WINNO'S WINNERS: EAGLE FARM, MAY 29, 2021
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, May 27, 2021
Eagle Farm this weekend – featuring the Group 1 Queensland Derby and the Group 1 Kingsford Smith.
The track is rated “GOOD” and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Who knows what we well get this weekend at Eagle Farm? Some weeks the track favours leaders whilst other weeks you can win from anywhere – maybe see how the first few races play out to try and identify a pattern and see what runners you should be backing.
I think I will go for horses racing handy this week – let us hope that I am right.
We are only two weeks out from State of Origin – who knows where there will play it.
A special mention to Alex “The Toad” Nolan who came out with a great sledge earlier in the week after I fired the first shot on Facebook! It went like this “It’s fitting that the NSW Rugby League team carries the Cockroach name – because you are a PEST!!”.You know what I was happy to see this – as we all know cockroaches will survive anything and live on forever – go NSW!
Back to the racing – massive program ahead of us. I am going to say no favourite will win a race on this card. Value to be had and the bookmakers may give the punters another hiding this weekend.
Kerrin McEvoy was on fire last weekend with a superb winning treble. This seemed to be the story in 2020 when one jockey seemed to dominate each week across the Carnival – who will take the honours this weekend?
NB: As these selections were made prior to race-day please check for any changes to track conditions and for any scratchings on the day.
Race 1
Tough way to start the day here and some early scratchings from the race has thinned the field out.
Jamie Kah has made her way to the Queensland Racing Carnival and rides Fashchanel (10) for the John O’Shea stables in NSW. She has been in superb form in Victoria this season and she brings another new dynamic to the meeting. This runner has won her past two starts. She will race on the speed and despite only winning in restricted grade in her past two starts looks like a solid way to start the day. There was as much as $31 bet when prices opened and now the price is $2.40 with the scratchings and the support for this runner.
The other runner who will probably be ridden in behind this leader and who has raced well is the Richard & Michael Freedman trained Luvoir (5) with Jim Byrne aboard. I think, coming back from a solid effort at the mile last start to 1400 metres, he will be strong at the finish.
If they can make ground late and trouble the judge, I would be suggesting that you back the Edmonds Racing runner Maozi (12) who seemed to get caught in the wrong part of the track last time out in the Listed Bright Shadow. This weekend, with good tempo, I expect Glen Boss to peel her wide and make a dash late and wide at them. She could get home late and win this race easily.
Profit (6) is trained by Chris Anderson and does race well at this track- has a wonderful first up record and is ideally placed. James McDonald has been booked to ride for the stable. Again, if they can make ground – he will be right in this race when the whips are cracking.
Selections:
10 – Fashchanel
12 – Maozi
5 – Luvoir
6 – Profit
Race 2
The first leg of the Early Quaddie is over 1200 metres.
Superium (9) is a Team Hawkes runner scratched from race 1 to race here. Ryan Maloney will ride. In his first run in QLD he got too far back at Doomben and worked home nicely. I think dropping back from 1350 metres to 1200 metres will suit this runner.
Kordia (8) has been plagued with leg problems in his limited career with only seven starts. His is trained by James Cummings for Godolphin and has the services of Hugh Bowman. He has had three trials and looks like he will race well here. Just a little concerned with the synthetic hoof filler with this firm Eagle Farm track – other than that he looks well placed in this grade.
Dr Why Not (7) will be the leader and setting a good tempo from barrier 12 with Madeleine Wishart to ride him again for Gold Coast trainer Scott Morrisey. He loves the Eagle Farm track and Wishart’s three-kilogram places him with a solid chance here.
Bold Style (5) is trained by Garnett Taylor. He was solid in his first two starts from a spell. Ryan Wiggins will be keen to post a win on a feature race day for the stable and give Will Allam (the dirty QLDER) an appropriate salute when he returns to scale.
Snitch (1) is a Gollan Racing runner who gives the boom apprentice Kyle Wilson Taylor ride his first Saturday metro runner. This runner resumes here and has a very strong recent trial. They could decide to bounce him out and take a sit in behind Dr Why Not (7) and then power home late.
