WINNO'S WINNERS: DOOMBEN 10 000 DAY

By Darren Winningham | Thursday, May 13, 2021

DOOMBEN RACES – SATURDAY 15 MAY 2021

This weekend we are back at DOOMBEN. At the time of writing the track is rated “HEAVY” and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

This weekend the Group 1, Doomben 10,000 highlights the card – will we see this year’s Stradbroke winner go around?

Racing is warming up in Queensland – whilst we start to freeze!

NB: As these selections were made prior to race-day please check for any changes to track conditions and for any scratchings on the day.

Race 1

We start the day off with a sprint.

The Move (12) must be respected from the Tony Gollan yards with Glen Boss to ride. He has drawn the rails and will sit in behind the speed – I do not expect him to lead. He won easily in a lower grade last start at Warwick Farm two weeks ago where the stewards did report some blood in his offside nostril, but he is now back at home on his home turf where he has performed well previously. I just am concerned that he is up in grade and the odds are very short for this runner.

The stablemate is Le Palmier (3) who comes off a four week freshen up after racing in Listed grade at Eagle Farm. Nothing wrong with the run for mine – just I think back in grade here this weekend and a wet track could prove beneficial.

Gee Tee Tee (6) is second up here for Steven O’Dea and Matthew Hoysted. I see they have booked Nash Rawiller to ride him this weekend. Nash will suit this gelding as his vigorous riding style will ensure he keeps his mind on the job. He has drawn perfectly to be three pairs back in behind the speed and, second up, I expect him to run a huge race.

If the track stays in the heavy range make sure you have something on the John Johnstone trained Moonshine Lady (9) – she thrives in heavy conditions – Luke Tarrant to ride and, as I always say, he looks great in BLUE silks!

Selections:

6 – Gee Tee Tee
12 – The Move
3 – Le Palmier
9 - Moonshine Lady
Rough chances – (7) Howwonderfullifeis

Race 2

Only a small field here to face the starter over a mile at Listed level.

Fabric (3) comes off a very good win last start at Morphettville at Group 2 level for Danny O’Brien. Glen Boss picks up another nice ride here. She has never seen a heavy track – but has always performed well on soft surfaces.

The best wet tracker here if the track is heavy is Flash Aah (4), trained by Mitchell Fry, who will be ridden again by Madeleine Wishart. Now if the track is a bog, you must be having something on this runner at the $16 on offer.

The Freedman Racing team bring Luvoir (7) to Brisbane after what on face value was a poor effort at Hawkesbury. I think you can forgive the run – second up – resented the track and the way the race was run. Look for an improved effort this weekend with Jim Byrne to ride. He will handle wet conditions.

Chris Waller Racing trains Reloaded (3) – a good effort last start – I just can never catch this runner. James McDonald has been commissioned with getting this runner first past the post – just remember he Reloaded has not won in 106 weeks!

Selections:

3 – Fabric
4 – Flash Aah
7 – Luvior
2 – Reloaded

Race 3

This is a tough race over 1350 metres.

There are a few resuming here – the wet track, in my opinion, may catch them out.

I am going for the rock hard fit Incredulous Dream (11) from the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace stables who is coming off a striking win three weeks ago at Morphettville over 1400 metres at Listed level. Kerrin McEvoy will ride her this weekend and, at the set weights, she gets in well here. I always remember that Maher’s horses always seem to go better here at Doomben as well, so I think that is a big tick in her favour.

Love Tap (3) last season’s racing sensation who went from strength to strength is from the Freedman racing team and resumes here with Nash Rawiller to keep his association with this gelding. He had a nice trial recently where he was not really asked to do much. I am just concerned this weekend that, first up on a wet track may just test him in the final 100 metres. This gelding is a quality runner and will benefit from this run – he will be competitive across the upcoming Carnival.

Batangas Entry (6) is trained locally by Kelly Schweida Racing and has the services of Jimmy Orman. He goes well fresh and won a trial earlier this week. Has a superb record at Doomben as well.

Tony Gollan has a couple of runners here. I like Starosa (12) who is second up here this weekend. Undefeated in 2 starts second up – likes a wet track as well – Michael Rodd to ride.

Selections:

11– Incredulous Dream
3 – Love Tap
6 – Batangas Entry
12 – Starosa
Rough chances– (1) Aim

Race 4 JRA TROPHY CHAIRMAN’S HANDICAP (Group 3)

The distance race – sponsored by long term sponsor JRA.

