WINNO'S WINNERS: THE GRAFTON CARNIVAL - DAY 4

By Darren Winningham | Wednesday, July 8, 2020

GRAFTON CUP DAY – THURSDAY 9 JULY 2020

Day 4 of the GRAFTON CARNIVAL 2020 – and it is GRAFTON CUP day! The track has been posted as a SOFT for the meeting and the rail is in the true position for the entire course.

Signore Fox trained by Snowden Racing stables won the Ramornie on Day 3. The more favoured stable companion Hightail had no luck in running.

Take nothing away from the winner who sat of the speed and let down late under the urgings of jockey Jeff Penza for the jockey to win his maiden Ramornie.
Peter Snowden – with four winners - has now equalled the record for trainers winning the Ramornie. His winners have been Pinwheel (2010), Jerezana (2011) and Calanda in (2017).

There are eight races to be decided on Cup Day – it is time to hook into the form!

NB: As these selections were made prior to race-day please check for any changes to track conditions and for any scratchings on the day
____________________________________________________________________

Race 1

A sprint race to start off the day – only a small field to face the starter over 1000 metres.

Upper East Side (3), from the Kristen Buchanan stables, won last start at Scone when racing close to the lead. Jeff Penza (Ramornie winning jockey 2020) rode him on that occasion and has followed him north to ride him at the Carnival. Kristen has had a solid Carnival so far and could start Cup day with another winner. I think with the speed in the race the stable will elect to take a sit and come home late.

Kiss My Swiss (1) is trained by Joe Cleary in Canberra and will be ridden by Northern Rivers apprentice Emily Atkinson. Her claim of 2 kilograms will offset the massive 63.5 kilograms allocated to this runner. This runner loves to lead and is quite speedy. If she is left alone in front and Emily can get some cheap sectionals she may prove hard to run down here.

In A Step (7) is a Brett Dodson runner who led last start at Taree and kicked on strongly and held off the opposition. Last year this runner won here over the Carnival when she was ridden in front and gave nothing else a look in. Jon Grisedale gets back aboard her here and has ridden her to 2 career victories.

The locally trained runner from Sharon Pepper’s stables Laoban Tai Tao (10) is another solid chance if the speed is on. She always finishes strong late and has a sustained final sprint.

Selections:

3 – Upper East Side
1 – Kiss My Swiss
7 – In A Step
4 – Aceplay
Rough chance: (10) Laoban Tai Tai

Race 2

Class 1 – a 1400 metres race – tough field this one!

Sharon Pepper trains Electric Miss (10) who ran a solid race in the Grafton Guineas Prelude last week. I thought the run was good enough to trouble this lot at a reasonable price of around $10. Kirk Matheson is in the saddle again and I just think with the speed on it will assist her in getting a nice trail into the race.

Stonecold Flex (2) is trained by Tas Morton and will be ridden by Glen Boss. Last start he led at Rosehill in a TAB Highway on a heavy track over 1400 metres but he seemed to peak on his run late and was swamped. Just not too sure about this runner seeing out a genuine 1400 metres.

Enterprise Keren (3) posted a maiden win last start at Ballina over 1250 metres. He surged away to win by over five lengths and looked like the extra distance here will not bother him. He is trained on the track by John Shelton and Ben Looker, who rode him to victory at Ballina, stays aboard.

Auntie Monnie (4) is trained by Justin Blanch and Andrew Adkins takes the ride. She raced well on debut and won over 1000 metres. She then went around in a Class 2 race over 1000 metres on a heavy track at Tamworth. I have looked at the video of that run – the track did not suit her plus I think the way she raced she is looking for further.

Selections:

10 – Electric Miss
3 – Enterprise Keren
4 – Auntie Monnie
2 – Stonecold Flex
Rough chance: (7) Men In Tights

Race 3

The Mother’s Gift is a race named after a wonderful horse trained locally by John Shelton who was etched into history when she won the 2000 Ramornie! She won in sensational fashion and was a despised outsider in the race at $33. I remember the race well as I had something on her!

This is always a race that is targeted by trainers over the Carnival.

Edward O’Rourke trained Simply Sacred (6) to a win here on 11 June – but the rider weighed in light and the mare was subsequently disqualified. Since then, she trialled well last Thursday and looks like she is ready to shine in this race.

Axella (2), trained by Matthew Dunn Racing, is the danger in my opinion. She won last start at her home track at Murwillumbah over 1550 metres. She made a sustained run, went to the lead and held off the opposition.

Selections:

6 – Simply Sacred
2 – Axella
5 – Ivys Dream
4 – But I Know

Race 4

This is the traditional two-year-old race of the Carnival – the NBN Springboard to Fame.

