WINNO'S WINNERS: EAGLE FARM, JUNE 5, 2021

By Darren Winningham | Thursday, June 3, 2021

Eagle Farm this weekend – featuring the Group 1 Queensland Oaks – where the track is rated “GOOD” and the rail is out 2 metres for the entire circuit.

There is some rain forecast on Saturday and in the days in the lead up to the races – maybe that will just take the firmness out of the track. Last weekend the track played well with winners coming both from back in the field and on the pace. This weekend is the big test for the Eagle Farm circuit on the quick back up – will the pattern of racing alter at all?

In what could be described a sone of the best rides seen in Queensland, it was amazing to see Jamie Kah navigate what seemed an impossible pathway to win the Kingsford Smith Cup (Group 1) for Tony Gollan aboard Vega One. I was cursing at the 200 metres saying she could not get out when he was cantering and somehow, she forged though and won from the other Gollan runner Jonker in the final stride – what a ride!

Just for the record I did say no favourite would win in my pre-raceday preview last weekend – well I was right until they launched into the Chris Anderson trained Profit in the first race pushing the original favourite out of favouritism. Otherwise – no favourite won on the program – I told you so!

NB: As these selections were made prior to race-day please check for any changes to track conditions and for any scratchings on the day.

Race 1

Open field over 1810 metres.

The John Thompson trained Prince of Arragon (4) came to town and won a fortnight ago at Doomben. If he handles the track, he will be hard to toss again – Craig Williams rides.

Cellarmaid (7) has a superb record at the track. She did not fire last start out at Doomben when soundly defeated by Prince of Arragon (4). I think this weekend on this big track she should peel wide and be running home strong with Jimmy Orman in the saddle.

Traduce (10) resumes from a short let up after winning consecutive starts here for Gold Coast trainer Maryann Brosnan and Robbie Fradd. He comes back in distance, but I cannot see that being any drama.

Incentivise (11) has been working through his grades nicely for trainer Steve Tregea. Has won his past three starts and Anthony Allen, an accomplished jockey who does not ride often in town these days, has the ride.

Masaff (2), trained by Chris Waller, won last start at Ipswich – could pop up here. Looks a progressive type.

Selections:
4 – Prince of Arragon
7 – Cellarmaid
10 – Traduce
11 – Incentivise
Rough chance – (2) Masaff

Race 2 The Phoenix (Listed)

The first leg of the Early Quaddie is over 1500 metres for the two-year-old runners.

The Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott trained Volcanic Rock is a dual acceptor – Craig Williams to ride here.

He raced on the speed last time out at Rosehill and seemed to tire late over 1400 metres. That was his first run up from a spell – expect him to strip fitter and be hard to beat if he takes his place in the field. This looks like another nice ride for Craig Williams – he could win the first two races on the program!

Tutukaka (5) is trained in New Zealand by Tony Pike – he has a knack of producing a good one each year at the winter carnival – this could be the ONE! His effort at the Sunshine Coast when defeated by Tiger Heart was very good. I think that, stepping up in distance and now having his second run in Australia, he looks the one to beat. Michael Cahill is in the saddle.

Verbek (5) comes off a 1400 metres run at Hawkesbury – he was sent out a very short, priced favourite and to be fair looked disappointing. He is trained by Robert & Luke Price and Nash Rawiller will ride him here.

It’s All Talk is a local runner from the Steven O’Dea and Matthew Hoysted yard. She won at the Gold Coast last start, coming from off the speed and letting down nicely late to surge to the line strongly over 1400 metres. A repeat of that effort could see her posting an upset win here at around the $8 mark.

Selections:

5 – Tutukaka
9 – Volcanic Rock
10 – It’s All Talk
4 – Verbek

Race 3

A 1300 metre race – not one that I can get excited about.

Steven O’Dea and Matthew Hoysted train Tumbler Ridge (8) who is a dual acceptor. Kerrin McEvoy will ride this weekend. Has had a 4 week freshen up after racing at Group 2 level in the Queensland Guineas. Back in grade and back in distance, I think he is ideally placed in this race.

Bold Style (5) was storming home last weekend – it was hard to miss the run. He is obviously on the quick back up with Ben Thompson to ride for Garnett Taylor. He drops three kilograms from last weekend and goes up slightly in distance. On that run he is right in the race.

Desleigh Forster trains Red Chase (1) – who can ever forget her celebrations last weekend when Apache Chase won last weekend. She is a great trainer and, as with last week, she combines with Jim Byrne here again with this runner who went around in the Group 3 BRC Sprint at Doomben and was noy disgraced last time out. He is third up this weekend – he has not always performed well third up – but maybe with the tempo of the race he will get a sound run.

Macewen (4) is my roughie for the race - trained by Tony Gollan – who is flying! This runner has a wonderful record on this track with four wins from seven starts. I think with a month between runs, he will be cherry ripe to upset this lot. I think you can put a line through his past two starts – plenty of excuses. Last start at the Gold Coast in the Goldmarket he just did not get into the race and the run before that was on a heavy track – he is a duffer on wet surfaces. Ryan Maloney is riding, and he and Gollan have a tremendous strike rate when they combine.