I like the Kris Lees trained Attention Run (9) who is second up here this weekend with Andrew Mallyon to ride at 54 kilograms. Mallyon would have been running, sweating, not eating all week to get down to 54kg – I hope he can get this runner home! Attention Run has had a seven-week let up since his first up effort and he thrives on wet tracks. Down on the minimum here he gets into this race very well. He has solid form over longer distances as well so this should make sure he is competitive this weekend.

Hang Man (1) comes off a good third in the JRA Plate (Group 3) at Randwick last start for Michael Moroney. Despite the massive weight he must carry he looks perfectly placed by the stable with Glen Boss to ride. In that run he had a solid last 800 metres sectional and pulled up after the race displaying the thumps. He will be ready to go hard here this week.

Warning (3) has raced at Group 1 level most of his career. He is perfectly placed here by Anthony & Sam Freedman this weekend with local jock Jim Byrne to ride him. I would expect that he will be right in this race this weekend. He is only a four-year-old and has not posted a win in 79 weeks but he could easily get away with this race here.

Seat of Power (12) is the likely leader – no weight on his back in this race. He could just keep rolling along on a wet track and prove impossible to run down – Ben Thompson rides this gelding well.

Walking Flying (10) from Edmonds Racing will thrive on a heavy track – just in case the track is a bog – keep safe.

Selections:

9 – Attention Run
3 – Warning
1 – Hang Man
12 – Seat Of Power
Rough chances– (10) Walking Flying

Race 5 Champagne Classic (Group 2)

A Group 2 race for the two-year-old runners over 1200 metres.

Kelly Schweida trains Miss Hipstar (10) who resumed with a bold effort first up at Eagle Farm. She is second up here and there is some good speed in this race. I expect Larry Cassidy to get in behind the speed and get some cover before exposing her late and hopefully gets the chocolates and some more black type to go against her career record. I have always had some concerns with her over 1200 metres – but her first up effort would suggest she has come back bigger and stronger and could take some holding out.

See You In Spring (11) is undefeated in two career starts. She is trained by Trent Busuttin & Natalie Young with Daniel Moor making the trip north to partner her here to help try and keep her unbeaten record intact. She won last start at Morphettville over 1050 metres at Listed level. She burst through late and won the race after she also won well on debut on a soft track at Cranbourne. I think a wet track does not hinder her chances.

I have a huge respect for the Chris Waller Racing. Each year he seems to debut a runner in QLD and they seem to get the job done. This Flying Artie colt Giannis (4) fits that brief this weekend with Kerrin McEvoy aboard. He has drawn well, and he won a recent barrier trial dominantly on a heavy track – so there are no issues. If the track gets wet – he will handle it. I have always thought this runner will be best placed over distance as in his only two career starts, he has stormed home, posted brilliant sectionals and then has sometimes got caught up in the ruck late and not been tested. If he gets some luck in running, he could slay this field.

Tiger of Malay (2) – put a line through the last start effort. Fired up, he went to the front and could not go on with the effort and weakened late. The Richard & Michael Freedman trained colt has since trialled with Nash Rawiller in the saddle who keeps the ride here. He won that trial easily.

Robert Heathcote trains Prince of Boom (7) who won impressively on a heavy track at the Sunshine Coast – could be a rough chance at a big price. Has been sensationally backed from $15 into $5.50 since the markets have opened – Ben Thompson retains the ride.

Selections:

4 – Giannis
10 – Miss Hipstar
11 – See You In Spring
2 – Tiger Of Malay
Rough chance – (7) Prince of Boom

Race 6 The Rough Habit Plate (Group 3)

First leg of the Quaddie this weekend. A nice race for three-year-old colts and geldings at Group 3 level. These runners will probably be looking to warm up for the Derby in a couple of weeks.

Chris Waller has several runners in the race.

The win of Senor Toba (8) last time out at Randwick when sensationally backed from $41 to $26 to win looks well placed here. He looks progressive and James McDonald rides him this weekend. He ran some great sectionals in the win and is he can repeat that effort here he may post consecutive wins.

One of the stablemates is Fortified (13) who won last time out at Eagle Farm when he chased home late and nailed the leaders. Jimmy Orman retains the ride and I think at around $31 this runner could be one that could place at huge odds – maybe even upset the more favoured runners.

The other Waller runner I like is Kurkeracha (4) who produced a strong run last start in the QLD Guineas. I think will settle and still work home well. If he gets the distance, it could be another win for the Waller & Luke Dittman combination.

The Richard & Michael Freedman trained High Supremacy (7) has promised so much. Just looks like he has all the goods – but just luck does not seem to favour him when it comes to race day. He could not reel in Senor Toba (8) last start in the Frank Packer Plate (Group 3). I just cannot see him turning the tables this weekend but Nash Rawiller has been booked for the ride and he is a master when it comes to tactics – maybe this is the winning edge this son of Savabeel needs.

