WINNO'S WINNERS: GRAFTON, JULY 9, 2023
By Darren Winningham | Saturday, July 8, 2023
This Sunday we head to GRAFTON for the second day of the 2023 GRAFTON CARNIVAL.
It is the traditional GRAFTON TOYOTA SOUTH GRAFTON CUP Day. The track rate is rated ‘Soft’ and the rail is out 3 metres for the entire circuit. The Club always puts on an amazing program and there are plenty of off-track activities over the Carnival to keep you busy.
Race 1
A maiden to start the day.
The Astronomer (6) is trained by Stephen Lee and Bubba Tilley will be making the long drive from Brisbane to partner this gelding for his race debut. The trials have been reasonable enough to suggest that he could run well here.
Light Up the Dawn (9), trained by Jack Brown, has been racing well around the QLD country tracks. Maybe can improve on this large open racetrack – Nozi Tomizawa will ride.
Russian Inn (11) is trained here by Greg Kilner – Jason Taylor will ride. She has had a few runs without setting the world on fire, but could be huge odds to upset these more favoured runners.
Selections:
6 – The Astronomer
9 –Light Up The Dawn
11 – Russian Inn
4 – Roxnoral
Race 2
This is a race over 1006 metres – Class 1 – a massive field.
Tanglewood (1) looks the bet of the day for me – despite the huge weight of 61 kilograms. Last start winner at Taree in slashing style – demolishing the opposition by 5.5 lengths. Aaron Bullock will ride him again for trainer Todd Howlett. Looks too good for these.
Huss On First (5) is trained locally by John Shelton – he always seems to win many races over the Carnival. Ben Looker will ride. Resumes for the new stable after a 21 week freshen up. She is only a lightly raced mare and her form previously in QLD was solid enough to imply that she will be competitive here. Look for any market moves – when the Shelton stable loads up – they normally win!
Bochkareva (6) is trained by Edmonds Racing on the Gold Coast. Bailey Wheeler comes to Grafton after riding at Randwick on Saturday for the first time. He will be full of confidence. The mare resumes here after a 14-week spell – the blinkers go on for the first time. Her trials have been great as well in the lead up to this race.
Supidoman (7) resumed at Ballina last time out for Stephen Lee – looked the winner until the final few strides where he ran into a better one on the day. Looks like he will strip fitter and be competitive here. Rockhampton Cup winning rider Bubba Tilley will ride.
Selections:
1 – Tanglewood
5 – Huss On First
6 – Bochkareva
7 – Supidoman
Race 3
A maiden over 1410 metres.
Stephen Lee has a strong contingent of runners at Grafton today, including yet another one –who resumed at Ballina over 1300 metres and flashed home late - Revontulet (13). I think that the longer straight here will mean that she can wind up and overpower them when the judge calls a halt to the race. She has a consistent career record – 5 starts – 4 placings. I just hope she can break her maiden status here.
Bendolirra (2) is trained by Daniel Want and Jodi Worley will ride. Is third up here – ran well last time out at Murwillumbah when he ran into a nice type. Back onto the large Grafton track – look for an improved effort.
Enterprise Success (5) is another runner for local trainer John Shelton – Tegan Harrison will ride. Last time out at Coffs Harbour appeared to hit the wall at the 100-metre mark after jumping cleanly and leading them up. I think we can forgive that run as he was only on a ten day back up – maybe this was the issue. He has had nearly a three week break between that run and this assignment – keep safe and look for any market support.
Selections:
13 – Revontulet
2 – Bendolirra
5– Enterprise Success
6 – Heavenly Scent
Race 4
Tough way to end the early Quaddie with another maiden over 1410 metres.
Boulanger (2) is trained by Daiki Chujo and an apprentice I have a wrap on – Zac Wadick - will ride and claim 2 kilograms. Last time out at Lismore Boulanger got too far back and when he was asked to go met with some interference. I think that this longer straight and wider track should help ensure a win.
Friars Destiny (5) will be ridden by Tegan Harrison again for John Shelton. The blinkers go on for the first time – this may be a telling factor. The last time out at Ballina he raced in a very slow-paced race and just worked home nice. There are different circumstances here with some solid tempo in the race – should get a nice trail into the race ... and the additional distance should be right up his alley.
