WINNO'S WINNERS - FLEMINGTON, NOVEMBER 3, 2020

By Darren Winningham | Monday, November 2, 2020

FLEMINGTON - MELBOURNE CUP DAY RACES – TUESDAY 3 NOVEMBER 2020

Melbourne Cup Day 2020 – a day where upsets normally occur – play wide and GOOD LUCK!

The track is rated “GOOD”. The rail is out 2 metres for the entire circuit.

Will keep it brief and focus on the big race – Race 7 the 2020 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP!

Race 1

The two-year-old runners start off the day. Watch for any market movers.

Selections:

8 – Own The Night
7 – Marine One
1 – Ingratiating
6 – Guld of Suez

Race 2

An open race over 1400 metres.

Selections:

5 – Violinist
3 – Twain’s Express
2 – Joviality
9 – Vacinity Gem
Rough chance – (4) Sweet Reply

Race 3

Small field up the straight – 1000 metres.

Look for them to come down the centre of the track.

Selections:

9 – Echoes in Eternity
3 – Alleboom
1 – Hard Landing
8 – Longduan

Race 4

A looooong race over 2800 metres.

Some of these missed out on a run in the Cup.

Selections:

8 – Yonkers
7 – Sin to Win
1 – Djukon
2 – Knights Order

Race 5

A distance race – 1800 metres.

Selections:

2 – Ain’tnodeeldun
5 – Ultimate Edition
3 – Acrophobic
8 – Grinzinger Lord

Race 6

An open race – so many runners – too tough for me!

Selections:

2 – Groundswell
10 – Pinyin
11 – Tavidance
16 – Ocular
Rough chance – (12) Viral

Race 7 - 2020 LEXUS MELBOURNE CUP

The race is open this year with $8 the field.

Then punters have the bonus of an all Australian jockey field to ride the 24 runners.

I like the chances of a couple down the bottom of the weights here.

An overseas raider not seen on Australian soil yet holds the key to the race – Tiger Moth (21). Will there be a roar and sting in his final 200 metres when he gets to the clock tower and gets home? He is trained by Aiden O’Brien and has Kerrin McEvoy aboard. McEvoy seems to ride a winner each couple of years that correspond to an even number (2000, 2016 & 2018) – can he get another in 2020. Tiger Moth (21) has been very impressive in his past two starts and the word is he has acclimatised well since arriving in Australia.

The stable mate is Anthony Van Dyck (1) – you could not have missed his sensational effort in the Caulfield Cup when he just ran out of turf to run down the eventual winner Verry Elleegant (7). Hugh Bowman probably deserves redemption after he was booked to ride Sir Dragonet (5) in the W.S. Cox Plate and missed the ride due to suspension. Maybe the turn of events will work out in his favour. The runner will run the distance out solidly and is a proven Group 1 winner.

Verry Elegeegant (7) has suffered at the handicapper’s hands being weighted up to the best any mare has gone around in the Melbourne Cup. Take 2 kilograms off her and I think she would nearly be a special. Mark Zahra has ridden her to perfection in her two runs in Melbourne and he is looking for his first Melbourne Cup winner – again this mare is tough and a proven Group 1 winner. There is nothing to knock here other than the weight.

Persan (24) and Sir Dragonet (5) are trained by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace. I like the preparation for Persan (24) who sneaks into the field with a postage stamp on his back – Michael Dee to ride. He has had a month between runs and if you go through his form when he has these types of breaks, he races like a new horse and puts in. On that note I just must put him in – maybe even to win the race at around $51. He could be the runner that sees Australian horses win back to back Melbourne Cups!

Now for Sir Dragonet (5) – I must confess he was my horse for the Melbourne Cup. I backed him early and I thought that the run at Moonee Valley would have topped him off nicely for this race. I was wrong! He came out and won the W.S. Cox Plate in emphatic fashion. Glen Boss is looking to rewrite the history books and be one of only two other jockeys to ride four Melbourne Cup winners. The previous jockeys are: Harry White (1974,75,78,79) and Bobby Lewis (1902,1915,1919, 1927). In saying that Kerrin McEvoy could also get into the history books as well as he has ridden three winners as well. The Cox Plate was Sir Dragonet’s first Group 1 victory – but the stable knew he would race well as he was smashed in the betting being backed from $14 into $7.50.

Ashrun (18) backs up from Saturday after winning with a massive 61 kilograms – I like him again in the race as he drops down to 53 kilograms.

Other rough chances are Surprise Baby (13) and Steel Prince (15)

Selections:

21 – Tiger Moth
24 – Persan
1 – Anthony Van Dyck
7 – Verry Elleegant
Rough chances – (5) Sir Dragonet, (13) Surprise Baby, (15) Steel Prince, (18) Ashrun

Race 8

A race over 1800 metres – not many people will back up after the Melbourne Cup.

Selections:

15 – Purple Sector
1 – Homesman
8 – Harbour Views
6 – Junipal
Rough chance – (7) Mr Satchmo

Race 9

The Hong Kong Jockey Club sponsored race over 1400 metres.

Selections:

3 – Lyre
4 – Fabric
2 – Wild Vixen
14 – Rich Hips
Rough chance – (13) The Closer

Race 10

The last race of the day – that is it until Thursday!

Selections:

17 – The Astrologist
10 – Chicago Cub
11 – Excess Funds
6 – Exhilarates
Rough chances – (4) Intuition, (15) Yao Dash

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Jockey’s Challenge

I think the result will be an open affair on this massive program. Craig Williams, Mark Zahra, Hugh Bowman and Kerrin McEvoy all have nice books of rides – maybe something on Kerrin to knock off Craig Williams

Early Quaddie (races 3 to 6)

1,3,9 / 1,7,8 / 2,3,5 / 2,10,11,16 - cost is $108 to $1

Value Early Quaddie (races 3 to 6)

3,9 / 8,7 / 2,3,5 / 2,10,11 - cost is $36 to $1

Quaddie (races 7 to 10)

1,5,7,18,21,24 / 1,6,8,15 / 2,3,4,14 / 6,10,11,17 - cost is $384 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 7 to 10)

1,7,21,24 / 1,15 / 2,3,4 / 10,11,17 - cost is $72 to $1

Treble (races 8 to 10)

1,6,8,15 / 2,3,4,14 / 6,10,11,17 - cost is $64 to $1

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