WINNO'S WINNERS: GOLD COAST, 16 JANUARY, 2021

By Darren Winningham | Thursday, January 14, 2021

GOLD COAST RACES – MAGIC MILLIONS 2021

SATURDAY 16 JANUARY

This weekend we are at the GOLD COAST at the AQUIS track at Bundall for MAGIC MILLIONS 2021 - one of the greatest events on the turf calendar in Australia.

All focus will be on this meeting this weekend where the track is rated “GOOD”. The rail is out 1 metre from the 1000 metres to the 400 metres and then true for the rest of the circuit.

There is forecast is for warm weather for the rest of the week.

The forecast for racing is HOT …. Damn HOT racing too!

The track had a leader bias last weekend – if that continues here you will need to be in the leading brigade as they come around the turn. I would suggest that you take a good look at the first few races this weekend to see if things change.

Now let us get straight into the preview.

NB: As these selections were made prior to race-day please check for any changes to track conditions and for any scratchings on the day.
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Race 1

The rich Magic Millions Maiden starts off the day - $145,000 for first place!

Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott trained a winning double here last weekend. Nash Rawiller also rode a double and this formidable in form team combine here in the first with For Valour (8) who is drawn well and who resumed over 1250 metres on a soft track at Canterbury last time and ran well. Looks ideally placed here and should be hard to beat in the first – maybe punters can get off to a winning start on a massive day.

Doctor Jack (7) is trained on the track by Harold Norman and will be ridden by Rikki Palmer. Two recent solid trials and the fact that he will race handy probably suggests that he is forward enough to go well here.

Defiant Diva (14) is trained by Leon & Troy Corstens with Craig Williams to ride. Has drawn terrible in barrier 17 – but I tell you what if she can handle the Gold Coast track and she can get in and not be caught three wide, she will give this race a huge shake. The run first up at Yarra Valley over 1000 metres was great. She suffered interference and was held up from the 500 metres to the 200 metres and could not get a crack at them. When she got out she flew home. I think, stepping up to 1200 metres, she could cause a major upset here at $31.

Healey Racing has Dominarcher (2) resuming here. This runner has some solid form behind Shooting For Gold and trainer Billy Healey brought him to the Gold Coast last week to have a look at the track in a trial. He won the trial in good fashion with Glen Boss aboard – he stays on here this weekend. He has drawn ideally in barrier 2 and will probably lead the field or take the sit in behind the speed. I think he is an outstanding chance here I am just concerned that last 100 metres may test him. Regardless of the result this runner is a quality gelding that you can follow with some confidence.

Vaporizing (4) is a Gollan Racing runner. A nice trial in December after being transferred to the new stable would suggest that he is going well. He will be partnered by Ryan Maloney and I would expect him to go well – barrier 16 and blinkers going on.

Newsreader (16) is a John O’Shea runner with Brenton Avdulla to ride. Drawn well, he will be racing midfield and is not without a chance. A solid recent trial would suggest that he is ready to strike here first up.

The runner that I would have winning the race is the Rob Heathcote trained Boom Ranga (21) but as fifth emergency it is highly likely he will not get a run here – look for him wherever he starts next.

Selections:

8 – For Valour
7 – Doctor Jack
14 – Defiant Diva
16 – Newsreader
Rough chance – (2) Dominarcher (4) Vaporizing (21) Boom Ranga

Race 2

An Open Handicap over 1800 metres.

Paradee (3) is the Victorian raider who has been racing at Group 2 and Listed levels in her past starts. She normally races a few pairs back, settles well and then makes her run when it counts. She came out here last weekend and slayed the field – goes up in weight but on that effort last weekend it is difficult to see her going down in this race. Craig Williams to ride for the Danny O’Brien stable again. Up in weights and drawn wide may test her this weekend.