I am going back to Day 1 of the Carnival where I watched Murungal (5) who made his debut at the track in emphatic fashion, winning over 1015 metres. He is trained by Con Karakatsanis and will be partnered again by Koby Jennings. If he produces an effort like he did in that run he will be difficult to beat here.

Mark Newnham brings Ashra Jahre (8) who resumed at Nowra and chased hard in the straight to run down the leaders. She will strip fitter for that run and the real question is the same for most of these runners – can or will she run out a solid 1200 metres?

Freyas Cloak (10) from the Stephen Lee stables is one that will certainly run out 1200 metres as she won over the distance last start – that was at Casino and it was her second consecutive win since resuming. She is seriously over the odds at $12 in some markets.

No Laughing Matter (13) could see Kris Lees and Andrew Gibbons laughing after the race if she can win again after breaking her maiden status at Port Macquarie last start over 1206 metres. She led all the way on a day - where the track was heavy and had a bias. Just how that will translate here I am not too sure!

Selections:

5 – Murungal
8 – Ashra Jahre
10 – Freyas Cloak
13 – No Laughing Matter
Rough chance: (7) Zaru

Race 5

This is the BIG MAIDEN that is on the program each year with a prize pool of $44,100 over 1200 metres. These races are always keenly contested, and often many runners backed as owners feel that their horse can win!

The local runner Great Marlow (6) has been smashed since the early markets opened at $21. He is now $10. Somebody must have a solid opinion of this John Shelton trained runner. Last start he resumed at Casino over 1000 metres and was held up on the turn before getting a run and finishing a gallant second. That run tops him off nicely for this assignment. Ben Looker retains the ride.

Yulong Base (1) is trained by Cody Morgan and Andrew Gibbons will be aboard. He resumed at Scone over 1100 metres and was coming nicely into the race but the leader was too strong and kicked late, meaning that he could not reel him in over the final stages. I think, based on that run, he will have derived some benefit and will strip fitter. He has raced previously over this distance successfully. I think despite the weight he will be right in this race.

Queens Do Dream (15) is an emergency and if she gets a run could cause a major upset here. She was second up last start at Casino and raced flat. I am overlooking that run and looking at the first up effort here over 1115 metres. I think the filly was a victim of the second up syndrome.

Scatman (7), trained by Brett Cavanough, resumed last start at Scone and was caught four wide and just had to run out of steam late – and that is what happened. Jason Collett will ensure that he is not caught wide this start from barrier 2. He has shown in his previous starts that he has some talent and will be up to this class.

There are a couple of roughies here that could show up – Another Arli (5) and Queens Do Dream (15).

Selections:

1 – Yulong Base
6 – Great Marlow
7 – Scatman
15 – Queens Do Dream
Rough chances: (5) Another Arli (11) Pure Rubick (18) Northern Star

Race 6

An open race for the Class 6 contenders – at 1200 metres.

Two Big Fari (2) come through the country championships series in March and April and then went to Randwick for the final and was brought undone by a heavy surface. This race has been won by some good types over the years and weight does not seem to stop them.

This runner has a WOW factor and I can see him winning this race for trainer Todd Howlett. Grant Buckley has been reunited with the gelding again – he has three rides on him for two wins and a second. He also rode him in a solid trial at Newcastle a month ago. He is ready to go – get on for mine!

Snow Valley (14) has been racing consistently without winning. She gets a firmer surface here and if she is going to trouble the judge this preparation it could be this race. She is not a fan of wet tracks, however, in her past three starts since resuming, she has gone around and put in a solid effort each time. Glen Boss has been tasked with changing her fortunes on Cup day.

Heavens High (9) resumes here from a spell for trainer Stirling Osland. Ben Looker is aboard, and this runner always puts in a bold effort first up. A recent trial under his belt as well at Tamworth keeps him in focus.

Up Trumpz (3) has drawn barrier 17 and will need some luck from out there but could show up.

There are some roughies in the race that I have highlighted below – but I think it is between my top two selections.

Selections:

2 – Two Big Fari
14 – Snow Valley
3 – Up Trumpz
9 – Heavens High
Rough chance: (8) See It Thru (15) Lose The Ship

Race 7 2020 IRON JACK GRAFTON CUP

When Ben Looker won this race last year aboard the Tony Pike trained Sacred Day to grab his first Grafton Cup win, what followed in the bird cage was some wonderful emotional scenes with his family and friends.

Can he achieve what only four other jockeys have done since the race commenced in 1910 and win consecutive Grafton Cups? The last jockey to succeed in doing this was Shane Scriven in 1994 and 1995 when he rode Oppressor trained by Greg Mance to victory.

So, let us preview the race for 2020.

There is a numbers war on in the 2020 Grafton Cup – Kris Lees Racing versus Chris Waller Racing. They dominate the field with three runners each, but can they take home the Iron Jack Grafton Cup? I THINK NOT!

