WINNO'S WINNERS: FLEMINGTON, MELBOURNE CUP DAY
By Darren Winningham | Monday, November 1, 2021
2021 MELBOURNE CUP DAY
FLEMINGTON RACES – TUESDAY 2 NOVEMBER 2021
2021 Melbourne Cup Day.
The track is rated “GOOD”. The rail is out 2.0 metres for the entire circuit. Some crowds are back – the weather looks like it will be a magic day – lights – cameras and action!
Race 1
Always a tough race to start the day with most of these two-year-old runners facing the starter for the first time. Watch any market moves on the morning and in the lead up to the race – the money usually tells the story in this race every year.
Water Bomber (10), to be ridden by Patrick Moloney, did put in a solid trial at Moe. I think that this effort would suggest that he could sprint well – barrier 11 is an advantage as well.
The Godolphin pair have both had a race start and look well placed here by James Cummings. I prefer the run of Lascars (2) in that start over the stable mate. In saying that Renosu (3) did flash home late in the debut at Caulfield. With some speed in this race – he could be the one storming home with Craig Williams aboard.
Selections:
10 – Water Bomber
2 – Lascars
1 – Brereton
3 – Renosu
Race 2
A distance race over 2800 metres – some of these wished that they had made the big dance.
I suppose the topical tip would have to be Good Idea (1) – not to have a bet in this race!
If you must have a bet, Ciaron Maher & David Eustace seem to have a good bunch of stayers rolling around now. Wil John (2) won last time out at Caulfield over 2400 metres after a series of wins over the jumps. Looks well placed and John Allen will leave nothing to chance in the final stages of the race if he is a winning chance with his strong, vigorous riding style.
Team Captain (6), trained by Matt Cumanim, is looking for a hat trick of wins after winning the Hamilton Cup. Blaike McDougall stays aboard and he would love to win a race on Cup Day 2021!
Selections:
8 – Wil John
6 – Team Captain
10 – Accountability
1 – Good Idea
Race 3
The first leg of the Early Quaddie as we have ten races today. The traditional race for grey horses and it is always a tremendous sight!
Housay (3) resumes here with Jye McNeil aboard. Normally races well fresh and does have a victory at the track and distance.
Naval Envoy (6) has had some races since resuming – all spaced around four weeks apart. This runner is trained by Danielle Loos and Craig “Froggy” Newitt will ride.
Standoff (7) has had four weeks between runs. Drops back from a Group 3 last start at Caulfield over 1200 metres to a restricted race. I think he is better suited here and is a genuine chance for Grant & Peter Dalziel with Dean Yendall to ride.
Selections:
3 – Housay
7 – Standoff
6 – Naval Envoy
4 – Excelman
Race 4
A 1800 metre race here.
Charleise (4) comes out of the Brisbane Winter Racing Carnival – trained in Melbourne by the Maher & Eustace team. She has been running in some quality races in NSW since she has resumed. Back to Victoria and this distance - she looks very well placed and another nice ride for Jye McNeil.
Skyman (6), a Chris Waller Racing runner who has been performing consistently. Back to this big track, after a solid effort last time out at Moonee Valley, he is a genuine contender here – Damien Thornton retains the ride.
Saltpeter (8) could rub salt into the wound if he gets up. He did turn in a wonderful effort on a heavy track last time out at Caulfield and $20 is a silly price for mine. He does have solid form on dry tracks and Kerrin McEvoy should add some confidence to his winning chances here.
Selections:
4 – Charleise
6 – Skyman
8 – Saltpeter
7 – Lord Vladivostok
Race 5
1400 metres – these can be tough races to find the winner!
Blondeau (4) trained by Chris Waller Racing will have James McDonald aboard. He comes out of a sensational effort in the Silver Eagle. He is third up this start and looks like he can get the job done here on a tough day.
Pindaric (7) is trained in South Australia by Michael Hickmott. He resumed with a solid win at Morphettville and has a great second up record – Craig Williams is riding.