Frosty Rocks (5) is a Bjorn Baker Racing runner who is extraordinarily strong in his races and loves to lead and set the pace and run his opponents into the ground. He should get an easy lead and jockey Nash Rawiller should be able to set the tempo of this race to suit him here with nothing else going forward in the race. If he gets away with some cheap sectionals, he may be difficult to run down in the straight. Last weekend Paradee (3) beat him here. This weekend he meets that winner 4 kilograms better for that defeat. I think that now he has seen this track - and his effort last weekend under the big weight - he could turn the tables on the pre-race favourite. Bjorn Baker normally does have a winner of two on Magic Millions day each year – this could be one!

Wapiti (11) comes out of the same race of Paradee (2) and Frost Rocks (5) last weekend. He has 54 kilograms this weekend meeting the other two runners very well at the weights. Robbie Fradd goes on board.

The local runner is the Michael Costa trained Willo Titto (10) who has a solid record on her home track and over this distance. First up she carried a massive 61 kilograms and drops to 54 kilograms in this race. Jag Guthmann-Chester gets a chance to ride a winner on Magic Millions day 2021 with this runner. She is $41 is some markets and I think is silly odds and may upset the more fancied runners. Her second up form is solid. To her detriment if the pattern of racing is on the speed she may struggle as she does normally get back and fly home.

Selections:

5 – Frosty Rocks
3 – Paradee
11 – Wapiti
10 – Willo Titto
Rough chance – (8) Itz Lily

Race 3 MAGIC MILLIONS TROPHY - $1 MILLION PRIZEMONEY

The distance race on the program. Only 12 runners to face the starter.

It is a tough race – not one that I will be betting on.

Turn back 12 months – Primitivo (3) beat Black On Gold (2) with Man To Match (4) running third.

I like Black On Gold (2) second up here this weekend with three weeks between runs for the Chris Waller Racing team. He comes out of the Group 3 Summer Cup where his sectionals were awesome when he settled back and flew home. I think this field gives him a chance to get home late out wide – just concerned that there is not much speed in this race.

Primitivo (3) is trained by John Thompson and Glen Boss to ride. They won this race last year. He has not won a race since! He raced in the Summer Cup as well and looked like he was working home well enough to suggest the extra distance will assist him in this race.

Skiddaw (6), for Danny O’Brien, will be looking for a race to race double for the stable if Paradee can win the previous race. This gelding has the blinkers coming off for this assignment. He has been racing over a mile or so in his recent starts carrying massive weights. I think down on the minimum, if he can get the distance, he is every hope in this race.

Chris Anderson has had an abbreviated preparation for Ballistic Boy (1) with Matthew McGillivray to ride. He won the Rough Habit Plate (Group 3) back in June last year. He will get the distance – just again concerned about the tempo of the race and where he will be when they turn into the straight. If he gets something to lead and put some genuine tempo into the race he could salute – but if leaders are winning you can rule a line through him.

A Man To Match (4) has the blinkers going on this weekend – maybe there will be a dramatic improvement in his performance on a track that he does like.

Selections:

2 – Black On Gold
3 – Primitivo
6 – Skiddaw
1 – Ballistic Voy
Rough chance – (4) Man To Watch

Race 4 MAGIC MILLIONS SNIPPETS SPRINT $1 MILLION PRIZEMONEY

A race over 1200 metres. A few early scratchings.

They will go hard and fast here – likely leader Jonker (7) drawn wide and straight to the rail for mine with Jim Byrne looking to set up the race. Then you have Usmanov (11) who has drawn barrier 3 that will not have to spend a penny to jump out and take up the running. There are other runners here as well that could press forward.

With all the speed on in the race I just think something sitting a few pairs back can storm home late.

With that in mind Hard Empire (2) from the Edmonds Racing stables, trained on the track, ticks a few boxes. He defeated Jonker (7) in the George Moore Stakes (Group 3) last start going to the line with plenty in reserve. Six weeks between runs is maybe a slight concern and barrier 13 may cause a few dramas for jockey Brad Stewart. In saying all of that he did win well last start and he does race well with his races well-spaced.