Beachbreak (14) is trained by Toby & Trent Edmonds. Resumes here – good trial on the Gold Coast two weeks ago and Jim Byrne to ride. Do not overlook this mare.
Selections:
9 – Superium
8 – Kordia
7 – Dr Why Not
5 – Bold Style
Rough chances – (1) Snitch & (14) Beachbreak
Race 3 Fred Best Classic (Group 3)
The first of our feature races.
Let us start with the Victorian sensation Ayrton (1) trained by Mick Price & Michael Kent who is a very short-priced favourite at around $1.70 to be ridden by Jamie Kah. He is three starts for three wins. Kah has ridden him in all three starts and he looks the one to beat. I just am going to say it now – he cannot win this race (egg on the face time) - just first start here in QLD and on Eagle Farm – I will look for something to beat him this weekend. If he wins, he proves the massive wraps that they have on him and I will apologise in public!
So now I have gotten him beaten – who can I tip on top?
Apache Chase (3) is a war horse on this track and will be in front for a long way. Trained by Desleigh Forster, he will be ridden by Jim Byrne again. He is undefeated at the track and distance of 1400 metres and I think the mile last time out probably suggests he will be very competitive here again this weekend – watch out!
Glitter Strip (12) is a Gollan Racing runner at around the $41 mark. She was unwanted in the betting at Doomben last start but flew home and won. Again, she gets into the race well here this weekend and Ben Thompson retains the ride – just one concern I think she goes better across the road.
The stable mate is Palladas (11), drawn the rails this weekend with the addition of blinkers and Tim Clark (a great NSW man) has the ride. He has won third up previously and I think that, back at Eagle Farm, he will be better this weekend. Some massive odds as well at $41 – he is a solid each way chance.
Then you have Exoboom (7) from Snowden Racing who was chopped out and inconvenienced last start in the Inglis Guineas at Rosehill. In his previous start he rocketed home to win the Hawkesbury Guineas (Group 3). The sectionals were very good. If he can reproduce that run here, he will be winning this race – fourth run this preparation.
Aim (1) is the other Snowden Racing runner. Will be ridden by James McDonald and comes out of the Hawkesbury Guineas race where he just did not fire. Forget that run. He had a nice recent trial after the 28-day let up and he won that trial. He has raced previously raced well fresh and could just get a nice trail into the race.
In summary – I really do not know what’s best here! I do know that if the favourite does not run in the first 4 you will need a massive truck to get your winnings home!
Selections:
7 – Exoboom
3 – Apache Chase
9 – Ayrton
11 – Palladas
Rough chance - (1) Aim
Race 4 The Lord Mayor’s Cup (Group 3)
Over 1800 metres - an even field here.
This could be another race with an upset looming. I think that Vanna Girl (6) from Edmonds Racing on the Gold Coast is a great each way proposition here. She has a solid record at the track with two starts for two wins and looks well placed in this grade after her recent effort in the Hollindale on the Gold Coast three weeks ago. Brad Stewart goes back on her as well – 2 rides for 2 wins. I think that she will jump from barrier 7 and be midfield and should get a nice cart into the race.
Chris Waller Racing is well represented with two runners and Reloaded (7), in my opinion, is the best of them. He seems to have found a purple patch of form since being transferred to the Gold Coast branch of the stable. Maybe the warmer weather has helped him. No matter what the reason, his effort at Doomben a fortnight ago was solid over 1600 metres. The way he let down in the final 150 metres with James McDonald aboard would suggest that the extra 200 metres this weekend will not be any drama.
The stable mate is So You Win (11) who ran in the Chairman’s handicap last start over 2000 metres and was defeated in the final stride when Warning flashed down the outside and pipped him on the post. Hugh Bowman goes aboard this weekend in only his fourth run this preparation he looks well placed. He did race towards the rear of the field last start. I think they may adopt different tactics this weekend and push up a little closer to race on the speed – this could be a winning move.
