning Edge race over a mile – they have sponsored a race at the CRJC for many years and are long-time supporters of the Carnival.

Arcalette (7) is trained at Murwillumbah by Matthew Dunn Racing and comes off a solid second at Casino. I think getting back to a larger track and up to a mile she will be right up for this challenge.

Zamosa (9) comes off a maiden win at Dalby over 1400 metres and steps up to a mile. The time in that win was good. It is a massive step up in grade. Jason Collett has been booked to partner the mare in her attempt to post consecutive wins.

Brigid of Kildare (5) is bred and is owned by Gerry Harvey from Harvey Norman fame! This mare is trained by Stephen Jones and will be ridden by Rachel King. She is fourth up this run and looks to be looking for a mile this preparation. She has raced on wet tracks in her past two starts. I just think on a firmer surface she will show an improved effort.

Selections:

7 – Arcalette
9 – Zamosa
5 – Brigid of Kildare
4 – Willo Titto

Race 3

Grafton Taxis sponsor this race – the only way to get home or around Grafton when you have had too much to drink over the Carnival!

This time we race over 1400 metres. This is an open race – anything could win this!

I like the recent form of the Gold Coast trained Firebox (4). He has had a freshen up and a recent barrier trial on his home track a week ago. This race suits this runner as he normally races up on the speed and has drawn well so should just roll along close to the lead.

Kijito (6) has a solid record at the Grafton track with 3 wins and as many placings in 9 starts. Kirk Matheson rides this gelding for Neville Boyle. In his latest run at Casino he got too far back out of his ground and worked home well late. Back to the bigger track I expect he will be competitive.

Nashian (8) is a duffer on wet tracks. He has raced on heavy tracks his past two starts – his latest at Randwick in a highway handicap. Big track, firmer surface – he looks perfectly placed by Marc Quinn.

Mitchell Fry, based at Oakey, presents another runner here in Flash Ash (2) again to be ridden by Jason Collett. He won last start at Dalby over 1400 metres. He is only a lightly raced four-year-old gelding with three career starts and has posted 2 wins and 1 placing. He has never won second up but looks a progressive type that must be seriously considered.

Selections:

4 – Firebox
2 – Flash Aah
6 – Kijito
8 – Nashian
Rough chances: (9) Special Union (10) Runamuk

Race 4

A massive maiden field here – it looks a tough assignment!

Toto (9) resumed at Scone last start after a 65-week spell. Despite being well supported in the markets and being sent our favourite I think he needed the run and will strip fitter for that effort. Grant Buckley remains in the saddle. He has had some gear changes and the lugging bit comes off for this run.

The Matthew Dunn trained Marshall Dillon (8) was sent out as a prohibitive odds-on favourite last start at Casino for his debut run. He finished off the race well and this run has the blinkers going on. Matthew McGuren is in the saddle.

Lord John Grey (7) was on debut last start at Taree for trainer Lisa Sheppard. Despite being sent out at $31 he gave a wonderful sight and was untested in the final 150 metres as he could not get clear running. The run was seriously unlucky and at around $12 here in this field he represents great value. He is a five-year-old facing the starter for his second start. Andrew Gibbons takes the ride. I expect him to ensure he gets a good look at the straight by coming wide and making sure he is not restricted and can let down here late.

Dante Alexander (2) has drawn wide otherwise I would have had this runner on top in my selections. He is trained by Jeremy Gask and will be partnered by Rachel King. He has been racing in Class 1 races and drops back to maiden company here. In his last start at Scone he hit the line strongly and posted some amazing sectional times that would see him winning this race. He will appreciate the speed on and watch for a sustained run wide late from this runner.

There is some serious value in this race – but as I have said do not be surprised by a blow out result!

Selections:

9 – Toto
8 – Marshall Dillon
7 – Lord John Grey
2 – Dante Alexander
Rough chances: (4) Furphy (6) Line Up Girls (18) La Cronica

Race 5

Class 2 race over 1100 metres.

Glen Boss makes an appearance at Grafton 2020 aboard that David Atkins trained Two Up (5), who is fourth up this preparation over a distance where he has performed well. Last start he just did not seem to be able to hit the line strongly as he has done in the past. I think that was due to the extremely heavy racetrack he encountered at Port Macquarie – plus they were coming down the outside fence and he was unable to get there first. So, fif you forgive that effort and you must have him on top here.

Mitch Newman comes off a nice win on Sunday with Debrief and presents another runner here – Eighth Immortal (3). This runner, who will be ridden by Mitchell Bell, has been plagued by some wet tracks in his past two starts. He won first up at Gosford over 1100 metres on a good track. I think that he will be suited by the Grafton track.