Everyone knows I am a BLUE – and well Godolphin colours just happen to be BLUE. Roheryn (3) will be ridden by another BLUE in Michael Rodd again this weekend. I think if you backed him first up in the Falvelon (Listed) at Doomben you had your heart in your mouth when he looked like he had peaked on his run and all of a sudden found a second, third and fourth gear and stormed home to win. His only drama is that he gets back in his races and if they are on pace winners, we may be in trouble backing him here this weekend.

The stable mate is Exhilarates (9) who was unlucky in the Just Now (Listed) a month ago at Eagle Farm. She has never been out of the money in four starts here at the Gold Coast and has James McDonald to ride, they are the positives – but she has drawn the beach in barrier 17 and will need some luck. She is a quality mare and did win the Magic Millions here in 2019. Must be respected.

The runner I like is the improved Les Ross Racing filly Mishani Miss (18) who has made the field now with the early scratchings. But she has also drawn wide in barrier 16. She has been racing in sensational form. Last weekend she was run down late by Boomnova in the final stride carrying 60 kilograms – down to 52 kilograms this weekend – she is a massive chance for mine at $31. Ben Thompson to ride her this weekend and I think she has the ability to sit off the speedsters and finish strong late with the light weight – is there an upset looming?

Sansom (5) comes from Victoria and is trained by Phillip Stokes with Nash Rawiller to ride. Carried a whopping 61.5 kilograms last start at Caulfield – probably may press forward here as well and cause some chaos in the leading bunch. Can he hold on late when they all come at him?

Selections:

3 – Roheryn
2 – Hard Empire
18 – Mishani Miss
9 - Exhilarates.
Rough chances – (5) Sansom (7) Jonker

Race 5 MAGIC MILLIONS FILLIES AND MARE – $1 MILLION PRIZEMONEY

This is the sprint for the girls over 1300 metres.

Gollan Racing is well represented with four runners in the race.

I think his best chance is Outback Barbie (3) who has finally drawn a barrier – the rails even! Michael Rodd to ride. The blinkers go on this weekend and the winkers come off. She has a good record at the track and maybe she can improve.

Snapdancer (9) has made a solid impression with two consecutive wins. Trained by Ciaron Maher & David Eustace she comes off a good win at Randwick a month ago when she was heavily supported in the betting and got the chocolates. Hugh Bowman retains the ride on the Gold Coast.

Stolen Jade (11) won here in arrogant fashion last weekend over the same distance carrying 59 kilograms. She has drawn well, and she gets similar conditions to last week where she was able to track the speed into the race and then storm home to bury the opposition. Brad Stewart remains in the saddle here and she could post her fifth consecutive win. She has just worked through her grades so well and looks a promising type.

Athiri (2) is a James Cummings / Godolphin runner who comes into the race well weighted under these conditions. She is looking for a hat trick of wins in this race with Nash Rawiller to ride her again. She did win the Nudgee (Listed) last start and she will be suited by the speed in the race. She is the pre race favourite and will be difficult to hold out when the judge calls a halt to the race.

Selections:

9 – Snapdancer
11 – Stolen Jade
2 – Athiri
3 – Outback Barbie
Rough chance – (1) Irithea

Race 6 2021 MAGIC MILLIONS CLASSIC - $2 MILLION PRIZEMONEY

First leg of the Quaddie this weekend – this could be a HUGE dividend so play wide!

The feature race of the program for the two-year old’s.

A lot has been said that you must race last weekend to win a Magic Millions – but do you really?

I like the Queensland form for this year’s race – so I am staying with the Toby & Trent Edmonds undefeated colt Alpine Edge (1). Each run he has improved, and I think that from barrier 9 he should be a few pairs back and have the finish to win the race. Robbie Fradd could win his first Magic Millions! I thought his latest win in the BJ McLachlan (Group 3) showed how good he was when he drew away from Baby Wong (6) to win.