I am thinking the Matt Cumani trained Khoekhoe (1) will be better suited with the addition of the tongue tie this weekend. Last time out he took control of the rider and I would put a pencil through that effort. It is great to see apprentice Justin Huxtable get allocated the ride on this colt.

Selections:

8 – Senor Toba
7 – High Supremacy
1 – Khoekhoe
13 – Fortified
Rough chance – (4) Kukeracha

Race 7 – 2021 – DOOMBEN 10,000 (Group 1)

The feature race at Group 1 level. The first leg of the treble here.

Just remember this race has turned up some rough results over the years!

Let me just start me saying that Eduardo (2) has been freshened since his last start when he led in the TJ Smith and was run down by Nature Strip – he is a class above these runners. Nash Rawiller and Joseph Pride are looking to combine and win his second Group 1 race after he won The Galaxy (Group 1) back in late March. I just think that the 1200 metres on a wet track may see him being a sitting duck late – I am happy to be wrong here – as he deserves another Group 1 win – but I just have some reservations.

Wild Ruler (9) is from the Snowden Racing stables and comes out of the Arrowfield Sprint (Group 2) with a great win. Before that he was thrashed by Eduardo (2) in The Galaxy – so he is a genuine Group 1 contender? The question will be answered on Saturday as James McDonald attempts to get him to win his first Group 1 win after having three prior cracks in a Group 1 event. He is only a three-year-old – maybe this Brisbane Winter Carnival will see him thrive and show he true ability – or maybe not!

Now I think you can read between the lines – I am looking for a swooper – something that can power home late and run some good sectionals late. I may be way off the mark here, but I like The Harrovian (7) to land the Edmonds Racing team their second Group 1 winner – after all he did win the 2020 Stradbroke. The weight will not bother him – he loves weight – he goes great on any conditions, in fact is probably better when it is a bit damp, and you know that he is a fighter – he will give his all. Brad Stewart is in the saddle again this weekend. I just hope that he gets clear running out wide in the straight or in behind Eduardo (2) and he can nail him in the shadows of the post. He just seems to race well fresh – there are some big question marks over some of these other runners for mine. The grandstand will go wild and North QLD TABs will go broke if he wins this race – he has a massive following!

Splintex (5) is from the Mark Newnham stables and he won last start in the Hall Mark Stakes (Group 3) with Joshua Parr in the saddle. Has had a three-week break between runs and he loves heavy tracks – in case the track gets into that range. With the good speed set by the favourite Eduardo (2) he probably will be ridden closer, like he was last start, and finish the race off strongly.

Vega One (6) from Gollan Racing was run down late last start in the Group 2 Victory Stakes. He will be thereabouts again and with the speed on he will be storming home late. Glen Boss retains the ride on this runner. He also enjoys wet tracks.

Trekking (1) – the 2019 Stradbroke winner – was sent out favourite last start and just faded late. I am certain he will strip fitter – the question really is – is he past his best? He has a tremendous second up record, likes soft going and Kerrin McEvoy has a 6-win record on him – maybe that is the key to his chances this weekend.

It will be a wonderful race – just look for an upset is my summary!

Selections:

7 – The Harrovian
2 – Eduardo
9 – Wild Ruler
5 – Splintex
Rough chance – (1) Trekking & (6) Vega One

Race 8 MAGIC MILLIONS BRIGHT SHADOW (Listed)

Another wonderful race on the program – the Bright Shadow for Fillies and Mares.

The Godolphin team will be looking to break the drought in Brisbane with this runner – Athiri (3). She has performed well on heavy tracks without posting a win. I do have some concerns with her second up here. I am prepared to overlook the first up run at Hawkesbury when she was sent out as favourite and had no luck and the race was not run to suit her. She has a very strong and powerful sprint late. Kerrin McEvoy will be able to sit in behind the speed – with cover maybe she can get another win in QLD.

Blazing Miss (6) is trained by Mark Newnham – Michael Cahill to ride her. She was first up at Hawkesbury and just didn’t get into the race. Let’s forget she went around there and look at her previous form on wet tracks and second up. Now they both tick boxes as she has three wins second up and has won on both heavy and soft tracks. She has drawn exceptionally well in barrier 1 and she will benefit from a genuine race tempo – she is posted at $15 in some markets – overs for me!