Homesman (1) looks the likely leader. A proven Group 1 performer with the 2021 Australian Cup win in his resume he looks perfectly placed by Anthony & Sam Freedman. He looked like he needed the run last time out in the Hollindale where he just didn’t parade well for mine. I think now he has had the run and settled in there could be a dramatic form reversal this weekend. Jye McNeil remains the jockey.
The Candy Man (10) is the local representative from the Barry Baldwin stables. This runner is always well supported by the public on the TAB. Michael Cahill has been booked to ride him. He turned in a good effort last start when beaten by Warning in that blanket finish at Doomben which was the best effort for some time.
Selections:
6 – Vanna Girl
7 – Reloaded
1 – Homesman
11 – So You Win
Rough chance – (10) The Candy Man
Race 5 Premier’s Cup (Group 3)
This would have to be the toughest race of the day over 2400 metres at Group 3 level. Who knows what to do here?
I liked the performance of the progressive, Richard & Michael Freedman trained Alakahan (10) when he won the Gold Coast Cup last time out - some nice sectionals and showed a good turn of foot. A jockey change this weekend with Ben Thompson getting the ride, Alakahan is currently at $16 which are ridiculous odds to me. Ben has been in great form and his riding style will suit this runner.
The stable mate is Paths To Glory (7) who has the service of Craig Williams this weekend. He carried a big weight last time out in the Wagga Cup and was doing his best work late. Probably didn’t get all that much luck in the running on that occasion. Look for Williams to probably skirt along the rails here late and save some ground and attempt to win this race. It could be a feature race quinella for the Richard & Michael Freedman camp.
The other side of the Freedman camp – Sam & Anthony - have the pre-post favourite in Le Don De Vie (2) who will be the leader in the race. Look there is nothing wrong with his recent win in the Warrnambool Cup when he was too good for them – but at $3.60 I just think he is weighted to his best in this field and may be a sitting duck late. Happy to be proven wrong – Mark Zahra rides this runner.
Spirit Ridge (3) is trained in NSW by Mark Newnham. Josh Parr has the ride for this Darby Racing syndicated gelding. He was truly unlucky in the recent Wagga Cup being run down in the shadows of the post when carrying 60 kilograms. I think from barrier 4 he can probably race three pairs back from the leader – but if they are leading and winning look for him to probably take a sit in behind the likely leader Le Don De Vie (2) and attempt to outsprint him late in the race.
Southern France (1) has had a six week freshen up since the Sydney Cup for the Ciaron Maher & David Eustace stables. John Allen will ride. Probably will be better for the outing, but I think will need to show them something here this weekend if he is going to have any success at the Carnival in coming weeks.
Chris Waller Racing has Brimham Rocks (4) in the race as well. Has won at the track – recent form in Victoria has been solid – comes to sunny warm QLD – he could fill a place at big odds with Hugh Bowman to ride.
Selections:
10 – Alakahan
3 – Spirit Ridge
7 – Paths Of Glory
1 – Southern France
Rough chance – (2) Le Don De Vie (4) Brimham Rocks
Race 6 BRC SIRE’S PRODUCE (Group 2)
One of the feature races over 1400 metres – Group 2 for the two-year-old runners and the first leg of the Quaddie.
I am not moving away from the Waller Racing runner that I was keen on last start – Giannis (13) – load up here for mine! He seemed to be stirred up in the parade ring and then at the barrier. Very unusual for this runner. I watched the race and he just seemed to not sprint or offer too much in the running late. He raced as if he was a horse looking for further. He gets the extra distance this weekend – a bigger track to make his run and then there are a few horses engaged here – Converge (2) in particular that will cart them along at a good clip that should ensure that this runner gets every possible chance to storm home late. He is second up here and Kerrin McEvoy takes the reins this weekend after his wonderful display last weekend posting a winning treble.