Frankie Pinot (11) has been the medium of good support here since the markets have been posted. Kerrin McEvoy rides for Tony & Calvin McEvoy. He raced well last time at Caulfield – but I do not think he is a genuine chance here.
Lackeen (9) resumes here for James Cummings and Godolphin – two solid trials under his belt in preparation for this first up run. Damien Oliver rides for the BLUE army.
Selections:
4 – Blondeau
7 – Pindaric
11 – Frankie Pinot
9 – Lackeen
Rough chance – (3) Fender
Race 6
Last leg of the Early Quaddie – I hope we are still alive – a sprint down the straight over 1000 metres.
The race before the one that stops the NATION!
Get your bets on early for the CUP – just in case the TAB crashes – or there is a power outage – or some other thing to spoil your day!
There have been multiple gear changes on the two favourites in this race – Profiteer (1) and Enthaar (4).
I like the chances of Enthaar (4) from the Maher & Eustace yards. The Norton bit goes on here. Jye McNeill to ride. She was sent out a short-priced favourite in the Blue Diamond (Group 1) – led them up and got run down. I just don’t think she is a genuine 1200 metres horse – back to 1000 metres now where she has won 2 from 2. I think she is good value here – GET ON!
Profiteer (1) will be partnered by James McDonald for the Mick Price and Michael Kent stables. Did run well in the Group 1 Moir at Moonee Valley and then backed up in the Blue Sapphire (Group 3) at Caulfield (when second up) and looked like he ran out of condition late. Probably will be suited back to the 1000 metres and will be somewhere late in the finish.
I must give one a chance at $151 – Mimosa (3). Trained by Clayton Douglas and to be ridden by Luke Currie. His only career win was here over the 1000 metres. Resumed with an average effort in the Roman Consul (Group 2) last time out. I think he will strip fitter here – some value for the exotics!
Super Thief (8) is trained by Ben and JD Hayes – has won two from two looks like he has some ability. Faces his toughest test of his career here, but his sectionals would suggest he is ready to dance on the big stage.
Selections:
4 – Enthaar
1 – Profiteer
8 – Super Thief
3 – Mimosas
Race 7 LEXUS 2021 MELBOURNE CUP
First leg of the Quaddie due to the ten races – and our feature race in Australia!
How good is the Maher & Eustace effort to have four runners in the field – they all have some chance as well.
I will start with the imported runner Spanish Mission (3) - rumour and innuendo surrounds this runner. Craig Williams rode him on Sunday and the vets took another look at him and said – NO ISSUES! I am just concerned that on a firm track and 3200 metres he may be found wanting – so leave him out of my top 4 – but he could run a race IF he has not missed any work.
Incentivise (2) will start favourite – a story for the ages if he can win this race. The QLDer trained by Steven Tregea – transferred to Peter Moody – the battler Brett Prebble who was struggling for rides until he threw his leg over this untapped talent – he looks the winner on paper – he is dour – he has an amazing sprint, and he can and will run this distance – just the weight is a little concern – but on what he has shown in his races he could slay this field!
I really like Persan (12) as the one to beat the favourite. Trained by Maher & Eustace – will be ridden by Luke Currie. I keep going back to his effort in the race in 2020 when he ran a gallant fifth in a race where it was not run to suit his style of racing. This race looks like the tempo will suit him. $35 on offer he could cause an upset for mine.
Pondus (15) is another runner – well weighted – did not qualify in 2020 and went back and raced in Europe and has come back this year and qualified for the race. Much respect for this runner trained by Robert Hickmott and part owned by the Williams clan – who seem to make a habit of winning this race. Rachel King rides for the team and she will be looking to ride a Melbourne Cup winner for the girls – yet another wonderful story – I am certain that the one day a year punter will warm to this runner as Rachel is on it – they could well be collecting a dividend as well!
The 2020 winner is Twilight Payment (1) comes back – a 8-year-old – not many at this age and with the topweight have won this race in its history. He has been in superb form in the lead up and has been set to defend his title in 2021 – trained to the minute by Joseph O’Brien and will be partnered again by Jye McNeill – wouldn’t it be wonderful to see them win consecutive Melbourne Cups!