Son of Heroic (7) is trained by Darren Graham – Ben Looker is aboard. The blinkers go on and the winkers off. Did well enough last time out at Lismore when fourth. The gear change may assist in a change of fortunes.
Alcoota Angel (9) is trained here by Scott Henley – she may be one that likes wet tracks, but still should not be overlooked. Bailey Wheeler will ride.
Selections:
2 – Boulanger
5 – Friars Destiny
7 – Son Of Heroic
9 – Alcoota Angel
Rough chances – (12) Monazel
Race 5
First leg of the Quaddie. Class 1 and maiden over 2220 metres – can these races get any harder!
Collection Point (2) is trained by Lee Freedman on the Gold Coast with Jake Bayliss (dirty QLDer) coming to my turf to ride the gelding! He is only lightly raced and led them up last start at Eagle Farm. He normally doesn’t lead, and I think the tactics adopted on that occasion cost him the race. Look for him to be two pairs back in the running and handy throughout – then he should just outstay the opposition.
Highness (4) is trained by Bjorn Baker in Sydney. Made his debut for the new stable and first run in Australia and ran last at a midweek meeting at Gosford. On that effort you could not consider him here – however, there has been a constant flow of money for this runner since the markets have opened – keep this runner safe – Aaron Bullock will ride.
World Atlas (12) likes to lead. John Sprague trains and Zac Wadick will ride him again after a daring front riding run last time out at Coffs Harbour over 2000 metres where he was run down in the shadow of the post.
Brave Boy (1) is trained by Christos Zintillis and Jackson Morris has been booked to ride. This runner was not suited by the tight turning Kilcoy track in his last run over 2076 metres. He got way too far back and when he started to make his run he was on the turn and entering the very short straight. He is a likely improver here with a larger straight and track to assist him.
Dontkickamoocow (5) won a maiden last time out at Kilcoy for trainer Taryn Churchill. Raced close to the speed and powered away late for a solid win – Jason Taylor rides here.
Selections:
2 – Collection Point
4 – Highness
12 – World Atlas
1 – Brave Boy
Rough chance – (5) Dontkickamoocow
Race 6
The first leg of the treble. A race over 1610 metres.
Claptone (4) is trained by Julie Lynch and Mikayla Weir will ride. Last start winner at Coffs Harbour over the mile suggests that he may post back-to-back wins. Drew wide on that occasion and worked across nicely to take a sit in behind the speed before powering away for a solid win.
Full Press (1) is trained by Brett Dodson and will be ridden by Lachlan Scorse, who will claim 4 kilograms. Does have some solid form at the mile with 3 wins and 3 placings from 10 starts. Has won on this track as well – could be a nice chance at each way odds despite the huge weight.
Rebel’s Edge (7) was heavily supported last time out at Scone on a four-day quick back up from his previous start. He is trained by Cassandra Stummer and Aaron Bullock retains the ride. He will run the distance right out – just will need some luck late.
Sue Grills trains Mr Severino (6) – she won a race last week on the first day of the Carnival – looking for another win with this runner. Ashley Morgan will ride – they do have a good strike rate when they pair up. This gelding led them up at Scone and was run down late – was sent out at huge odds on that occasion at around $21. Look for a bold effort here – probably will be ridden back I would think in this race.
This race is difficult – it may pay to see if there are any betting moves late for any of these runners.
Selections:
4 – Claptone
7 – Rebels Edge
6 – Mr Severino
1 – Full Press
Rough chance – (3) Franklin Corners
Race 7 2023 GRAFTON TOYOTA SOUTH GRAFTON CUP
The second last race and the feature race of Day 2. The winner also gets a free entry into the BIG DANCE that will take place at Randwick later in the year with a massive amount of prize money on offer!
Space Tracker (7) is from the Annabel Neasham yards. Only lightly raced three-year-old who is a newcomer to Australia and his new stables. He has had two starts now for the new stable and in each start has been heavily supported and starter favourite – to be fair on paper he has looked disappointing in both runs. I think the mile suits him – Ben Looker will ride – and he is down in the weights – there is plenty to like about him here.
Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott won this race last year with Surf Dancer. They are looking to defend their titles with Too Much Caviar (8). I don’t think I will find any caviar in Grafton if this one wins to help me celebrate! This runner resumed at Randwick over 1400 metres and ran a bold race. He has a tremendous second up record and Amy Lucas, who I think will have her first ride at Grafton and will look to win a feature race! I think that at $14 – he is wonderful each way value.
Cepheus (1) is trained by Matthew Dunn Racing. Has been racing very consistently over the Winter Carnival in QLD. A super run last time out in the Listed Glasshouse over 1400 metres. He loves running a mile and despite the huge weight will be right in this when the whips are cracking – Aaron Bullock will ride.
Cotehele (4) resumed in the Civic Stakes at Randwick over 1400 metres and just seemed to run out of fitness late. Trained by John O’Shea he will be ridden by Tom Sherry – who has an impressive strike rate aboard the gelding. Second up is no problem – just have never won over the mile. Has won at 1500 metres and the way he gets back in the field and storms home late would suggest the Grafton track will suit him.
Kapsali (13) is probably the best roughie in the race. Trained by Brett Dodson and Jon Grisedale will ride. He loves this track – he loves the mile – second up after an impressive run in the Wingham Cup at Taree when first up over 1614 metres. He does go up in grade – but down in the weights. He could beat these more seasoned and fancied runners.
Selections:
8 – Too Much Caviar
7 – Space Tracker
1 – Cepheus
4 – Cotehele
Rough chances – (13) Kapsali
Race 8
The last race of this big day of racing. Class 3 over 1410 metres.
Another large field to face the starter.
Agirlsbestfriend (6) is trained by Marc Quinn and Luke “Sausage” Rolls will be in the saddle. Resumed at Randwick in a Highway – got barrelled at the start and then had no luck in running. Back in class to country grade, despite the first up effort I expect her to get back into the winner’s stalls – solid price $8 as well – something each way.
Alamira (2) is an Annabel Neasham runner who has been racing in QLD. Last time out raced in a midweek race at Doomben and finished behind Pocket Full. Pocket Full raised at Doomben on Saturday and was narrowly beaten in a photo – solid form out of that race. I think the extra distance will assist her chances here – Cejay Graham will be in the saddle.
Wonderwhen (3) is trained here by Daniel Want and Jodi Worley rides. The mare is second up. Resumed at Beaudesert over 1200 metres and went to the line hard held as she was boxed up and could not get a crack at them late. She has drawn barrier 2 and should get the run of the race.
Milingimbi (8) will be ridden by Jake Bayliss. Trained by Brett Cavanough, she has drawn terribly in barrier 19. She raced close to the speed last time out at Lismore when she won over 1310 metres. That win was solid – she always jumps cleanly – just not too sure where she ends up in this race from the wide barrier. On her last start win she must be kept in your calculations.
Fire Up Bruce (11) is trained by John Shelton with Tegan Harrison aboard - may be a rough chance.
Selections:
6 – Agirlsbestfriend
2 – Alamira
3 – Wonderwhen
8 – Milingimbi
Rough chances – (11) Fire Up Bruce
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Jockey’s Challenge
I think this is an open affair this weekend – Bubba Tilley, Aaron Bullock and Ben Looker all have some nice rides. I am going for a dead heat between Ben and Aaron.
Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4)
6,9,11 / 1,5,6 / 2,5,13 / 2,5,7 - cost is $81 to $1
Value Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4)
6,9 / 1,5 / 2,13 / 2,5,7 - cost is $24 to $1
Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
1,2,4,12 / 4,6,7 / 1,4,7,8 / 2,3,6,8 - cost is $192 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 5 to 8)
2,4 / 4,6 / 1,7,8 / 2,3,6 - cost is $36 to $1
Treble (races 6 to 8)
4,6,7 / 1,4,7,8 / 2,3,6,8 - cost is $48 to $1
BIG 6 (races 3 to 8)
2,13 / 2,5 / 2,4 / 4,7 / 7,8 / 2,3,6 - cost is $96 to $1
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