WINNO'S WINNERS: EAGLE FARM, 12 DECEMBER, 2020
By Darren Winningham | Friday, December 11, 2020
EAGLE FARM RACES – SATURDAY 12 DECEMBER 2020
This weekend we are back at Eagle Farm for the first time in months. The question is what will be the pattern of racing and where will the runners be winning? Maybe a stop and watch meeting – just to see what happens.
The track rated “SOFT”. The rail is out 4.0 metres for the entire circuit. I cannot see the track being this rating come race day – but that is just my humble opinion.
NB: As these selections were made prior to race-day please check for any changes to track conditions and for any scratchings on the day
Race 1
A nice race to start off the day.
Tony Gollan Racing looks like he has a nice one here to start off the day with Palladas (5) with Michael Rodd to ride. He was sent out favourite at the Sunshine Coast and was defeated by Dzsenifer (3). I am forgiving that effort and I think he will be better suited here at Eagle Farm.
Good Chat (2) is a David Vandyke runner who has won his past two starts. Go back to his run in September with an excellent run behind Safework, who performed superbly last weekend, and he gets his chance to break through for a Saturday win in this race.
Dusty Tycoon (1) is on the quick back up from a solid effort in the Mode Plate last weekend. Alex Patis takes the ride and claims three kilograms that gets this MiRunner into the race nicely. Leaders have sometimes dominated when we have returned to Eagle Farm in the past – maybe this will be the case here in this first race.
Selections:
5 – Palladas
2 – Good Chat
3 – Dzsenifer
1 – Dusty Tycoon
Rough chance – (11) Beltaria
Race 2
The first leg of the Early Quaddie is this race over 1830 metres.
I am talking through my pocket when I am backing up and tipping See Marie (2) from the Desleigh Forster stables again this weekend. Jim Byrne rode her to perfection last start at Doomben over 1630 metres. If she handles the track here, I can see here stalking the leaders and sprinting late. I just think this Sebring filly has some upside and as the distances get longer, she will be stronger.
The Ritz (4) is from the Michael Costa yards on the Gold Coast. Has had two career starts and has been very impressive in each of them winning them quite well. The stable does have a solid opinion of this gelding and he will be given every chance by Jimmy Orman to post a win.
Way Beyond (4) comes out of the race won by See Marie (2). I think that the step up in distance will assist this runner here. Michael Rodd takes the ride this weekend.
Two roughies that could show up are the Matt Kropp trained Aliraaj (6) who has been working through his grades nicely and won by 5 lengths at the Gold Coast last start over 1800 metres. Keep this runner safe this weekend.
Petunia (8) from Kelly Schweida Racing has been looking for this distance and may show up at odds.
Selections:
2 – See Marie
3 – The Ritz
4 – Way Beyond
6 – Aliraaj
Rough chance – (8) Petunia
Race 3
A small field over the 1200 metres here with a few early scratchings
Socialising (9) I thought performed well in a Listed race first up a fortnight ago. She has a solid second up record and has won here at this track and distance. Ben Thompson retains the ride here.
Malahide (8) is another Michael Costa runner who normally races well fresh. She has had two solid hit outs in barrier trials in preparation for this first up assignment. With three wins from five starts first up she certainly has the statistics in her corner to say that she could race well fresh. She also has raced well on this surface previously. Glen Boss takes the ride.
Elixir (2) was not suited by the tempo first up at the Gold Coast. Forgive that effort and I think with the genuine speed engaged here and the claim for apprentice Justin Huxtable this Les Kelly runner is nicely placed second up.
Selections:
9 – Socialising
8 – Malahide
2 – Elixir
5 – Potro Duro
Race 4 RACING QUEESLAND 2020 SUMMER SERIES FINAL
These races have been wonderful initiatives by all those involved.
This race is over 1300 metres.
I liked the win of the Matthew Dunn Racing trained Ashman (1) last start at the Gold Coast where he was strong through the line and put the opposition to the sword over 1200 metres. I do not think the extra 100 metres will worry him here and Stephanie Thornton is a great plus to his chances as she has had 4 rides on him for 2 wins and a placing.