In saying that nothing can be taken away from the Robert Heathcote Racing runner – Prince of Boom (3) who did exactly that last time out in the Champagne – he just went BOOOOM! A superb effort in a good quality field that has been franked since. Ben Thompson has a big opinion of this runner. He looks like the 1400 metres will be no trouble – has been well supported again in this race since the markets have opened – cannot find any excuses for him – just needs some luck in running and will be bothering the judge for sure when he calls a halt to the race.
Gleneagles (5) is the runner that I am very worried about this weekend. He is trained by David Payne – a masterful trainer who places his horses to perfection. This Capitalist colt has won his past two starts since resuming from a spell. His last start at Hawkesbury over 1400 metres in the Clarendon was superb! The sectionals were amazing, and I can see this runner being a real threat in this race. There has been good support as well with him firming from $17 to $12 since the markets opened. Jason Collett rode him at Hawkesbury and makes the trip to QLD to try to claim another feature race. I will be having something on this runner each way for sure!
Subterranean (1) won well at the Gold Coast last time out for the Matthew Dunn Racing team. Nash Rawiller timed the run to perfection and nailed Ranch Hand (7) on the post in the final stride in the Ken Russell Memorial over 1200 metres. The way he attacked the line late strongly suggests that the extra distance is right up his alley.
Ranch Hand (7) should not be overlooked this weekend. Trained by Chris Waller and James “JMAC” McDonald retains the ride. Got caught in the worse part of the track in the Ken Russell for mine and probably was just peaking on the line. He will strip fitter and with the track playing even this weekend he may just pull down the oppositions pants and repay the punters who backed him into a short-priced favourite on the Gold Coast - $2.05 and get the chocolates - at a massive price this weekend of $7.
Rhapsody Rose (15) was sensational last weekend in the Bill Carter. Trained by Chris Munce and ridden by stable apprentice Justin Huxtable. Hurtable was involved in a race fall on Wednesday at Doomben but has appeared to escape any serious injury and should ride the filly on Saturday. She has always demonstrated above average ability. This was the filly where he was in the Gold Coast mounting yard and was kicked by the clerk of the courses horse back in January – probably karma would suggest that she should win this race and pay him back for the time he spent recuperating after that incident.
It is a very good field – I think that it may be a rough result – so play wide.
Selections:
13 – Giannis
5 – Gleneagles
3 – Prince of Boom
1 – Subterranean
Rough chances – (7) Ranch Hand and (15) Rhapsody Rose
Race 7 Queensland Derby (Group 1)
Over the 2400 metres here for the first leg of the treble – at Group 1 level.
Let us start with some astounding facts here: Chris Waller Racing - six runners. Ciaron Maher & David Eustace - three runners. That is half of the field between them, so will they trifecta and own the first 4 between them? WINNO thinks so – but in what order I am not too sure!
Let us start with a Ciaron Maher & David Eustace runner Explosive Jack (1) - probably the best performed runner in the race leading into this feature event. Has won the ATC Derby and the SA Derby in his past two starts – both times ridden by John Allen – and guess what? It was Ciaron Maher’s birthday on Thursday this week. What better way to celebrate with a feature Group 1 winner at the 2021 Brisbane Winter Racing Carnival – like it is not as if he does not have feature wins each year at this Carnival!
Back to Explosive Jack (1) – he can race handy – race midfield probably will be a huge advantage come Saturday if there is any track bias. Either way, the versatility will enable John Allen to position him according to the racing pattern and ensure he is hard to beat. He is the early pre-post favourite at $2.80. I just like looking for something to knock these favourites off in these big races.
The stable mate is Lets Karaka Deal (2) who ran second to Explosive Jack (1) in the SA Derby. Was comprehensively beaten on that occasion but, you never know, Eagle Farm could see a different result. Ben Allen retains the ride. He did run a gallant fifth in the Victorian Derby back in November. He is a solid contender.