The mare I can make a serious case for at odds is Maozi (13) – currently at $26 and trained by Edmonds Racing with Glen Boss to ride. I will just say this – if this race was 1350 metres, I would be declaring her! She resumed over 1110 metres three weeks ago here and worked home nicely late. She is a mare that must have speed on in the race and she will do the rest. I think with the track being heavy it will probably race more like a 1300 metres race. In that case I can make a genuine case to put her on top to defeat the two Sydney runners. In fact, I will be having something on her each way at these silly odds. She is great second up, she likes wet tracks and I think, if Glen Boss can weave a path in the straight and give her clear running, she can run some tremendous final sectionals. I probably have just talked myself into putting her on top – well let’s see what track conditions are and if there are any track biases come Saturday. If they are winning from the rear of the field – I would be backing her each way. The jockey change is an important change for me as well.

Intrepadacious (10) is from the John O’Shea stables with Stephanie Thornton booked to ride. She has been around the $6 mark since prices went up early – she has been kept safe. It is understandable why there is that respect for this runner as she won well carrying a huge weight last start at Caulfield. Previously to that she looked like to have a race shot to pieces at the Gold Coast the week before Magic Millions before being run down in the shadows of the post. She seems to race well fresh and with her races spaced apart – she gets every chance here.

Some other chances include Fiesta (1) – just some concerns with this runner on a rain affected track.

Socialising (8) from Gollan Racing likes Doomben and this distance – has had a freshen up since her last effort at the Gold Coast on a heavy track that was admirable. May be another one to consider.

Selections:

3 – Athiri
6 – Blazing Miss
13 – Maozi
10 – Intrepidacious
Rough chances – (1) Fiesta & (8) Socialising

Race 9

The last race – an extremely competitive field.

Hard way to finish the day but I think Kris Lees Racing and James “JMAC” McDonald may hold the key to this race with Cristal Breeze (3). He won the Provincial Championship last time out at Randwick on a good track coming from midfield and getting the job done. He gets a fair bit of weight here with the conditions of the race. He has solid form on heavy tracks – I just hope that the weight is not the factor that stops him here this weekend. He has had a month between runs and recently a nice trial at home on the Newcastle track before being sent north to the Gold Coast.

Seglas (7) is a James Cummings runner who comes into this race with three starts under her belt - may be one to consider. She is rock hard fit and does enjoy wet tracks. She may be able to get up and win this race at some nice odds.

Superium (10) is from the team Hawkes stables coming to Brisbane after running recently in Melbourne – do they test horses for COVID-19? This gelding is third up and will be ready to fire here this weekend with Ryan Maloney to ride him. He has drawn wide, but this should not impact on him here as he will race a few pairs back and should finish off the race strongly.

Michael Costa trains Axe (11) with Jag Guthmann-Chester riding him again here this weekend. He was very good last start, despite drawing a very wide barrier, when he was run down late here by Skins. He has failed on a heavy track previously so there are some reservations there – but has solid form on soft surfaces. He gets in nicely at the weights and has been very consistent.

Do not overlook Love Struck (6) who is silly odds at $51 here in the last. I think he is now looking for the mile this preparation, but with this race being on a wet track the 1350 metres may race like a mile and he has superb form on wet surfaces. Justin Huxtable stays in the saddle for Scott Morrisey from the Gold Coast – some value for your exotics.

Roasted (16) is a BJ Smith runner. Only a lightly raced mare – gets the right draw and no weight – may show up with Michael Cahill in the saddle.

Selections:

3 – Cristal Breeze
10 - Superium
7 – Segalas
11 – Axe
Rough chances – (6) Love Struck & (16) Roasted
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Jockey’s Challenge

Looks like it will be a tough challenge between Kerrin McEvoy and Nash Rawiller – I will go with Kerrin this week.

It may all come back to scratchings once the final track conditions and final scratchings are decided.

Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)

3,4,7 / 3,6,11,12 / 1,3,9 / 2,4,10,11 - cost is $144 to $1

Value Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)

3,4 / 3,11 / 3,9 / 4,10,11 - cost is $24 to $1

Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

1,7,8,13 / 1,2,5,7,9 / 3,6,10,13 / 3,7,10,11 - cost is $320 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

1,7,8 / 2,7,9 / 3,6,13 / 3,7,10 - cost is $81 to $1

Treble (races 7 to 9)

1,2,5,7,9 / 3,6,10,13 / 3,7,10,11 - cost is $80 to $1

WINNO V FLEMO

WINNO got FLEMO in our tipping competition last weekend – it was a drubbing! As the races get harder each week, I am certain that we will continue to have uneven battles as we look for some value across the Carnival. Be sure to check Facebook on Saturday morning for our updated information where I will post our selections and any late mail!