THE CUP - IT’S NOT OVER YET FOR SADLER AND O’BRIEN

By Graham Potter | Monday, November 2, 2009

Two racing camps were hurt on Saturday, but the important thing to focus on is that trainers Danny O’Brien and John Sadler both still have runners in the Melbourne Cup which have to be treated with every respect.

Sadler, trainer for the powerful Lloyd Williams operation, had to accept a double blow on a day of drama on Saturday. Firstly, Efficient, the 2007 Cup winner, was scratched after failing to respond sufficiently to treatment on an old injury. Then Zipping came away ‘sore and sorry for himself’ after an incident in the barriers prior to the running of the McKinnon Stakes and he too was scratched from the Cup.

That was two strikes for the Sadler / Lloyd Williams team. But they are still batting. They have C’est La Guerre running in the Cup. They can still hit a home run.

O’Brien, for his part, threw the dice on Saturday and waited to see if they came down in favour of Vigor, who was one off a place in the field in the Order Of Entry, getting a run in the big race. They didn’t and Vigour was eliminated, but O’Brien still has the seasoned professional Master O’Reilly with which to stake a claim.

Both C’Est La Guerre and Master O’Reilly have already been tested in the Melbourne Cup cauldron. Both ran last year (Master O’Reilly also ran in the race 2007) where they finished third and fourth respectively. C’Est La Guerre crossed the line 2.10 lengths behind Viewed while Master O’Reilly was 2.50 lengths off the winner.

Twelve months is a long time in the life of a thoroughbred as horses move through different stages of their ability, but, for the record C’Est La Guerre is now 4kg better off with Viewed this time around. Irrespective of how well last year’s winner is travelling, an extra 4kg can be a steadying burden, particularly over 3200m.

This weight turnaround provides a positive factor, particularly as most pundits are using Viewed as the benchmark on which to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of others. The light does not shine so brightly when C’Est La Guerre’s current form is put under scrutiny.

The five-year-old has not won since saluting in the NZ Derby back in March 2008. That said, it must be acknowledged that he has been running against top class opposition in most of his outings since that win. Half of his twelve starts since then have been in Group 1 company, but that still doesn’t alter the fact that he has not gone on to achieve as much as he promised earlier in his career.

His chances would improve considerably on dead or slow going (where he is three from three), but otherwise he might only be shooting for a consolation prize.

Master O’Reilly is given even more hope at the weights than C‘Est La Guerre. He is now 5kg better off with Viewed compared to last year’s race and he can be expected to be running on at the death. The question is whether he can find the outright acceleration that will be required to upstage the better fancied runners.

The fact is his build-up this year has been quietly competent without being flash, and it is clear that O’Brien’s 2009 Melbourne Cup campaign could still well end with a smile.

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