Baby Wong (6) has the blinkers going on this weekend for the first time and they have put Nash Rawiller on to get home. He has taken improvement in each run. Blinkers going on and a decent barrier draw – barrier 6. He is still a maiden but what a way in would be to break your career duck!

Swift Witness (12) from the Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott stables came into calculations last weekend when she put the blinkers on and smashed the opposition in one of the most arrogant wins I have seen at the Gold Coast in a while. Brenton Avdulla goes on her this weekend with Glen Boss already committed to ride Fake Love (9). She has drawn well in barrier 11 and I cannot see why she cannot continue with that winning effort from last weekend.

Fake Love (9) trialled here last week in a solid hit out under the eye of Ciaron Maher and she won well. Barrier 20 this weekend is a huge hurdle, however, there has always been wraps on this filly – she may get in and finish off strong.

Finance Tycoon (2) got enough money in the bank last weekend for trainer Tom Dabernig & Ben Hayes when he was solid defeating Shaquero (4). He was only 80% fit last weekend and I think as the races get longer, we will see the best of him. However, this weekend with some speed in the race and despite barrier 21, I expect him to be in the top five when they cross the line.

She’s All Class (11) is the filly that has been the pre post favourite for months in the lead up into the race after her dynamic win in the Magic Millions at Wyong. She has drawn barrier 18, has James McDonald in the saddle and is trained by the all-conquering Chris Waller. I cannot see her running in the top three! (Here comes the egg throwers).

Look I have several reasons for saying that. I just do not think that form out of that race has been as good as the many pundits have said since the win – everyone jumped on the band wagon – not me! She was given an easy trial on 4 January at Rosehill and she was not really tested. Look you can trust Waller to have them peaking for this race and there will be belief in the win at Wyong – but I would have liked her to have a run in Queensland prior to this race.

If you want a newcomer to win as any old price, I think you cannot go past the GIRLS! I am talking about trainer Annabel Neasham and Stephanie Thornton who pair up with Queen OF Wizardry (15) who won on debut at Eagle Farm. She was held up, had to be steadied and then, despite the imposition still knuckled down late and won at her debut against some seasoned opposition. She has drawn barrier 15, but with an ounce in luck in running I think she is the one to cause a major upset this weekend.

So there you have it – scrambled eggs WINNO style – pick what you like and stay with your selection for mine!

Selections:

1 – Alpine Edge
12 – Swift Witness
6 – Baby Wong
15 – Queen Of Wizardry
Rough chance – (2) Finance Tycoon (4) Shaquero (11) She’s All Class

Race 7 MAGIC MILLIONS 3-YEAR-OLD GUINEAS - $2 MILLION PRIZEMONEY

This is the other big race – over 1400 metres.

The race has been billed as a fight between the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace trained Away Game (3) and the Tony Gollan trained Isotope (13).

Away Game (3) winner of the 2020 Magic Millions Two-Year-Old Classic – looked underdone at Doomben first up and was only defeated in the last stride by Isotope (13). I remember walking back to the media room I thought wow – what a clash we are in for next time they meet – I do not think Away Game (3) will be beaten like that next start. So, I am staying with Away Game and Glen Boss to reverse the result this weekend on the big dance floor of the Magic Millions Guineas. She has had a recent barrier trial as well – she was not extended, and she won well here on the track. It could be a big 60 minutes for Boss, Maher, and Eustace if they can win both feature races!

Then you have the local runner – Isotope (13) trained by Tony Gollan and to be ridden by Ryan Maloney. She has won both races in superb fashion since returning from a spell. She was sensational last start descending from the clouds out wide and running down Away Game (3) in the final bound. The only time she has been out of the money was over 1400 metres in the Group 1 JJ Atkins where, to be fair, she had no luck in the running.

The real issue here is can these two favoured runners run out a strong 1400 metres? Then you have an issue if there is any track bias with Away Game (3) likely to be on the speed and Isotope (5) coming from midfield.

