THE CUP - THE NEW ZEALAND-BRED THREAT

By Graham Potter | Monday, November 2, 2009

It would be good for the Australian racing industry if the 2009 Melbourne Cup winner could be an Australian-bred runner, winning for an Australian trainer under the ride of an Australian jockey.

The percentage chance of completing that trifecta is not quite as open as it seems. The first point ... the Australian-bred aspect ... already puts up quite a hurdle in the way of that result.

The argument about the perceived movement away from the breeding of stayers in favour of turning out precocious, sprinting two-year-olds and the on-flowing lack of development of staying races and the promotion of that cause is another debate for another time.

It is however a sobering statistic to note that of the twenty-four stayers set to face the starter in the Cup, eleven were bred in New Zealand, four in Ireland and two in England ... ie a little more than seventy percent of the entries are overseas-bred. There’s got to be some lesson in there somewhere for breeders and investors, particularly when there is a $5.5 million carrot dangling at the end of the line or those to share in who get it right!

So New Zealand have the numbers. Do they have the talent? Here’s the run-through with the eleven New Zealand runners listed in the order in which they are preferred.

Master O’Reilly: Third attempt at the race. Finished fourth last year. Sound if unspectacular preparation. Seems to be flying a little bit under the radar. Beware!

Daffodil: Doesn’t really know how to run a bad race whatever the level of the opposition and it is unlikely she will suddenly change her colours here, so expect a cheeky showing. If she gets things made to order she could well go very close. A win would complete a major sporting comeback for jockey Chris Munce after his well-documented fall from grace in Hong Kong.

Roman Emperor: The AJC Derby winner. Finished second to Viewed in the Caulfield Cup last start. The package comes with the Bart Cummings touch. Slight distance doubt and ordinary strike-rate a concern but does represent quality. Gives jockey Hugh Bowman his first Cup ride. Must consider.

C’Est La Guerre: Third in this race last year. Has never shied away from top class, company but also has not saluted since March 2008. Capable if caught in a galloping mood. At best in soft going.

Fiumicino: Tough as teak campaigner. Another better with the sting out of the ground. Looks a length or two off the best of them.

Kibbutz: Last run was his best in some time, particularly given that he nearly lost his jockey at the 1500m mark. Was easily beaten by Alocopop in the two starts prior to that. No reason to suggest he can reverse that result.

Zavite: Won her only start over 3200m (in the Adelaide Cup) which makes him only one of four runners (the other three being Viewed, Ista Kareem and Spin Around) in the field to have saluted over the Cup distance. Likes to lead. Tough ask to go all the way.

Ista Kareem: Needs a soft touch, going-wise, to give of his best. Is the most experienced runner in the line-up (with 66 starts). Unfortunately that experience comes with a bit of age. It will need a huge effort from a nine-year-old to take care of business here.

Capecover: Has had success at the track winning last year’s QE Stakes. Gets back. Could be better than recent form suggests, but that improvement would have to be taken on trust. The $101 odds are there to tempt you.

Harris Tweed: Finished less half-a-length behind Roman Emperor at level weights in the AJC Derby. Has not fared as well as his rival since then as indicated in exaggerated terms by the current betting odds ($9 Roman Emperor; $151 Harris Tweed). Has plenty of ground to make up.

Gallions Reach: Connections paid up late entry fee to get into race. You have to take your chances if you have a qualified entry, but it looks to be too tough an assignment.


*The chances of the Irish and English bred horses are outlined in a separate article (see, The Cup – The International Challenge).

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