I am tipping the Michael Costa runner La Pulga (6). I am just hoping despite the cold weather and early morning frosts that the track continues to improve, and we race closer to a GOOD surface come Thursday. He raced in the Group 3 Premiers Cup at Doomben last start and fought on late just to miss out on the line late when beaten by Another Dollar.

I think that the longer distance suits him. He is a four-year-old and has been racing on firm ground and not slow and heavy tracks like most of his opposition have been in recent weeks. Let’s hope there is some freshness in his legs and he can outstay them late.

The Lord Mayor (5) fought on well and sprinted the fastest over the final 400 and 800 in the Listed McKell Cup last start at Rosehill on a soft track. He does like wet tracks, but I think that he gets a race here where he can sit four pairs back and be able to sprint solidly late. Lee Magorrian seeks his first Grafton Cup winner – a good story!

The stablemate (Waller racing) is Carzoff (2) who raced in the same race. He hit the front and was run down late eventually finishing a gallant third. Again, the extra distance and the drier surface should assist this runner. Glen Boss has another live chance in the feature races at Grafton.

Kris Lees has Sixties Groove (1) coming off a close second at Rosehill last start in the listed McKell Cup to his stable mate Frankely Awesome (who has been scratched from the Cup). He was dour working his way home well. Jason Collett rides him here.

Do not leave out the Grafton Cup Prelude winner – Nemingah (10) who will be ridden by Rachel King – he could pop up at some long odds.

Selections:

6 – La Pulga
5 – The Lord Mayor
1 – Sixties Groove
2 – Carzoff
Rough chance: (10) Nemingah

Race 8 – 2020 THE KIRBY

The last race of the two successive feature race days of the Carnival is always the KIRBY sprint.

The race is dominated by the two horses in the market – Plague Stone (1) from Godolphin Racing and All Cylinders (4) from Peter Robl’s stables.

Plague Stone (1) is resuming and has scored a massive weight, however, is a class runner and has trialled well at Hawkesbury three weeks ago. That is after a 35-week spell. His first up form is sensational with 5 starts – 2 wins and 2 seconds. He likes to race midfield before storming home. This race is loaded with speed so it will be no place for the faint-hearted up at the front here. This gives this runner every chance to settle, find his feet and flash home late with Jason Collett aboard.

All Cylinders (4) is resuming from a 23-week spell and has three solid trials to get him ready for the race. Peter Robl is an astute trainer who clearly has targeted this race for this lightly raced Testa Rossa three-year-old. Glen Boss is riding this runner. Barrier 2 is ideal as well, so he should fly the gates and get into a position to give them something to catch late. There are some other speedsters drawn outside of him that I expect to take up the running but, if he can settle in behind them and then fires on “all cylinders” he could claim this time-honoured race.

Jules Spirit (10) is a local chance trained on the track by John Shelton. He loves to land an upset over the Carnival, and this could be the runner who claims it for him at around $34. Luke Rolls takes the ride and he had all five career wins over this distance. On his home track, down in the weights and likely to race midfield before racing home late he does tick a few boxes.

Normally, I never get to acknowledge pressure – but I did run into my long-term friend Tamworth trainer Sue Grills at the Calcutta on Tuesday night and she said, “you have better tip my horse in the last” … to which I replied, “I have more chance of winning POWERBALL than you win the Kirby with it.” But, you see, as the horses’ name suggests – I am Under The Thumb (7) – so I will give it a rough chance with Andrew Adkins aboard!

Let us hope for a good result for punters in the final race!

Selections:

4 – All Cylinders
1 – Plague Stone
10 – Jules Spirit
5 – Lucy Rose
Rough chance: (7) Under The Thumb
_____________________________________________________________________

Jockey’s Challenge

Ben Looker and Jason Collett have some nice rides. A slight leaning to Ben Looker – could be a great Carnival for him!

Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4 NSW only)

1,3,7 / 2,3,4,10 / 2,5,6 / 5,8,10 - cost is $108 to $1

Value Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4 NSW only)

1,3 / 3,4,10 / 2,6 / 5,8 - cost is $24 to $1

Quaddie (races 5 to 8)

1,6,11 / 2,3,9,14 / 1,2,5,6 / 1,4,10 - cost is $144 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 5 to 8)

1,6 / 2,14 / 2,5,6 / 1,4 - cost is $24 to $1

Treble (races 6 to 8)

2,3,9,14 / 2,4,5,6 / 1,4,10 - cost is $48 to $1

BIG 6 (NSW only races 3 to 8)

2,6 / 5,8,10 / 1,6 / 2,14 / 2,5,6 /1,4 - cost is $144 to $1
____________________________________________________________________

*And one last thing. If it wasn’t for COVID-19 stuffing up the State of Origin schedule we would have been celebrating a NSW win – alas we have to now wait until November!
_____________________________________________________________________

More articles