THE PETLEY REPORT: RUSSIAN CAMELOT, PROBABEEL, SIR DRAGONET - MY TOP THREE PICKS FOR THE COX PLATE

By Jack Petley | Saturday, October 24, 2020

There certainly is a strong European group heading to the WS Cox Plate today but for my money the major stake will stay Down Under.

Aidan O'Brien has already won a Cox Plate and he now has only one runner, Armory, with Magic Wands ruled out because of that hoof problem

The son of Galileo was expected to show top two-year-old form, but overall was disappointing. Has better form this season with that last start 3rd behind Magical and Ghaiyyath in the Irish Champion. Said O'Brien in the media this week:" Everything has gone well for him. He will race well."

With Magic Mand ruled out, Buckhurst enters the field for Joseph O'Brien and Team Williams.

Another raider is Aspetar, for Roger Charlton., He has had just two runs this campaign but his trainer says he is ready for a big turn. "Stall three gives him a great chance," said Charlton.

But for all that form of the pair the European gallopers, I feel the danger to the locals will be Sir Dragonet, a former O'Brien stayer now with the powerful yard of Maher-Eustace, who has a placing behind Magical in the Tatts Cup last time out and a slashing run behind Anthony Van Dyke in the Derby to highlight his credentials … and he doesn't mind a rain affected track. He is in my top three.

My top two ... Russian Camelot, Probabeel.

Russian Camelot has always looked above average. His win in the Underwood was so, so impressive, Arcadia Queen may have beaten him last time but I feel today he will be well and truly tightened up by Danny O'Brien who already has a Cox to his credit. Russian Camelot has drawn wide which may not be such a worry if the track worsens and he has the brilliant Damian Oliver up. He rides the Valley better than most.

Probabeel looked very good at three and she has matured into a top racehorse at four for Jamie Richards. Her sire Savabeel won a Cox and she is well placed to do just that with a big win in the Epsom and a dashing win in the Bill Ritchie beforehand. Only worry … has better form on top of the ground than soft form, but feel she will handle the Valley.

A win for Kerrin McEvoy on Probabeel today would add that to his majors , the Melbourne Cup, Caulfield Cup and Golden Slipper. Only seven jockeys have won them all and Damien Oliver is the only one still riding. "For me it is the last grand slam for me to tick off," said the highly successful jockey. "It would be a real treat."

So, they are my two top tips along with the Maher-Eustace Sir Dragonet. And one for longer odds … Kolding, the son of Ocean Park, also a Cox Plate winner. One always has to regard Waller trained gallopers in majors. The man is brilliant at placing his horses in big-time races. Kolding’s last two wins have been excellent and won at weight for age two back.

And while on Chris Waller, he was awarded two awards at the NSW Racehorse Owners Awards night, the Bart Cummings for the 10th time, for best performance in Sydney, and the TJ Smith, for the 10th time for leading trainer with 135 1/2 winners.

Looking at some of the other races at the Valley today … Kings Will Dream is my top pick for the Crystal Mile but do not leave the other Waller runner out, the French bred Olmedo. During the week Waller gave a glowing report on the European bred.

Danny O'Brien produces the NZ bred three-year-old Young Werther in the Drummond Golf Vase. The son of Tavistpock is the favourite for the Derby. Said O'Brien of the young stayer during the week: "He is a really talented horse," said O'Brien, who will have side winkers on the young stayer today. "It might allow him to focus a little bit and travel a bit kinder for Damien (Oliver) in the run." Main danger, Cherry Tortoni and Khoekhoe (who beat Young Werther last time).

O'Brien could have a great day and he looks well placed to take the Solutions Stakes with Sovereign Award.
Mike Moroney could gain the money with Sound in the Valley Gold Cup but Miami Bound could be an upset chance if the track is soaked earlier in the day.

Tough galloper Hey Doc took out the Manikato last night holding out the Godolphin runner, Trekking, and Dirty Work in a hard battle to the line. That gave him his second win in the big sprint having been successful in 2017.

In Sydney, some good fields and Peltzer looks the one to beat in the Bondo Stakes with John Sargent's Elizabeel right in the market and a big danger. Hilo looks a good chance in Race 8 for Rachael King and James Cummings and The Bopper looks hard to beat for Kris Lees and Josh Parr in the Crowley.

Good news out of NZ, the NZ Racing Desk reports that jockey Rosie Myers has shown significant improvement with husband William Fell reporting that she was talking to family and understanding what is happening around her. Myers was injured a bad fall at the Foxton trials on October 6 and was placed into an induced coma. She was moved out of ICU last weekend and on to Lower Hutt Hospital where she received facial surgery. "It is good to know she is heading in the right firection," said Fell.

And a small snippet of news out of the UK, former champion jockey Johnny Murtagh has been added to the trainers' roster for the Aga Khan. Murtagh rode successfully for the Aga Khan with big wins especially on Sindar in the Epsom Derby and the Arc. Murtagh is the third Irish trainer to gain horses for the Aga Khan, the others being Dermot Weld and Mick Halford.

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