Selections:

8 – Tumbler Ridge
5 – Bold Style
1 – Red Chase
4 – Macewen

Race 4 The Lightning (Listed)

Over 1000 metres – they will go fast.

Edmonds Racing on the Gold Coast has a solid chance with Usmanov (1) who won the Bat Out Of Hell on his home track when resuming – and won with some authority. Baylee Nothdurft will ride here again. The weight is the only concern I have with him. However, there is some solid speed in the race, and he will get a nice tow into the race.

I have had messages all week about the Chris Anderson Racing trained Boomtown Lass – all messages attempting to pressure me into tipping her! Well technically I am tipping her – there you go – just for the owners! She always races well fresh, and I see they have engaged Glen Boss to ride. Last weekend the stable landed a massive plunge when Profit was heavily backed to get the chocolates – I expect that will be the same action here this weekend. She is a very tough mare – she just seems to always get beaten in the final stride. To the owners here – if it is a photo finish – remember do not go the early crow – I will have the camera on you!

The race I think is between these two runners.

Snow Valley (8) from the Steele Ryan yards looks the only danger. Resumes here – goes well fresh and Kate Cowan will ride.

Selections:

1 – Usmanov
5 – Boomtown Lass
8 – Snow Valley
6 – Hail Manhattan
Rough chance – (10) The Candy Man

Race 5 Moreton Cup (Group 2)

Tough race here over 1200 metres.

Splintex (1) comes out of the Doomben 10 000 (Group 1) when he was working home late. Trainer Mark Newnham combines with Josh Parr this weekend to try win this Group 2 race. I have some concerns with this runner racing at Eagle Farm for the first time, but he runs up to the effort last start he will be difficult to beat here.

Varda (8) is from the James Cummings-Godolphin yard who is third up this weekend – she stormed home last start. She must step up to 1200 metres which she has struggled with in the past, however, the way she finished last start would suggest that she will now appreciate the longer distance – plus she shpuld be able to settle off the speed and race home strongly again – Kerrin McEvoy retains the ride.

The Astrologist (7) was hampered in running and had no luck last time out but still finished the race off strongly behind Varda (8). If he gets some luck this weekend, he could be the one to beat.

Baller (4) was a great winner last time out at the Gold Coast in the Goldmarket. Glen Boss remains aboard for Gollan Racing and there is no reason why he could not win this race – I cannot believe the ridiculous odds on offer $10.

Selections:

1 – Splintex
8 – Varda
7 – The Astrologist
4 – Baller
Rough chance – (3) Scallopini

Race 6

The first leg of the Quaddie over 1500 metres – looks a tough assignment for punters on paper.

Goldifox (9) goes around for new trainers Toby & Trent Edmonds. She gets back in her racing and needs luck in the running but she does finish strongly. If there is a leaders bias this weekend you will have to rule her out and back something else. Craig Williams has ridden this mare previously for a win and a placing – he knows her well and could get the best out of her this weekend.

Luvoir (7) is on the quick back up from last weekend. Steps up to 1500 metres from 1400 metres. That race looked a strong form race – Profit won. I think the race form will be strong in the coming weeks. Jim Byrne remains on board for Richard & Michael Freedman.

Then you have Anthony & Sam Freedman sending Groundswell (1) around. I expect this runner to lead with Nash Rawiller in the saddle. Not sure what to make of the last start effort in the Group 3 BRC Sprint. I just cannot see why there has been early market support for this runner and he is so short at $3.50 – I would be laying this runner all day.

East Asia (11) is trained by Robert Heathcote – I have had an opinion of her for a while. Last start she travelled to Gosford – they raced her forward and she weakened badly late. I think she is better ridden a few pairs back. She gets and ideal distance this weekend and I expect a bold showing from her this weekend. There is another added advantage with Kerrin McEvoy to ride – I think that at $21 she is great odds to cause an upset.

Itz Lily (13) is a Kris Lees Racing runner. Could be one at odds to cause an upset.

Selections:

9 – Goldifox
7 – Luvoir
11 – East Asia
1 – Groundswell
Rough chances – (13) Itz Lily

Race 7

Over the 1600 metres here for the first leg of the treble at weight for age.

Nudge (5) broke a long run of unlucky outs last start when she won the Pam O’Neill at Doomben over the mile. On that occasion she powered to the line and got the job done well. At set weights she looks well placed here by the Chris Waller Racing team.

Fabric (6), from the Danny O’Brien yards, had no luck in the straight three weeks ago at Doomben over the mile. She can seem to find trouble in her races – I just think on this larger surface Craig Williams should be able to get her wide and they might be good enough to get the job done at good odds.

Yamazaki (7) led last start – a strange riding tactic for mine. She is better ridden quiet (just my humble opinion) and let loose late. I think the tactics were adopted as there was some concern she would run out a strong mile, but I think now she may have proved that she will handle the mile. She is third up here this weekend for Matthew Dunn Racing and Hugh Bowman will ride her again.

