THE MELBOURNE CUP PREVIEW: PRINCE OF ARRAN WILL HAVE EVERY CHANCE TO MAKE IT THIRD TIME LUCKY

By David Fowler | Monday, November 2, 2020

I’ve decided to defer to the “good form, good barrier and good jockey” logic in selecting Prince Of Arran to win the 2020 Lexus Melbourne Cup.

We’ve often commented how the Melbourne Cup is such a puzzle with the presence of so many international horses and jockeys and precious little exposed local form.

This year’s “Covid Cup” presents a different scenario yet assessing the race is still super tough from a different viewpoint.

We know all the jockeys and only two of the 24 runners have not stepped out on Australian soil.

But it’s the powerful form lines that has gifted such immense depth to this year’s Cup. It truly is a stellar international event.

I’m certain there are a few better horses than Prince Of Arran but the case I prosecute is that he is a safe option from a top four finish viewpoint.

This is the eight-year-old’s third visit for a Cup and, yes, the fact he has had two previous attempts without winning is often marked in the negative column.

But even on this front, what you see is what you get. Third in 2018 and promoted to second last year were both on the back of solid lead-up form.

And in his third foray this year, Prince Of Arran has again delivered an excellent lead-up performance via a powerful Caulfield Cup fourth, delivering the best closing sectionals.

So, the case seems watertight that he is arriving at tomorrow’s Cup with the same dash in the legs of the past two years.
____________________________________________________________________

There are two other significant factors that are in Prince Of Arran’s armoury.

He will be ridden by Jamie Kah who partnered him in the Caulfield Cup. The same Jamie Kah whose confidence is sky high after a quartet of wins on Cox Plate day.

And Prince Of Arran has drawn barrier one, a huge plus in my opinion despite many arguing barriers are irrelevant in 3200m races.

I totally disagree and history shows in recent years the Cup has been run at an average or even pedestrian speed which doesn’t assist those coming from well back or wide on the track.

Kah can put Prince Of Arran to sleep in the first dozen and time her run, relying on no traffic issues in the straight.

He is currently $10 in the TAB fixed Cup market.

Other winning chances are Surprise Baby, Tiger Moth and Sir Dragonet.

Strong top four hopes include Anthony Van Dyck and Russian Camelot while Verry Elleegant, Finche and Ashrun are possible top four hopes.
___________________________________________________________________

I’ll be backing Prince Of Arran each-way and taking a trifecta and first four (shown below)

TRIFECTA:

5, 12, 13, 21 (1st) / 1, 5, 12, 13, 15, 21 (2nd) / 1, 5, 7, 11, 12, 13, 15, 18, 21 (3rd)

($140 for $1)

FIRST FOUR:

5, 12, 13, 21 (1st) / 1, 5, 12, 13, 15, 21 (2nd) / 1, 5, 7, 11, 12, 13, 15, 18, 21 (3rd) / 1, 5, 7 11, 12, 13, 15, 18, 21 (4th)

($840 for $1 but for $100 you will get 12% of the dividend)

David Fowler