Camp Rifle (1) is a Tony Newing runner who raced well on day 1 and drops back in distance this start to 1100 metres. Rachel King is aboard for the stable and will be right in the race.

Eleazer (8) comes off a nice run at Scone where he got home well late. Stepping up to 1100 metres will suit him.

Selections:

5 – Two Up
3 – Eighth Immortal
1 – Camp Rifle
8 – Eleazar

Race 6 – 2020 TURSA Grafton Guineas

One of the big feature races of the Carnival over 1600 metres – this race is always extremely competitive!

It is an open field this year with the early markets having it at $5 the field.

Matthew Dunn Racing has two genuine chances here – Ready To Humble (3) and Rothenburg (6). Both both are coming off wins on a Saturday in Sydney last starts.

They both raced very well in their races and posted the best sectionals of their respective races showing me that they have the type of powerful and strong finish that is needed late in this race.

Ready To Humble (3) has won here back in March over 1206 metres. His last start win over 1500 metres at Rosehill showed some strength as he had to cross heels and balance up again late before sprinting well and winning easily. Matthew McGuren is aboard and is looking to post back to back wins in this race after winning it last year aboard the Tony Newing trained Charmed Princess.

The stablemate Rothenburg (6) won over 1400 metres at Rosehill about ten days ago. I just have concern with him running out a strong mile however, in saying that, Jason Collett will hide him away and hopefully get him to settle prior to making his move late.

Group Think (7), trained at Murwillumbah by Edward O’Rourke, raced in the prelude on Day 1 of the Carnival and was narrowly defeated by Prince of Troy (11) who got all the favours in front and was strong enough to hold them off. This race here sets up perfectly for this runner in my opinion. He drops 4 kilograms from that effort and should finish in front of the runners he met in that race.
He will relish the mile and has the services of the jockey of the moment – Ben Looker. Last start he was held up on the fence and had to shift off heels around the 200 metres where he lost all his momentum – this probably cost him the race. But the extra distance this week should see him run a good race at around $20.

John Sargent trains Foxborough (2) who will be ridden by Rachel King. He is third up here and does not really have an impressive record third up, but the race should be run to suit this runner with some speed engaged that should see the race run at a good tempo. He has an good enough record at the mile – 8 starts for 1 win and 6 placings - so there is no question he will get the mile.

Fashchanel (4) is a John O’Shea runner who has been smashed in the markets - $8 into $4.80 so it may pay to keep your eye on this runner.

Kypreos (14) won a maiden on Sunday (July 5) over 1400 metres. He was in some difficulty around the 200 metres before being exposed and sprinting home well late. He could cause a major upset in this race. Mitchell Bell will ride for Con Karakatsanis who has trained 3 winners at the Carnival so far this year.

Selections:

3 – Ready To Humble
2 – Foxborough
7 – Group Think
6 – Rothenburg
Rough chances: (4) Fashchanel (14) Kypreos

Race 7 2020 Grafton District Services Club – RAMORNIE

The race has been supported by trainers all over NSW and QLD – it looks a strong RAMORNIE!

Well, no Havasay this year to defend his last two wins in the race! However, Edmonds Racing does have Mr Bellagio (11) representing the stable who are looking for a record breaking third win in the race! This runner comes off a six week spell after posting three consecutive wins. A recent trail on his home track at the Gold Coast would suggest that he will sprint well fresh with Grant Buckley to ride him for the first time.

We all know that I love the BLUES … in fact I BLEED BLUE. I like the James Cummings (Godolphin) trained Haunted (4) with Andrew Adkins aboard. Who can forget the run last year here in the race. He missed the jump, got held up in the straight and when he finally saw daylight flashed home in a blanket finish to be beaten by 1.4 lengths on a heavy track. That race still HAUNTS me! I thought he was a standout last year for the race. This year he has had a few runs under his belt in Melbourne at Flemington over 1400 metres and has been strong each time at the finish. I expect that that should see him competitive here. Andrew Adkins originally hailed from the Mid North Coast of NSW and has ridden successfully over the Grafton Carnival in previous years – but this race has eluded him – it would be a wonderful story to see him win this race after fighting back from injury in recent months.

Peter & Paul Snowden have Hightail (5) and Signore Fox (6) to face the starter in this feature race.

Hightail (5) raced last start in the Group 1 Stradbroke and drops back in class here. He does not handle the 1400 metres at all, so rule a line through the effort in the Stradbroke and he resented the Eagle Fam circuit. He has shown a distinct liking for the 1200 metres and will be competitive here. Glen Boss has been booked to ride.

I would go on Hightails win in the Gold Coast Guineas over 1200 metres where he settled well and then was put into the race late and he swamped them. By the time this race comes I expect them to be coming wide and late so this should suit him.