Now for the Chris Waller Racing runners. I really think he holds the key to this race with two runners in particular – Achiever (4) and Fortified (14). Achiever (4) comes off a good win at Rosehill over 2000 metres last start. He led all the way and was too good. Tommy Berry rode him on that occasion and this weekend Nash Rawiller takes over – the gelding will lose nothing here. Plus, Star Thoroughbreds syndicates this runner – they won the last race on the program last weekend – The Roses (Group 2) with Only Words ridden by Craig Williams - could they win the Derby and the Oaks in one year – now that would be a story to write! Just remember you heard it here first! I do not think they need to lead here with some other runners that will probably push forward, but he will race in the first half of the field.
Fortified (14) is the stable mate to be piloted by Jimmy Orman. This runner won a midweek race at Ipswich – his time was good, and sectionals were good – carried 58 kilograms and won with some authority – 4 lengths to be precise. This race has been used previously to tune up a runner for this race and they normally go well on race day. He is not all that rough at $16, but I think he may get out in the market as the race gets closer.
Senor Toba (9) was sent out favourite last start at Doomben – JMAC rode him. He just got too far back but, you know what, when you review the race on video the run was full of merit - storming home in-between runners to flash home and only be beaten by 1.5 lengths to run third. This horse in my opinion probably had the best Derby trial of all the field. Hugh Bowman to ride here – and at $5 has been well found in the market. I just think with the wide track and IF they can make ground here on Saturday, he has the perfect form and pedigree to get away with this race.
Horrifying (8) will be ridden by Jamie Kah. Trained in Victoria by Sam Kavanagh, there will be a wave of support for this runner due to Jamie riding him. His recent efforts have been solid and, on his last start win at Flemington over 2000 metres, he must be considered.
This is a tremendous race – if the favourite does not win – it could be a big pay day for bookmakers!
Selections:
4 – Achiever
1 – Explosive Jack
9 – Senor Toba
14 – Fortified
Rough chances – (2) Lets Karaka Deal, (3) Kukeracha (8), Horrifying.
Race 8 Kingsford Smith Cup (Group 1)
WFA over 1200 metres - an even field here to face the starter. This race invariably turns up a rough result each year.
The Godolphin runners all have chances – Trekking (1), Savatiano (13) and Kementari (5).
Savatiano (13) has Hugh Bowman on top. He will be in the leading back – sitting in behind the pace and looks ideally drawn in barrier 8 to get across and be given the run of the race. As I said earlier these days can feature a particular jockey and Hugh Bowman certainly has some nice rides this weekend. Last time out Savatiano was second in the All-Aged Stakes behind Kolding beaten just 0.1 lengths. I really think that the 1300 metres is the key to his success. That extra 100 metres can sometimes test him late in the races. He will be strong to the line and take some beating.
Kementari (5) will be ridden by Joshua Parr – see those BLUE silks will look great on this NSW jockey! He has had a month between runs in the All Aged and has had a barrier trial at Wyong where he was not asked to do much and went to the line under a hard hold. He is the type of runner that causes an upset when he wins, and I think this weekend he gets the chance to post a Group 1 win and at serious odds of around $21. The only concern is he likes to get back and flash home – if they are winning on the speed that may rule him out of contention.
Tony Gollan Racing has Vega One (9) backing up out of the Doomben 10,000 (Group 1) where he was finishing off at a rate of knots late. He likes this track. I probably would be more confident if the race was over 1400 metres, but I think that he will be right in this race – the added bonus this weekend is that Jamie Kah, the jockey of the moment, has been booked to ride him. She has plundered Victorian racing all season it would be wonderful for her to salute in this Group 1 race up here!
Savatoxl (3) produced a great run in The Goodwood last time out. He went to the lead with 300 metres to go and every other runner had his chance to run him down, but he just kept on going and made them look second rate. He is trained by Tony & Calvin McEvoy and he does go to Weight For Age here, but he will race on the speed and should be considered. I think from barrier 14 he should be able to work across without using too much energy as well – Barend Vorster retains the ride.
Gytrash (2) comes out of the Goodwood as well – Jason Collett rides again – a rough hope.