Gotta Kiss (15) is trained by Steven O’Dea and Matthew Hoysted and will be ridden again by Stephanie Thornton. This filly has raced twice over 1400 metres – recently in the Vo Rogue (Group 3) and before that in the JJ Atkins (Group 1) and finished second both times after settling back in the field and then making a stirring run late. She is fourth up here this preparation and this is her grand final – she stays under notice.

Forbidden Love (13) is trained by Richard and Michael Freedman coming off a Gosford Guineas win on a heavy track. Jim Byrne has the ride. She has won over 1400 metres in the Reg Allen (Listed) at Randwick back in October last year. On that occasion she led the race and gave nothing else a chance. She is drawn barrier 4 and has the chance to go forward or just sit in behind the speed – one thing is for sure she will be in the first six runners throughout the race.

Apache Chase (1) won the Vo Rogue (Group 3) last start for Desleigh Forster and Taylor Marshall. That was his second win at 1400 metres so there is no drama with the distance. From barrier 1 he could push forward and lead and provide Away Game (3) the opportunity to trail him in the running and get a cosy buffer into the race come the final 150 metres.

Outside of these runners, horses like Redoute’s Image (17), Starosa (18) and Safework (9) could show up at any old price and spoil the part for these more favoured runners.

Selections:

3 – Away Game
5 – Isotope
13 – Forbidden Love
15 – Gotta Kiss
Rough chance – (1) Apache Chase

Race 8 MAGIC MILLIONS CUP - $1 MILLION PRIZEMONEY

Yao Dash (12) and Discharged (9) represent the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott yards in this race and they both have genuine chances. Last weekend Yao Dash (12) was dominant winning over 1300 metres and the way he surged to the line the extra 100 metres of this race will be no drama. He drops sharply in the weights and Brenton Avdulla picks up the ride this weekend for the stable.

Discharged (9) resumed last start at Canterbury, was heavily backed and was beaten narrowly be Eleven Eleven (3) who ultimately won the Magic Millions Guineas race last year for trainer Greg Hickman. Second up form is solid, has the services of Jim Byrne and represents good value.

What about Eleven Eleven (3) – two wins since a spell – better form this year going into the event than last year with two solid wins for Greg Hickman who would have this race in mind for a long while and he will be at his peak for this event. The inform Nash Rawiller is up to ride.

I just think that this race could show up a rough result for punters as Yao Dash (12) can mix his form – but when he is on, he will be hard to beat. So, looking for some value, the Hawkes team has Outrageous (4) in the race. He loves to race near the lead so he will be right in this for a long way. Hugh Bowman takes the ride. I think the mile was just a fraction too far last start in the Villiers (Group 2) and back to 1400 metres he will be strong to the line.

The other runner that I think always seems to bother the judge each year Magic Millions time is the Chris Waller Racing trained Sambro (8). Each year he comes here he just seems to thrive and run a great race. This year he comes into the race with some equivocal form and James McDonald to ride with a massive price of $51 in some markets. He is third up here at the Coast and his form third up is good – he could be one to upset the more favoured runners.

Then you have the Mark Currie trained Soxagon (1) who has done nothing wrong this preparation and has accepted each challenge that has been set of him by the trainer. Has won twice here at the Gold Coast – big weight to contend with – but will appreciate the speed in the race. Glen Boss will be looking to get another winner on this big day on this runner.

Selections:

12 – Yao Dash
8 – Sambro
3 – Eleven Eleven
1 – Soxagon
Rough chance – (9) Discharged

Race 9 MAGIC MILLIONS QTIS OPEN - $1 MILLION PRIZEMONEY

The final race of the day on what I would hope is a sensational day of racing.

The Odyssey (2) was scratched from an earlier race and saved for this race. The 1300 metres will test him for sure as, if the race were over 1200 metres, I would think he would be exceedingly difficult to run down and beat. Stephanie Thornton retains the ride. He will be in front for a long way – if leaders are winning, he must stay in calculations. He is weighted up to his best with the conditions of this race.