Snitz (2), from the Dunn Racing yards at Murwillumbah, has been racing well since resuming from a spell. He has won two in a row over 1200 metres prior to dropping back to 1100m metres last start where he flashed home late. He was scratched from the John Carlton on Day 1 of the Carnival due to a wide barrier.

Then you have another fun fact. Snitz won the Takeover Target (used to be called the Pacesetter) race two starts ago. This race has been a tremendous form line for this race. There is one striking runner that went on to represent Australia internationally who had the same pathway from the old Pacesetter into winning this race in striking fashion – Takeover Target trained by Joe Janiak and who was ridden by Jay Ford in 2004. in fact, in 32 years of coming here, I still say it was the best win I have ever seen.

Here lies another great story – the jockey booked to ride Snitz is Matthew McGuren – and despite all his success on the Mid North Coast, both feature major races have eluded him!

Southern Lad has been racing on wet tracks. He will probably race more genuinely on a firmer surface which he will get here on Wednesday. Rachel King has been booked to ride by John O’Shea. I am just not too sure what to do with this runner and how to assess his recent efforts. He was heavily supported last start and had every chance.

Intuition (9) is a Kurt Goldman runner recently acquired from Godolphin. He has had one start for the new stable at Flemington. He has a solid second up record, goes well at 1200 metres but has drawn awkwardly in barrier 14. Despite being $41 in the markets, if he takes his place in the field, I give him a genuine chance.

Exclusive (16) won the John Carlton Cup on Day 1 as the lead up to this race. He gets in well at the weights and the race could be run to suit him with some speed on meaning Kirk Matheson might be able to get in and let him settle before riding him for luck in the straight.

If there is any pattern for leaders late in the program – do not underestimate Boomtown Lass (12). Despite the wide draw she could cause an upset here after coming off some solid efforts since resuming from a spell for Brisbane based trainer Chris Anderson..

Selections:

5 – Hightail
4 – Haunted
2 – Snitz
8 – Southern Lad
Rough chances: (9) Intuition (11) Mr Bellagio (12) Boomtown Lass (16) Exclusive

Race 8

The Class 6 Rural Plate finishes off a strong day of racing.

This race is always tough to find the winner as the form comes from all over the place so I would hope we are in front by the time this race comes around.

There are a few runners entered into this race and the Grafton Cup – so who knows where they will line up!

Nemingah (9) won the Grafton Cup Prelude - he is one of those runners. I think they may head towards the Cup. However, if he runs in this race, he will be hard to hold out.

Snowden Racing have California Longbow (5) coming off an inconclusive effort at Randwick over 2000 metres last start. He was held up at a vital point in the race, then checked and only got clear in the final 50 metres. That result was worthy of forgiving. Andrew Adkins is taking the ride here and he could be a nice way to finish off the day.

Kris Lees has two runners engaged – Fuji Fury (7) and Chilli Cha Cha (11). They both have genuine chances.

Fuji Fury (7) comes off a solid effort at Gosford last start where he just battled on when he encountered a heavy track. He will be better on a firmer footing and since there is some genuine speed in the race he should trail nicely into the race when asked for an effort.

Chilli Cha Cha (11) is the stablemate to be ridden by Jason Collett. She comes off some heavy tracks as well. I think that she may improve here with the longer distance. She has been well supported in the markets since they have opened.

Polemic (4) is a Stephen Lee Racing runner who worked home nicely in the Grafton Cup prelude when beaten by Nemingah (9). He protested against the winner – but it was unsuccessful. With an uninterrupted run here he could finally break-through for a win. Grant Buckley to ride.

Selections:

5 – California Longbow
11 – Chilli Cha Cha
7 – Fuji Fury
4 – Polemic
Rough chance: (9) Nemingah
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Jockey’s Challenge

Matthew McGuren looks to have a strong book of rides today – should be able to accumulate enough points to win. Jason Collett could be a danger at nice odds.

Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4 NSW only)

1,2,3 / 5,7,9 / 2,4,6 /2,7,8,9 - cost is $108 to $1

Value Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4 NSW only)

1,3 / 7,9 / 2,4 / 7,8,9 - cost is $24 to $1

Quaddie (races 5 to 8)

1,3,5,8 / 2,3,6,7 / 2,4,5,8,9 / 4,5,7,11 - cost is $320 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 5 to 8)

3,5,8 / 2,3,7 / 2,4,5 / 5,7,11 - cost is $81 to $1

Treble (races 6 to 8)

2,3,6,7 / 2,4,5,8,9 / 4,5,7,11 - cost is $80 to $1

BIG 6 (NSW only races 3 to 8)

2,4,6 / 7,8,9 / 3,5 / 2,3,7 / 2,4,5 / 5,11 - cost is $324 to $1

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