THE CUP - THE INTERNATIONAL CHALLENGE

By Graham Potter | Monday, November 2, 2009

It’s the one dilemma that punters have had to deal with on an annual basis for the last eighteen years and they have seldom got it right. The question is, just how good are the international raiders vying for Melbourne Cup glory?

Overseas runners have topped the betting boards in seven of the last fifteen Cups. The best of them have started as second favourite on another four occasions - for no winning return other than that glorious, emotional moment when a grieving Damien Oliver drove the Dermot Weld trained Media Puzzle to a famous victory in 2002 in a race record time of 3-16.97.

Weld, who had paved the wave for international aspirations by winning the 1993 running with Vintage Crop, does not have a runner this year. Neither does Aidan O’Brien. Invariably when either of these two trainers makes the trip their runners are deemed to be competitive and have betting support.

With that lead missing for punters, coupled with the poor overall record of the internationals in the race and wounds that are still fresh after the spectacular and failure of the Aiden O’Brien trained trio of Septimus, Alessandro Volta and Honolulu last year, it is hardly surprising that there is less betting interest in the foreign contingent this year.

That doesn’t mean they provide any less of a dilemma.

Mourilyan already brings a touch of controversy to the race due to the fact he is owned by Chechen ruler Ramzan Kadyrov, whose human rights record is questionable. That political question aside, the Herman Brown trained six-year-old is a seasoned traveller having raced in England, Dubai, Hong Kong, Ireland and Singapore in an eighteen race career which includes two second placed finishes in as many starts over the Melbourne Cup distance (3200m).

In his last prep Mourilyan ran second behind Schiaparelli in the Goodwood Cup. The winner flattered that form by going on to run third in the Irish St Leger before winning in Italy and finishing second in France, both in Group 1 company. Mourilyan won his last start (at the end of August) over 2800m at Goodwood. Mourilyan has definite claims without being an outstanding contender.

The mighty Godolphin machine sends out Crime Scene as their sole representative in their tenth assault on the Cup. Crime Scene was originally touted as the Godoplin second choice behind the highly-rated Kirklees. With the latter coming out after trainer Saheed Bin Suroor was not satisfied with his progress, Crime Scene’s role within the stable has been elevated.

Jockey Kerrin McEvoy keeps the ride as per the original plan. Frankie Dettori, who was to ride Kirklees stays at home.

Crime Scene has won eight out of twenty-eight starts. He has yet to race beyond 2460m. He does have the benefit of having had a warm-up run prior to the big race, having finished unplaced, two lengths behind Leica Ding in the Geelong Cup after being hampered at the start. The six-year-old would appear to need to lift his game if he is to have a say.

High profile trainer Luca Cumani has unfinished business in Melbourne. In the last two runnings of the Cup Cumani horses has finished second on both occasions - first with Purple Moon (behind Efficient in 2007)and then with Bauer (who failed by the proverbial nostril when beaten by Viewed last year).

Basaltico represents the Cumani interests this year. As with Bauer, Cumani sent Basaltico to the Geelong Cup before his Melbourne Cup assignment. He finished unplaced there (seventh, 4.50 lengths behind Leica Ding) when he had little luck in the running.

The downside is that Basaltico has not won for over a year. The upside is that Cumani has the record on the board to show that he knows how to handle the intricacies of bringing a horse from abroad and preparing him to fire on the big day. Chances are that fire-power won’t be enough to shoot down the opposition on this occasion, but the warning is there!

The Ian Williams trained Munsef is an eight-year-old. He won three out of five starts last prep and finished second in the races he did not win, but that form flatters him in this line-up. As if history wasn’t against him enough, the last eight-year-old to win the Cup was Catalogue who saluted in 1938.

Jockey Zac Purten flies in from Hong Kong to take the ride, so his connections obviously feel that to be a worthwhile exercise to give the gelding his best chance, but he has to be rated a long-shot.

Which leaves us with the two ‘blended’ international challengers, Warringah and Changingoftheguard. While all of the international runners will be ridden by Australian jockeys, these two runners are also officially now Australian trained with Warringah and Changingofthegurad lining up for Australian trainers Chris Waller and David Hayes respectively.

Of interest is the fact that they also have the services of Damien Oliver (on Warringah - who is the most experience Melbourne Cup rider in the race) and Glen Boss (on Changingoftheguard - who has the highest strike-rate of any rider in the race).

Form-wise, Warringah, who was formerly trained by Sir Michael Stout, is worth a second glance. The only time he has finished out of the first two placings in his last five starts was when run out of it late and pushed back into fifth placing (but still only a touch over a length behind the winner) in the Ebor over 2800m.

He had every reason to stop late as he was carrying 62kg that day. In the Cup Warringah drops right down to 52.5kg - the lightest weight he has carried in his career.

Changingoftheguard, who formerly with Aiden O’Brien, was second in the Ebor. He finished a length in front of Warringah but carried 5kg less than his rival. Changingoftheguard is now 3kg worse off at the weights with Warringah, which suggests the Oliver mount should be able to reverse that finishing order.

Boss did ride a three-year-old (So You Think) with only five previous starts to victory in the Cox Plate. There are certain similarities here with Changingoftheguard being the youngest horse in the race and the least experienced, having only raced on seven occasions.

In conclusion, the bottom line is the international visitors have earned the place in the line-up, but there is no stand-out grabbing attention. In previous years, because of the difficulty in lining up form across continents, foreign invaders have arguably been shown too much respect which most subsequent race outcomes showed they did not merit.

Given the past canings they have received, in particular from the Aidan O’Brien trained trio last year which is still fresh in everyone’s memory, punters are not taking that route this time.

Support for the international entries has been luke-warm. Come tomorrow, we will find out if we have been lulled into a false sense of security or if the internationals will again not be competitive enough this time around.

*Punters in the town of Mourilyan, which is located 8km south of Innisfail, can be expected to support the horse whose carries the same name as their town. That support might not affect the betting odds too much though. At the last census count Mourilyan had a population of 424.

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