Gee Tee Tee (10) got rolled last start at the Sunshine Coast as favourite. This runner drops from 59 kilograms to 54 kilograms this weekend. I think the weight relief, despite the rise in class, will see him very competitive here. Ben Thompson stays on top this weekend. Maybe you could forgive the last effort as he was second up and he will strip fitter for that run.
Buffy (2) comes down from Rockhampton and the Adrian Coome yards. He has posted three consecutive wins in good times as well. He could get out in front here and run them into the ground.
The unknown talent is Jetski who sailed into the Sears Racing stables and debuted with a solid win at the Sunshine Coast for the new stables. With some improvement still in this runner he could show up here.
Selections:
1 – Ashman
10 – Gee Tee Tee
2 – Buffy
7 – Jetski
Race 5 Phelan Ready Stakes
The feature two-year-old race for the colts and geldings. This sometimes is a nice lead up race to the Magic Millions in January.
There are many runners lining up here for their first starts and this makes it very difficult to assess the form here. Watch for any market moves in this race.
I think the key to the race is if the two emergencies get a start in the field.
Shooting For Gold (11) from the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace stables in Victoria – who have had tremendous successes this season with their youngsters and Cochrane (12) from Snowden Racing looks well placed if he makes the field.
These emergencies have Jim Byrne on them both – so maybe one of them may make the field.
I did like the first up effort of the Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young trained Rambeau (4) who was very strong on debut in the Magic Millions race at Ballarat where they run in the clockwise direction. I think he will have taken a large benefit from that outing and I expect he could race well with Glen Boss to ride.
Zarastro (10) is from the Chris Waller Racing machine at the Gold Coast with Luke Dittman to ride. This I Am Invincible colt won a trial at Randwick recently with James McDonald aboard. The trial was solid, the effort was good he looks a readymade racehorse. The stable must be happy as there has been some serious support with this runner being well backed from $4.50 into $3.80 since the markets have opened.
Selections:
4 – Rambeau
10 – Zarastro
11 – Acrobat
12 – Cochrane
Race 6 Calaway Gal Stakes
First leg of the Quaddie this weekend.
The feature two-year-old race for the fillies. The race is over 1000 metres.
Again, the emergencies are all in the mix if they get a run – all have been trialling well and all are from reputable stables.
I was taken by the debut run of the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace trained Fake Love (1) when she won on debut at Caulfield. She led, set up the race and was very strong to the line running a good time. She then seemed to get lost down the straight at Flemington in her second career start. Back onto a circle and coming around the bend I think that she may be too good for these. I did proclaim her to be a solid Magic Millions contender when she won back on debut in October – nothing has changed my mind. The addition of the blinkers and a solid trial recently at Rosehill when Glen Boss partnered her all show me that the stable thinks she is a serious filly for the 2021 Magic Millions. She has drawn badly in barrier 13 but with only 10 runners to take their place here I think that she will be too good for these.
Princess Bojack (3) from the Michael Nolan Racing team won on debut here at this track and distance in great time back in October. She had a barrier trial at Toowoomba recently where she wasn’t asked to do too much. She is the testing material for the interstate brigade here this weekend. Michael Cahill remains on this runner – he has wonderful hands and just knows how to get the best out of these youngsters.
Miss In Charge (9) is a Kris Lees Racing runner on debut from Newcastle. She will be partnered by Andrew Bullock who rode her in a trail that she won easily a week ago. My spies from the track say she has plenty of ability and potential – do not leave her out!
Selections:
1 – Fake Love
3 – Princess Bojack
9 – Miss In Charge
13 – Summerbeel
Rough chance – (12) Lolanka
Race 7 Bribie Handicap
The Bribie over 1000 metres.
Sugar Boom (7) is an exciting sprinter trained by Tony Gollan. She faces probably her acid test here in this Listed Race. If she comes through this, she is probably looking for a good few weeks at the races. Larry Cassidy has the ride.
I cannot believe the price of Plaque Stone (3). A change in trainers from James Cummings to David Pfeiffer’s yards. He resumed in the Kirby at Grafton with a ridiculous weight and was gallant in defeat there. He then went to Rosehill and ran an amazing race. He has had a stable change – a fair few gear changes too – but he has been trialling well for his new stable. If he shows 80% of his old form, he will be right in this race. Glen Boss has the ride.
