THE CUP - IT'S HARD TO GO PAST INCENTIVISE

By David Fowler | Monday, November 1, 2021

Is it a folly to think it’s a simple path to arrive at this year’s Melbourne Cup result?

I doubt it.

Incentivise provides a bulletproof case for victory and I’m a little surprised, and happy I might add, that he is now creeping out to $2.80 TAB fixed as I write this.

How much you put on is equivalent to the degree of faith you have in this monstering stayer … and his evolution might not have even reached its peak.

His ability to stalk, swoop and then demolish his rivals was clearly displayed in the Caulfield Cup, the beaten margins posted by several of rivals in the double figures.

The campaign is faultless, underlined by an extending picket fence of nine wins.

His jockey Brett Prebble has formed the an excellent association. There is little doubt he will ride him well.

The Melbourne Cup speed map is devoid of front runners. Incentivise is likely to slide across comfortably from barrier 16 and will be in the leading division, I’d suspect, within the first 600 metres.

Once the dust settles it should then be a matter of horse and jockey controlling affairs before they ramp it up from the 800 metres.

Incentivise should win.
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It’s hard not to think Spanish Mission won’t provide the quinella result.

One of three internationals, it’s been a bumpy ride that saw him miss the Caulfield Cup and then come under an injury cloud before the Melbourne Cup.

However, he has passed all vet checks and that second to the great Stradivarius in the Lonsdale Cup can’t be ignored.

The booking of Craig Williams is another tick.

Last year’s winner Twilight Payment must command respect and the argument can be made his form is as sound as it was leading into the 2020 version.

A good barrier, always important, ensures a good trip.
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Away from the top three, many will play multiples to ensure winning trifectas and first fours.

There is a long tail to this year’s Cup with several making up the numbers but Verry Elleegent, The Chosen One, Dephi, Tralee Rose and Great House can run in the first half dozen without surprising.

Traleee Rose would be the best of that group so she slots in fourth.

It’s an old-style Melbourne Cup which I’m sure so many will appreciate.

Good luck.

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