Another local chance is Niccanova (8). Trainer Steve Tregea and Jimmy Orman combine again to attempt to win another feature race with this war horse. He is ultra-consistent racing in the highest grades – 38 starts for 10 wins and 13 placings. He goes good on this track and there is no knock from me that he cannot come out again this weekend and win again. I think whatever he does this weekend will set him up for his Grand Final in the Stradbroke in a fortnight’s time.
Selections:
9 – Vega One
13 – Savatiano
5 – Kementari
3 – Savatoxl
Rough chance – (1) Trekking (2) Gytrash (8) Niccanova
Race 9 Helen Coughlan (Group 3)
The last race of the day over 1200 metres is a Group 3.
Sweet Deal (3) won the Hawkesbury Crown (Group 3) last time out a month ago. She loves dry surfaces and she will get a hard track at Eagle Farm on Saturday. Nash Rawiller should end the day on a winning note for trainer John Thompson.
Intrepidacious (9) is trained by John O’Shea. She looked like a certain winner last start in the Bright Shadow (Listed) but she was run down in the shadow of the post by the Tony Gollan Outback Barbie. She was second up on that run and maybe she was just a little short of peak fitness. This weekend she is third up and has a tremendous third up record. Tim Clark takes the reins this weekend she has drawn barrier 4. Will probably lead again in this field.
Exhilarates (4) is another Godolphin runner. This mare has had a six week freshen up and a barrier trial since her last effort at Morphettville. You can put a line through that run when she was severely checked in running and just did not let down late. Forgive that run and go on the effort in the Magic Millions Sprint where she ran second to Jonker. She gets in well here.
Madam Rouge (1) from Chris Waller Racing will be looking to win the last race for the stable this week. James McDonald rides. She resumes after an 11 week break – she seems to save her best racing for QLD, and she did finish second in last year’s Stradbroke. She can go well fresh and has had two barrier trials in the lead up to this assignment.
There are some rough chances with Mark Newnham’s Blazing Miss (8) and Lyre (13), who comes out of TAB Classic (Group 1) in South Australia last start. Not sure what happened on the day, but she did not race to expectations. Anthony & Sam Freedman have put Jamie Kah on board this weekend, but she will need some luck from barrier 19.
Wonderful Riri (13) is a Steven O’Dea and Matthew Hoysted trained mare – scratched from race 1 on the program. She is silly odds at $21 and has Ben Thompson aboard. This is a tougher race to win than the first race, however, has drawn well – will race forward so must be respected.
Open race to finish the day – the Quaddie should pay a motza this weekend!
Selections:
3 – Sweet Deal
9 – Intrepidacious
4 – Exhilarates
1 – Madam Rouge
Rough chances – (8) Blazing Miss (10) Lyre (13) Wonderful Riri
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Jockey’s Challenge
Tough field this weekend – Jamie Kah, Ben Thompson and Hugh Bowman. Maybe have something on both Jamie and Hugh – they should be decent prices.
Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)
1,7,8,9 / 3,7,9,11 / 1,6,7,11 / 1,3,7.10 - cost is $256 to $1
Value Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)
8,9 / 3,7,9 / 1,6,7 / 3,7,10 - cost is $54 to $1
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,3,5,13 / 1,2,4,9,14 / 2,5,9,13 / 1,3,4,9 - cost is $320 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
3,5,13 / 1,4,9,14 / 5,9,13 /3,4,9 - cost is $108 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
1,2,4,9,14 / 2,5,9,13 / 1,3,4,9 - cost is $80 to $1
WINNO V FLEMO
WINNO got FLEMO last weekend in a close contest in our tipping competition. This weekend things just keep getting harder! We all know State of Origin is coming up on us soon. There was a funny quote from FLEMO during the week after I sledged him and said I would buy his beautiful son Jackson a NSW jersey – here it is: “They did a heel prick on Jackson to check his blood type the other day – came out Maroon!” – one of his best!
Be sure to check the up to date and amended tips each Saturday morning on Facebook after any track changes and scratchings where I will post our selections and any late mail!
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