I can hear the owners of Boomtown Lass (8) saying – “here we go WINNO is at it again” as I have tipped her third this weekend and not on top! I will shut you all up now … simple third up, not a good record and back to 1000 metres from 1200 – not sure if she can do it. On the other hand, if she wins the race, I am happy to have egg on my face and see you all after the race and apologise. Oh, and James – our standard $5 bet trifecta – the numbers this weekend are below!
Selections:
7 – Sugar Boom
3 – Plaque Stone
8 – Boomtown Lass
4 – Usmanov
Rough chance – (2) Spurcraft
Race 8
Only a small field here for this race at set weights.
Chris Anderson trains Profit (2) and Matthew McGillivray will ride him. His first up effort was striking and in this small field I can see him getting home late out wide and making a last-ditch effort to nail the leaders.
Frosty Rocks (3) has been sent north by the powerful Bjorn Baker stables. I wonder if the big fella will make an appearance at Eagle Farm this weekend – the borders are down mate! I am troubled by this runner. He has hoof filler this weekend. He has raced well on softer surfaces – I am just concerned that if the track is hard this weekend this runner may not like this hard Eagle Farm surface. Then again – if they are leading and winning, this runner will be out in front for a long way with Glen Boss aboard.
Last weekend we witnessed a wonderful effort from Paniagua (4) trained in North QLD by Alex Maliff – but there has been a trainer change with Glen Baker now taking over the training. He was ridden by Robert Thompson over a mile. He raced so well that he could run a bold race again this weekend. He was super last weekend and he appeared to have a lot up his sleeve. He goes up in class - dramatically - but I think he could cause an upset here.
Selections:
2 – Profit
3 – Frosty Rocks
4 – Paniagua
1 – Master Jamie
Race 9
The last race – will the rain that they have said will arrive this weekend stay away?
Tony Gollan Racing may hold the key to this final race with his runner Krone (4) who was disappointing 28 days ago when she resumed in the Listed Keith Noud. Since then, she has trialled sensationally and gets the services of Michael Rodd here. I just think she sits in behind the speed and comes late and could be too good for them this weekend. She has solid second up form as well.
Exhilarates (1) is the best runner in the race from James Cummings/Godolphin. Her grand final will be Magic Millions day so whatever she does here this weekend she will improve on. I expect her still to run a bold race despite the weight.
Chris Anderson Racing has Epic Girl (6) racing second up this weekend. She races well on this surface and has tremendous second up form – massive price as well on offer at $26. Tegan Harrison seems to get the best out of this mare – look for an upset here.
Toby & Trent Edmonds train Maozi (13). She resumed with a solid win. Last start just never seemed to fire when beaten by Niedorp. She does have reasonable third up form – Robbie Fradd rides.
Skate to Paris (3) just loves this track. Trained by Chris Munce, she could win this without surprising at a huge price and send the punters home crying!
Selections:
4 – Krone
1 – Exhilarates
6 – Epic Girl
13 – Maozi
Rough chance – (3) Skate To Paris & (12) Veranes
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Jockey’s Challenge
Glen Boss has been snapped up by the trainers as he is in QLD. He has a solid book of rides and looks like the logical winner this weekend.
Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)
2,3,4,6 / 2,8,9 / 1,2,10 / 9,10,11,12 - cost is $144 to $1
Value Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)
2,3 / 3,9 / 1,10 / 4,10 - cost is $16 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,3,9 / 4,5,7 / 2,3,4 /1,3,4,6,13 - cost is $135 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,3,9 / 3,7 / 2,3 / 1,4,6 - cost is $36 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
4,5,7 / 2,3,4 / 1,3,4,6,13 - cost is $45 to $1
Value treble (races 7 to 9)
3,7 / 2,3 / 1,4,6 - cost is $12 to $1
WINNO V FLEMO
Be sure to check the up to date and amended tips each Saturday morning on Facebook after any track changes and scratchings where I will post our selections and any late mail!
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