Yamazaki (10) from the David Pfieffer stables won last year here the week before Magic Millions and then turned in an admirable effort in a similar race the week after. She is second up and has been very well supported since the markets have opened – Glen Boss on again. Not sure if she is going as good as last year but she does have a strong finishing burst and if they go fast up front that will enhance her chances here.

I really think there may be an upset here in the last with Jami Lady (5) getting into this race nicely with Ben Thompson aboard for the dynamic duo of Steven O’Dea and Matthew Hoysted who train her. She was solid first up in the Nudgee (Listed) at Eagle Farm, she thrives at this distance and has won at Listed level during the 2020 Brisbane Winter Carnival. At $31 she represents great value for mine. She maps well in the race with some good speed. We could see the partners Stephanie and Ben battling out the last race for their share of the $1 million on offer here!

It would not be a WINNO tip preview if I did not mention Boomtown Lass (6) from the Chris Anderson stables to be ridden by Matthew McGillivray. I think he was quoted after her last effort as saying, “she is my new favourite horse”.

I know many of the owners read this blog each week. After it is published, I get the obligatory sledges – “you did not tip her you idiot” – “she will win, and we will give it to you” – and then we have my young mate James Goves who just says “told you so” after the race when she fills a place. SO, LET ME BE CLEAR – she is a BIG CHANCE to win $1 million dollars for you lot. She wins – you buy me dinner! Fifth up – she probably has one more run left in her this preparation regardless of the result – 1300 metres will suit her – she races on the speed – she will be working home well into the race late – she just must get a few things go right for her on the day and she CAN WIN – there you go – I have given you this kiss of death!

Macewen (4) from Gollan Racing gives the stable a chance to finish off the day on a high. This gelding stormed home last start at Eagle Farm with Ryan Maloney in the saddle. They remain together here as well – an interesting statistic is that Maloney / Gollan strike rate is 29% - you cannot overlook that going into this race.

Boomnova (18) is a Munce Racing runner who was heavily backed last weekend and got the chocolates with Bobby El-Issa riding. They will make the field here with some early scratchings in the race. She keeps on working through her grades and faces her acid test here, but wow she was strong to the line last weekend and gets in on the minimum. The barrier gods have not been nice drawing barrier 19 but she must be respected. Finally, a shout out to Justin Huxtable who was kicked in the abdomen last weekend by the Clerk of the Course’s horse in the saddling enclosure – a freak accident. Get well soon mate – hope you are back in the saddle punching out winners again!
Selections:

5 – Jami Lady
10 – Yamazaki
4 – Macewen
2 – The Odyssey
Rough chance – (6) Boomtown Lass & (18) Boomnova
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Jockey’s Challenge

Nash Rawiller got the chocolates for me last weekend at $6 – he has a solid book of rides again here, so I am sticking with him again. Just keep your eye on Glen Boss who always shines on these big days and Brenton Avdulla who has picked up some nice rides across the day.

Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)

3,5,10,11 / 2,3,4,6 / 2,3,9,18 /2,9,11 - cost is $192 to $1

Value Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)

3,5 / 2,3,6 / 2.3,18 / 2,9,11 - cost is $54 to $1

Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

1,6,11,12,15 /3,5,13,15 / 1,3,8,12 / 2,4,5,6,10 - cost is $400 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

1,6,12 / 3,5 / 3,8,12 / 4,5,10 - cost is $54 to $1

Treble (races 7 to 9)

3,5,13,15 / 1,3,8,12 / 2,4,5,6,10 - cost is $80 to $1

Value treble (races 7 to 9)

3,5 / 3,8,12 / 4,5,10 - cost is $18 to $1

WINNO V FLEMO

WINNO narrowly defeated FLEMO last weekend in our tipping competition. The battle continues.

Last year FLEMO tipped 7 winners on this program – so NO PRESSURE MATE!

Be sure to check the up to date and amended tips each Saturday morning on Facebook after any track changes and scratchings where I will post our selections and any late mail!

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