QUEENSLAND OAKS PREVIEW

By Graham Potter | Friday, May 29, 2009

Can a Maiden win the Queensland Oaks?

At first glance, the fact that Think Money has yet to strike in sixteen starts would normally push her claims down the ratings, but the runner-up finish in the AJC Oaks tells a different story and posts a warning that should be heeded.

Bart Cummings saddles Think Money. Anthony Cummings saddles Nothin’ Leica Cat. The family rivalry could come to the fore in the final chase to the line, although the likes of Purple and Ekstreme should be right there, pushing forward to try and claim a success of their own ... and, as ever, the list of possibilities does not end there.

There is no easy answer to the Queensland Oaks puzzle. Here are form comments of all the runners to help you make your selection.

PURPLE:
The Peter Snowden trained Purple gets a decent draw at last. While the barrier position is not of utmost importance over 2400m, a good draw will entitle Purple to make her own luck this time around.

Purple has won four out of five starts on soft or heavy going. She would have had that advantage if the Oaks was run last week, but any remaining give in the ground will help her out. Was comfortably beaten in her only start over 2400m (in the AJC Oaks), but the quality of the opposition is less intense here. She should run well and can be expected to contest the finish.

JUICE:
Juice also enjoys dead or slow going. Those conditions help her pick up her game. Her last two starts over this distance came in the NZ Derby (when six lengths behind Coniston Blue) and the NZ Oaks (when four lengths behind Jungle Rocket). She was well beaten in her warm-up run for this when finishing well down the field behind Awesome Planet in the Doomben Roses over 2020m.

While her form suggests she will come up a couple of lengths shy of a result here, Michael Rodd is a fair judge of a big race contender and he gives Juice a vote of confidence. Factor that in to your calculations.

AWESOME PLANET:
Awesome Planet made an early move in the home straight and then stayed on just long enough to salute in the Doomben Roses last time over 2020m. The longer trip should not be a problem if she is held up longer for a run, so she should again have every chance. She will come under more pressure than she did last time though so her resolve will be tested. The better the going, the more her chances will improve.

SEESAWING:
For the fifth time in a row Seesawing pushes the envelope in terms of distance. Her gradual build-up from 1200m to 2400m in this sequence of runs has been carefully orchestrated. Blended into that schedule was also a progressive step p min class through Listed to Group 3 and now Group 1 company, so she should be well prepared for this assignment.

Weighed against that is the fact that she has continued to lack a finishing effort of note, a trait which could again leave her struggling at the business end of affairs. Shane Scriven will get the best out of her, but that might not be enough.

THINK MONEY:
Think Money is still a Maiden after sixteen starts, but don’t be misled by that status. She put in an enormous run when finishing second to Daffodil in the AJC Oaks and a repeat of that effort will be enough to get her safely home here. She also looked right on the mark when finishing just 2.25 lengths back in the Doomben Roses in her lead-in race in her only start since the AJC Oaks.

The downside is that horses learn how to win, and the question is whether the penny has dropped yet with this daughter of Danehill Dancer. She has the experience of Michael Cahill in the saddle to guide her and, last, but not least, Bart Cummings prepares her. She will deserve every consideration.

EKSTREME:
Ekstreme was the runner chasing Awesome Planet down in the Doomben Roses and she had the likes of Purple, Juice and Think Money, as well as several other contenders here, behind her that day. She comes into consideration on that basis alone.

Add in the fact that she won two out of her last three starts in New Zealand prior to her Doomben Roses run, and take into account her only defeat in that sequence of runs came when only 3.40 lengths back in the NZ Oaks, and she has further obvious claims.

She should go well.

LA BELLA LUISA:
La Bella Luisa looked a touch short of class last time in the Doomben Roses and she could suffer the same fate here. She has been game and honest before that, showing to fair advantage in successive Listed races, but the impression persists that she will come up a few lengths short of what is required to win here.

CAN’T KEEPER DOWN:
Can’t Keeper Down’s runner-up finish, 0.40 lengths behind Jungle Rocket in the NZ Oaks over this distance is the run by which she should be measured. She seldom runs a bad race and therefore seems sure to make her presence felt. The question is whether whether she has the artillery to fire back at the big guns here.

She enjoyed a comfortable warm-up win over 1550m at the start of the month before coming across to Australia. She would certainly not be winning out of turn.

A LITTLE KNOWLEDGE:
Poor form. Little chance.

REZYANA:
Rezyana produced a game and eye-catching effort last week when chasing home behind Rockdale in spirited fashion in the Rough Habit over 2020m. The extra ground should suit her. She is at home on any going.

The query is whether that hard chase in heavy going has taken anything out of her which might be exposed in the quick back up. Also, she was beaten by Prix Du Sang in her penultimate start and she meets that rival on the same weight terms here, so should struggle to reverse that result.

She looks more a place prospect than a winning one.

NOTHIN’ LEICA CAT:
Nothin’ Leica Cat finished fourth in the AJC Oaks, coming in 2.50 lengths behind the second placed Think Money. Has had two runs in Queensland since then in a solid enough build up to this race, her last win being little more than a track-work gallop at the Gold Coast.

Expect this one to come out fighting.

RIVER PERFUME:
Should be comfortably held here.

RETURNTOSENDER:
Returntosender did well enough in the Doomben Roses to be well worth a second glance here. She finished seventh, but was only 3.20 lengths off the winner Awesome Planet. It was the type of run that could easily slip under the radar, but the bleep is there and it appears to be moving in the right direction.

The extra ground will test her, but that scenario applies to a number of her rivals.

Her trainer knows what it takes to win one of these. He saddled last year’s winner Riva San, who then went on to complete the Oaks/Derby double.

GRACESYND:
Looks up against it.

PRIX DU SANG:
Prix Du Sang is another who you would have liked to do a little more in the Doomben Roses, yet, at the same time, she did enough to make her difficult to discard.

Clearly, she will have to pick up her game to have a major say in the outcome, but she does seem to have the potential to be able to do so.

This one needs to be handled with care.

WALK IN THE PARK:
Yet to run a bad race, but this is clearly her biggest test to date. Larry Cassidy has ridden her before (in a Listed) race and he is happy enough to get back on her here.

She should be found wanting in this line-up.

LACINDA SIREN:
Lacinda Siren has been showing to fair advantage in recent starts but has tended to lack a knockout punch. Might do enough to give them a scare but her low strike-rate suggests she won’t be able to finish the job.

ROYAL EXCESS:
Royal Excess is better than her recent form suggests, but it will take a leap of faith to put the money down. Hard to recommend.

DESIRE TO WIN:
Poor form. Little chance.

FINAL SELECTION: 1 Nothin’Leica Cat; 2 Ekstreme, Think Money; Purple;

SUGGESTED BIG RACE TRIFECTA:
Percentages of that can be taken as suits the pocket.

Purple, Think Money, Ekstreme, Nothin’Leica Cat – to win!

Purple, Think Money, Ekstreme, Nothin’Leica Cat, Can’t Keeper Down – for second placing.

Purple, Juice, Awesome Planet, Think Money, Ekstreme, Nothin’Leica Cat, Can’t Keeper Down, Returntosender and Prix Du Sang – for third placing.