The Chosen One (6) ran fourth in the 2020 Melbourne Cup. Sporadic form of late – but his run last year would suggest that he could peak on the big stage in 2021. Murray Baker and Andrew Forsman will be hoping that Damian Lane can give him an economical run-in transit and then unleash late in the straight!
The Maher & Eustace pair down the bottom here must be respected as well. Grand Promenade (16) and Floating Artist (22).
Grand Promenade (16) will be ridden by Kerrin McEvoy who knows how to win a Melbourne Cup. He has had a month between runs – I really like that he has had that time off since winning the Bart Cummings here over 2520 metres. He would have done a ton of work on the track to keep him fresh and ticking over – he could well be the fresh legs on the scene and cause a massive upset.
Floating Artist (22) is the stable mate. Will have the services of Teodore Nugent. He has been working away without winning races in the lead up to his grand finale. Nugent has been on him in his past four starts and has a wonderful record on the gelding with 4 rides – 2 wins – 1 second and 1 third. He stormed home late in the Moonee Valley Cup last time out – forget that run – had no luck and the track bias did not suit his style of racing. Look for him to settle – and IF he can see out the 3200 metres, he will be the one working home around ten wide in the Flemington straight. It would be great to see Nugent win this race.
Selections:
2 – Incentivise
12 – Persan
15 – Pondus
1 – Twilight Payment
Rough chances – (3) Spanish Mission (6) The Chosen One (16) Grand Promenade (22) Floating Artist
Race 8
First leg of the treble. A race over 1400 metres sponsored by the Hong Kong Jockey Club – oh how I would like to get permission to travel there in December for their International Races!
Promise of Success (11) is an NSW runner sent south for a hit and run mission by John O’Shea. The mare won well last time out at Randwick – great time and good sectionals – letting down late and winning easily. She does like to race back in the field, so if there is any bias in the track late in the program it may pay to change your selection. James McDonald has the ride.
Aidensfield (5) ran a solid third behind Colette in the Tristarc at Caulfield last time out. Colette came out and destroyed them on the weekend – that form is good enough for this race. The mare is trained by Ben and JD Hayes and Craig Williams retains the ride.
The stable mate is Excelida (7) who won two starts ago at the track and distance – Michael Dee will ride her here. This mare had no luck last time out at Geelong – in fact I would think that she resented the track and probably you can overlook that run. Has drawn nicely in barrier 1 – should get a cosy trail in behind the leaders.
Agreeable (6) won a midweek race at Caulfield over 1400 metres last start. Despite the huge odds on offer ($31) I think that she could run a bold race. Trained by Anthony & Sam Freedman – another nice chance for jockey Jye McNeil.
The topweight is not without a big chance either – La Mexicana (1). She is also trained by Anthony & Sam Freedman and will be partnered by Damian Lane. She rarely runs a bad race and seems to always find a placing. Last time out she was not suited by the tight turning Moonee Valley track in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes. She got too far back and really was never a chance in the race won by Jonker. I think back to Flemington and getting some cover she can come home late over this lot. She is a classy mare – keep safe.
Selections:
11 – Promise of Success
5 – Aidensfield
1 – La Mexicana
6 – Agreeable
Rough chances – (7) Excelida & (10) April Rain
Race 9
The second last race of the day over 1800.
I think it is a match race between Spirit of Gaylard (6) and Maracana (14) – I hope I am right!
Spirit of Gaylard (6) is trained by Mitchell Freedman and Jordan Childs will ride. This colt was out of his ground and looked to be in an impossible position at Moonee Valley last time out in the Vase (Group 2). At some stage he was held up at a vital point and had to be steadied before storming home late. Given the big track here and his last run I think he will be hard to hold out.
Maracana (14) comes out of the astute Danny O’Brien stables and Brett Prebble will take the ride. Raced on the same as Spirit of Gaylard (6) but in the Moonee Valley Classic (Group 2) over the mile. This filly was flying home late coming six deep and was beaten by 3 lengths. Stepping up in distance here should represent no troubles for her.
