THE PETLEY REPORT: A MELBOURNE CUP WITH MANY CHANCES. THIS IS GOING TO BE SOME RACE!

By Jack Petley | Tuesday, November 3, 2020

It's Melbourne Cup Day, and what a day!

No crowds at Flemington, but a super field for the big one and of course no interviews from so called celebs at the track, trying to tip a winner and not knowing a thing about the racehorse. Won't miss them one iota.

All along I have rated the NZ bred mare Verry Elleegant highly. But so too the Irish raider Anthony Van Dyke. To me there is little between them as shown in the Caulfield Cup … and I feel there will be little between them today.

My No. 1 choice -- Anthony Van Dyke. I think of the decision by Hugh Bowman earlier this season on heading to Melbourne early was the right one, turning his back on a ride in the $15 million The Everest to be there and to prepare for the Cup, Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup with his words ringing in my ears, "A Melbourne Cup win is the ultimate win in Australia."

But luck was not with him early. Suspended after the Caulfield Guineas, second in the Caulfield Cup and then having to watch as the mount he was due to ride, Sir Dragonet, won the Cox Plate in the hands of fellow Sydneysider Glen Boss.

I see that Hugh has been out to Werribee to ride Anthony Van Dyck in work and according to Aidan O'Brien in the UK pres he was "very happy indeed." And to assist the big son of Galileo, he has drawn an inside gate. That means Hugh won't have to cover ground on him like the Caulfield Cup.

That’s a big, big plus with 58.5kgs to lump around. He can just sit and wait and then unleash the topweight off the home bend. That's when the true stayer stands up.

No. 2 - Verry Elleegant. She has had as wonderful preparation which is typical of the way Chris Waller handles his horses going into majors. That was a slashing Caulfield Cup win and there is not a worry about her getting 3200 metres successfully. She has drawn a little wide but in a way that will suit her as when she gets bottled up in races she is inclined to fight for her head. She settled well for Mark Zahra in the Caulfield Cup and her work since has been first class. The last to win the Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double, NZ bred and owned Ethereal.

No 3 - Tiger Moth, by Galileo. Imagine years back having a horse line up in the Cup with only four career starts. Unheard of … the great Bart Cummings would say as he put stamina into the legs of his many Cup winners through lots of work and racing. Over the years Aidan O'Brien has sent tough stayers to tackle the Cup and the closest he has been is a second in Rekindling's Cup. This year he has sent two Classic horses, an Epsom Derby winner and an Irish Derby placegetter. And a good friend of mine in England sent me an e mail this morning, his words on Tiger Moth" if he had drawn in he would be a good thing with his weight. He is a real Classic horse." That wide draw is a worry but countered by the fact he has a mere 52.5kgs to carry.

No4 - Sir Dragonet. The Bossman climbed off Sir Dragonet after the son of Camelot had been successful in the WS Cox Plate and commented "He was just warming up at the end of the fine win,” said Boss who knows what it takes to win a Melbourne Cup or two. And he also remarked that by the time he had got the stayer to the birdcage Sir Dragonet, "would not blown a match out." And he has won at 2500 metres back in Europe.
Interesting my top four have super riders on board, Anthony Van Dyke, (Bowman), Verry Elleegant (Mark Zahra), Tiger Moth (Kerrin McEvoy) and of course Boss on Sir Dragonet.

Overall this is a very good Cup field. It includes stayers like Ashrun, a narrow but decisive winner at his last run and carrying the flag for Australian Bloodstock … the NZ bred mare Miami Bound, an Oaks winner and back in form in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup … Russian Camelot, looked the star earlier in the season that has dimmed a little but Danny O'Brien is confident of a big effort … lady rider Jamie Kah on the tough UK stayer with strong Cup form, Prince of Arran, starting from gate one, the gate that produced that win for Michelle Payne and Prince of Penzance … Finche, a Waller stayer that so has to be considered … and The Chosen One, fitter for that Caulfield Cup third and with co trainer Murray Baker a master at getting his runners at peak for majors (could be the upset horse for my money) … and then of course Avilius, a forgotten runner, trained by James Cummings, grandson of the great Bart and running in the blue jacket of Godolphin.

There are many chances, indeed, this is the Melbourne Cup, but I'm sticking with my top four.

It will be some race.

Best of luck all and good punting!

More articles