WILL STRADBROKE FORM HOLD UP IN THE TATTS TIARA?

By Graham Potter | Friday, June 23, 2023

Palaisipan, Ruthless Dame and Chain Of Lightning, who finished fourth, fifth and sixth respectively in the Stradbroke, will all take up another Group 1 challenge in the Tatts Tiara at Eagle Farm on Saturday.

Only a little over a quarter of a length separated these three runners in the Stradbroke as they all came home within two-and-a-half lengths of the winner, the very smart Think About It.

So, can that form stand up on Saturday? Let’s have a closer look at their respective Stradbroke performances.

The Chris Munce trained Palaisipan, who started at $91, led this trio home under Kyle Wilson-Taylor. By the same sire as Think About It, the son of So You Think jumped well, held his position just off the speed and, while not setting the track alight, was solid to the line, in spite of wanted to hang slightly and having to shift ground marginally off the heels of the second placed Rothfire over the concluding strides. He was still hitting the line and there were plenty of pass marks ticked in his overall effort.

The Ciaron Maher and David Eustace trained Ruthless Dame, who started at $12 in the Stradbroke, went back at the start and raced towards the rear of the field, all the while saving ground, until she was asked to quicken early in the home straight at which stage the three-year-old began to make up ground steadily along the rail. She did have to mark time briefly inside the 200m before being able to switch out around the tiring, early leader Gentleman Roy, before running on well again between the 150m and 50m mark where she arguably peaked on her run.

The Peter Moody trained Chain Of Lightning raced up with the speed but was held three to four wide throughout. The mare cornered within two lengths of the lead, perfectly positioned with a clear run to the line. She remained fully in contention until the eventual winner Think About It breezed past her with 200m left to run. She kicked on reasonably after that and held fourth place with 100m left to run but Palaisipan and Ruthless Dame both finished better, pushing the Moody trained runner back to sixth place.

In summary, bearing in mind these three runners similar wights in the Stradbroke … Palaisipan and Chain Of Lightning carried 52kg, Ruthless Dame carried 52.5g … perhaps it was the roughie of the trio who turned in the best performance … not because Palaisipan beat the other two home, but because his was the more sustained performance, working early, holding his effort, and staying on at the line.

For her part, Ruthless Dame did give Palaisipan and Chain Of Lightning a useful head start of five to six lengths and she did close ground on them smartly in the home straight. She was fully entitled to do that as had done less work in the first half of the race and covered less ground … staying on the rail throughout … than her two rivals. Did get right up to Palaisipan before the latter edged away again in the closing stages.

Chain Of Lighting was bold from start to finish when given a testing run. Did more work than her two rivals and still finished virtually right alongside them.
So, on that assessment, we are still left looking for a reason which separates these runners.

Shift to the Tatts Tiara and it looks like we have found one with the weight turnaround favouring Ruthless Dame.

From carrying 0.5kg more than Palaisipan and Chain Of Lightning in the Stradbroke, Ruthless Dame will now carry 1.5kg less than those two runners under the Weight-For-Age conditions of the Tatts Tiara … and a 2kg advantage in a contest as close as this should be worth its weight in gold.

But … the barrier draw is a complicating factor with Ruthless Dame drawing the car park with number 19 (she could come in three if the emergency acceptors fall away).
Palaisipan is not much better off in barrier sixteen while the pendulum here swings more in favour of Chain Of Lightning who is drawn barrier nine.

The conclusion … yes, that Stradbroke form can stand up on Saturday, and if you give any one of these three runners a chance, you have got to respect the other two.

The betting boards have a different story with Ruthless Dame being marked up as a strong second favourite at $4.80 … behind the ruling $3.40 favourite Opal Ridge … while Chain Of Lightning is at double figure odds of $12 and Palaisipan, despite the warning he posted in the Stradbroke, even easier to back at $17.

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