Ben and JD Hayes have a maiden in All So Clear (12) in the race, at good odds as well, that Luke Nolen will ride. I note that the blinkers are going on for the first time. This So You Think gelding worked home nicely in a mile at Caulfield last time. I think that the gear change should get him to race more generously. He may need a touch of luck from barrier 15 to find a place in the running and not get caught wide.
Villaden (7) is a Chris Waller Racing runner. He went around in the Moonee Valley Vase (Group 2) last time out as well. Was hampered at the 500 metres – lost all momentum and never recovered. Maybe on this bigger track and given a clear run by Damian Oliver he can upset these favoured runners.
Selections:
6 – Spirit of Gaylard
14 – Maracana
12 – All So Clear
7 – Villaden
Rough chance – (2) Blushing Tycoon
Race 10
The last race of the day over 1200 metres. I am hoping that our Quaddies and Trebles are alive going into this race!
This race could all come down to where the best running is – out wide or along the rails. In recent meetings they seem to be sticking to the inside or middle of the track – just with day two of racing on the surface – they may elect to go wide.
Godolphin and James Cummings saddle up Pandemic (6) – topical tip right – bloody COVID19 attacking our way of life – only 10,000 people at the track for Cup Day! The stable mate is Munitions (11) – both have genuine chances.
Pandemic (6), who will be ridden by James McDonald, is third up here and has put in two sterling efforts at Caulfield where some NSW horses seem to get on the wrong leg. Up the straight here and from barrier 17 – he may elect to go to the outside fence and give them a caning.
Meanwhile the stable mate Munitions (11) will be looking to fire a shot at the opposition with Damien Oliver to ride. He is first up here but has been primed with two good barrier trials. I think he is some value at $41.
Curran (10) is trained by Lyn Tolson & Leonie Proctor with Matthew Cartwright to continue his association with the gelding. Matthew has ridden him in all ten starts – 4 wins and 4 placings. He has a win here at Flemington and has drawn well in barrier 11. I expect him to get out in the markets as they come for other runners here and he could end up being some good value in this race.
Quantico (14) is the NSW runner – trained by John O’Shea and Kerrin McEvoy to ride – drawn barrier 1. I think he will want to get off the rails late and into the centre of the track. He has won his past two starts in emphatic style. Some good sectionals last time out would suggest that he can sit off the speed here and let down late.
Rubisaki (8) would be considered a straight six specialist with seven starts here – 3 wins and 3 seconds for trainer Patrick Payne. Billy Egan will ride and although I think her best chances would have been on a wet track, she certainly ticks a few boxes and has drawn well in barrier 13. She is second up here and she does race well fresh.
Selections:
10 – Curran
6 – Pandemic
14 – Quantico
8 – Rubisaki
Rough chance - (5) Express Pass & (11) Munitions
_____________________________________________________________________
Jockey’s Challenge
Tough field on CUP DAY – James McDonald and Jye McNeil have a nice book of rides. On my assessment it will be a dead heat! Maybe a slight leaning to Jye to get home here – but you can back both.
Early Quaddie (races 3 to 6)
3,6,7 / 4,6,7,8 / 4,7,9,11 /1,3,4,8 - cost is $192 to $1
Value Early Quaddie (races 3 to 6)
3,7 / 4,6,8 / 4,7,11 / 1,4 - cost is $36 to $1
Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
1,2,12,15,16,22 / 1,5,6,11 / 6,7,12,14 /6,8,10,11,14 - cost is $480 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 7 to 10)
1,2,12,15 / 1,5,11 / 6,14 / 6,10,14 - cost is $72 to $1
Treble (races 8 to 10)
1,5,6,11 / 6,7,12,14 / 6,8,10,11,14 - cost is $80 to $1
Value Treble (races 8 to 10)
1,5,11 / 6,14 / 6,10,14 - cost is $18 to $1
BIG 6 (races 5 to 10)
4,7 / 1,4 / 2,12 / 1,5,11 / 6,14 /6,10,14 - cost is $144 to $1
More articles
|