A CHRIS WALLER TRAINED LONG SHOT IN THE TWO-YEAR-OLD CLASSIC - COULD IT BE UPSET MATERIAL?

By Graham Potter | Thursday, January 19, 2023

What would you suppose the odds are on a $2 million Magic Millions Two-Year-Old Classic runner trained by Chris Waller, the country’s leading trainer, and ridden by Jimmy Orman, Queensland’s leading jockey?

Try $51.

Of course, prices are set largely on the basis of the actual assessment of each horse’s form by the analysts and Chrysaor, the horse in question, only has one win at the Sunshine Coast to his credit from three starts, which might justifiably seem to be a couple of lengths off the pace being set by the more fancied runners.

But $51.

The fact that Chrysaor only just scraped into the final field will also have something to do with the long odds about his chances as some of the main contenders had staked their claims relatively early on and their presence was already entrenched in the punter’s psyche.

It is perhaps worth noting though that the win at the Sunshine Coast came when Chrysaor raced second-up ... as he will do in the Magic Millions Classic ... and it was over the 1200m, the Magic Millions Classic distance.

In his first-up run this time in, Chrysaor finished fourth in the Group 3 Bruce McLachlan Stakes, 2.20 lengths behind the winner The Novelist, who remains unbeaten with two wins from two starts.

That result means Chrysaor is one of only five horses in the Magic Millions Classic field to have officially raced in Group company ... along with Empire Of Japan, Platinum Jubilee, Miss Coota and Excel D’Or.

Maybe that’s drawing a long bow to make the case for Chrysaor ... but, we are talking two-year-olds here, where vast improvement can appear overnight.

The case being made is not about trying to label Chrysaor as an outright winner. The case being made is a simple one of querying the odds about his chances.

“I think he is over the odds,” said Jimmy Orman with a shrug.

Orman has ridden the son of Better Than Ready in all of his three starts to date.

“He’ll improve on his first-up run,” continued Orman. “He’ll get back off the speed (Chrysaor will jump from barrier thirteen) and hit the line.

“The track conditions will play its part. I’d like to get it to soft conditions ... I’d actually like it to be Good 4, if it could ... but it is what it is. You can’t do anything about the weather.

“I don’t think it will worry Chrysaor too much.

“Big races ... you never know. If the track stays in the heavy range, it might actually suit a roughie like Chrysaor, because some of the better chances might not get through it,” concluded Orman, with a nice touch of mischievous optimism.

*Chris Waller won the Magic Millions Two-Year-Old Classic with Shaquero in 2021 ... at double figure odds of $13. Alpine Edge and Shaquero’s stable-mate, She’s All Class, the race favourite, finished second and third respectively. Shaquero came into that race as one time winner from three starts ... as is the case with Chrysaor.

$13 is a far cry from $51, but the message arguably remains the same.

Underestimate a Chris Waller trained long-shot at your own peril.

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