Peter Moody comes to QLD with his runner In Good Health (4). Won last start at Morphettville and prior to that she was awesome in the Group 2 at the same track over the mile. She will be hard to beat here – Jim Byrne has the ride.

Rocha Clock (3) has resumed and won her past two starts for NSW trainer John O’Shea. Rachel King comes to QLD this weekend looking to leave her mark on the QLD Carnival and she rides this runner. She has a 100% strike rate on this mare – 3 rides – 3 wins. Again, she likes to settle back in the field and race with luck. If there is no one winning from behind she may struggle here.

Selections:

5 – Nudge
3 – Rocha Clock
6 – Fabric
7 – Yamazaki
Rough chances – (4) In Good Health

Race 8 Queensland Oaks (Group 1)

Over the 2200 metres here for the second leg of the treble – The Queensland Oaks at Group 1 level.

Chris Waller Racing has a huge representation – 6 runners of the 14.

I have been on this runner for a few weeks now – Signora Nera (10) who will be ridden by Opie Bosson again this weekend. Last start in The Roses she made amazing ground in the straight and then ran into a wall of horses in front of her and basically went to the line untested. I have been saying for weeks that she has been trained to the minute to win this race and last start – well that run was just superb. I hope that Bosson can pull her wide and she will do the rest this weekend in this feature race!

Grace and Harmony (6) is the stable mate. She was ridden back in the field as well last start in The Roses. That race is always a great sight for this race. James McDonald won the Group 1 Derby last weekend – can he get a unique double in QLD this by winning this feature race aboard her. She let down nicely at the Gold Coast two runs back and won the race easily. Last start she did not have a gut buster and will be ready to show up here.

Only Words (4) won The Roses with Craig Williams in the saddle. He got off this runner and was genuinely excited about her prospects this weekend. Out of all the Chris Waller runners she is the one that will race closest in the running this weekend – she gets the chance to win this if there is any track bias.

Duais (1) is trained by Edward Cummings in NSW. She ran second in the ATC Oaks (Group 1) last time out and that effort would suggest that she is a genuine contender here. On that run you know that this filly will stay and will be strong on the line – Hugh Bowman to ride.

Bargain (3) is a Mark Newnham runner. This filly ran third in the ATC Oaks (Group 1) and then came out flying home late in The Roses. She has had a solid hit out prior to this Grand Final and could be the one to win – Josh Parr looks for another Group 1 winner.

Selections:

10 – Signora Nera
6 – Grace and Harmony
3 – Bargain
1 – Duais
Rough chance – (4) Only Words (8) Charms Star

Race 9

I am wondering if Rocketing By (1) may have a dramatic reversal of form this weekend with the blinkers going on for the first time. Now trained by Matthew Dunn – Nash Rawiller will ride him here. He may just be the one to cause an upset in this last race at $9.

Georgie’s Pride (12) has won her past three starts here at this track. Desleigh Forster and Jim Byrne combine again this weekend. Barrier 13 is some concern – however, in saying tha,t she should get across well and take up the running. If leaders start winning she in the one to be on.

Kisukano (11) won last start at Doomben – was given the run of the race by Kerrin McEvoy on that occasion. Mark Du Plessis goes back aboard this weekend. She does love Eagle Farm and now she is back in the winner’s stalls she may just go on with it here.

Fleet Dove (14) is from Kelly Schweida Racing – likes Eagle Farm and comes off a midweek win last start. I think that she could cause a major upset here in the last race at around $16. Rachel King has been booked to ride by the stable.

Streaka (9) was supported at huge odds first up and ran a gallant second for Chris Anderson – Glen Boss remains aboard.

Mass Destruction (3) likes Eagle Farm and may show up at odds.

Selections:

12 – Georgie’s Pride
11 – Kisukano
1 – Rocketing By
14 – Fleet Dove
Rough chances – (3) Mass Destruction (9) Streaka
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Jockey’s Challenge

Tough field this weekend – Kerrin McEvoy and Craig Williams have some nice rides. Maybe have something on Craig – he has been in consistent form in recent weeks.

Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)

5,9,10 / 1,4,5,8 / 1,5,8 / 1,4,7,8 - cost is $144 to $1

Value Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)

5,9 / 5,8 / 1,5 / 1,7,8 - cost is $24 to $1

Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

1,7,9,11 / 3,4,5,6,7 / 1,3,6,10 / 1,11,12,14 - cost is $320 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)

7,9,11 / 3,5,6 / 3,6,10 / 1,11,12 - cost is $81 to $1

Treble (races 7 to 9)

3,4,5,6,7 / 1,3,6,10 /1,11,12,14 - cost is $80 to $1

WINNO V FLEMO

FLEMO got WINNO last weekend in a close contest in our tipping competition. Be sure to check out Facebook on Saturday morning with our updated tips where I will post our selections and any late mail!

By the way, we all know State of Origin is on next Wednesday – it is a disgrace that it being played in Townsville – talk about hometown advantage for QLD!

My tip is NSW by 8 points – hopefully, I will get bragging rights next week!

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