STRADBROKE PREVIEW
By Graham Potter | Friday, June 5, 2009
There has already been a fair amount of off-the-track drama surrounding this year’s Stradbroke Handicap. A jockey dispute, the shock withdrawal of the pre-race favourite All Silent with trainer Graeme Begg citing the condition of the track as being ‘unacceptable’ ... doubtless, the running of the race itself will provide more cause for debate.
Twenty runners have stood their ground. One will emerge victorious and take home the biggest prize in Queensland racing.
Form commentary for all twenty Stradbroke runners.
MARASCO: The combination of a heavy track and top weight has buckled many a top performer. He has the class to hold his own to a degree, but that might be as good as it gets. He has to give weight to some fair runners while chasing over ground which does not favour his cause. Will thus find it difficult to assert himself and he is likely to play only a bit part in proceedings
DANLEIGH: Clearly disappointed last time in heavy going. Whether he was slightly off song on that occasion, or whether the underfoot conditions restricted his progress is the key decision. If the latter, he should do no better this time around. If that does not apply and it was just a minor form hiccup, a return to his best form will place him right in the mix. Maybe he deserves the benefit of the doubt.
SWICK: He is not at best in the soft but, according to his trainer, ‘he is learning to cope with it.’ Those could be ominous words considering the source. The fact that he has only had one run in the last three months is not the ideal prep. Has surprised before though. May be hard pressed to do so again, but the precedent is there.
SNIPER’S BULLET: Very wide draw does him no favours, but he is a seasoned enough campaigner to be able to overcome that disadvantage. Has performed admirably this prep, coming up just a couple of lengths shy of quality performers at level weights in his last two Group 1’s. Seems sure to be right there inside the last 150m, but may again just lack the kick required to strike the lead. Strong place chance.
BLACK PIRANHA: Could face a dilemma from the ‘good’ barrier. Will need to hold his position to not be crowded out yet is at his best when unleashing a strong, sustained run from behind. Runner-up last three Group 1’s when leaving a number of good runners in his wake. If he has a kind passage early on and can avoid traffic problems at the head of straight, he could take a power of beating.
BANK ROBBER: Missed the kick slightly and was never a factor last time in heavy going. Is best as an on-pace runner so should have little option but to go forward from his poor draw. Has shown he possesses the stamina to cope with more ground, which this trip will seem like in the going, but, in terms of the speed at which the race is expected to be run, the competition looks too strong for him to be able to do it at both ends. Can give some cheek, but should succumb to pressure in the final chase to the line. Dangerous if allowed to dictate.
SOLO FLYER: Interesting runner. Drawn in the middle of the pack. Has the speed to pick a prime spot and has the ability to be able to launch a telling challenge when asked for his effort. Finished second as a beaten favourite last time when cut down by the late burst of Rampant Lion over 1615m. Drop back in distance could be a plus. Heavy going is a minus. Rates a value option.
ABSOLUT GLAM: Clearly not her best result last time which might have had as much to do with the strong quality of the opposition as it did with the heavy underfoot conditions. Better before that when resuming. Will strip fitter for the two runs this prep but the impression persists that she could still be short of a cutting edge performance.
EMPIRES CHOICE: A former Queensland Derby winner who has only has two runs since that success in 2007. Won on soft going that day, but the lack of action in the last two years and the fact that he races over a distance well short of his best stack the odds against him. Reunites the Melbourne Cup winning team of Bart Cummings and Blake Shinn. They have scored a high profile upset before. It is
unlikely this time.
ROYAL DISCRETION: Drawn wide, right next to his stable companion Bank Robber, who the stable jockey prefers. He has been very effective over this trip and has shown to good advantage on slow going. Those two factors alone make him worth a second glance. The draw dents the enthusiasm, but he is a fighter. Waterhouse has yet to win a feature race this carnival. Could she have been waiting for the biggest race of all?
COURT COMMAND: Made headlines when returning from a twelve month sortie at stud to win the BTC Sprint over this big race distance. Nowhere near as effective in heavy going last time but that was against the likes of Apache Cat at levels weights so that result might not be as bad as it first appears. Still, this looks a tough ask.
HARD TO CATCH: You can’t go any closer without winning it. That was how close this smart chestnut got to winning this race last year. Gave notice that he is ready to rumble again with a solid third placed finish behind Court Command in the BTC Sprint last time out, where he had all of Royal Discretion, Mr Baritone, Barlinnie and Rightfully Yours behind him on the day. He is not finished yet but the combination of the heavy going and an awkward draw could KO his chance of winning.
MR BARITONE: Last year’s winner defending his crown. Has followed a similar route to the big race that he took last year. He has turned in an absolutely solid preparation which augers well for a strong showing here. He handles soft going. He has a handy galloping weight and he jumps from an ideal barrier. All he needs is a big race jockey to guide him through the minefield – and he has that as well. He will have every chance of completing the double.
SOMETHING ANYTHING: Scored an impressive sequence of wins before being spelled at the end of last year. Did a good job when resuming. He was never dangerous there but finished close-up enough behind Duporth over 1200m. Stepped up to 1350m second-up and failed to catch the eye. Will prefer this distance even though it is only marginally more ground than he got last time but will need to lift his game to have a major say. Upset material.
BARLINNIE: The most telling statistic is that he is unbeaten in four starts when racing second-up. He races second-up here. The downside is that on each occasion he has won second-up, he has shown to good advantage in the run before. This time he did not. He also has to contend with the worst of the draw. Should get back and it seems unlikely he will find the acceleration in the straight that will required to give them a scare here.
RIGHTFULLY YOURS: Lost the Prime Minister’s Cup to Mr Hornblower on protest and ran into some interference of his own in his next start when unplaced, but running on in the BTC Sprint. He has plenty to recommend his chances statistic-wise. He won his only start on heavy going. He has won four out of seven over this distance and his overall strike-rate suggests he knows how to finish off when he gets a sniff of victory. The argument against him is that at this stage he might just be short of the class required to see off the best of the opposition here. Note that Craig Newitt doesn’t ride for Mick Price. He is on Jungle Ruler.
JUNGLE RULER: Only ordinary last two - one in good going, one in heavy going. Looks in under sufferance here. Should struggle.
MR SLICK: Seems to be caught in no-man’s land at the moment. He is often too good for his rivals in the lower divisions and he has yet to prove he is good enough to trade blows with the best of the opposition at this level. Could be hard pressed to make his presence felt.
VOCALIC: Won his last two against markedly weaker opposition than he faces here. Looks out of his depth here.
ORTENSIA: Boom filly bidding for her place in history. No horse has ever won the QTC Cup / Stradbroke double. This race has always been her long-term aim in an extended preparation. She was good enough to make the field in trying circumstances last week. The worry is how much that run might have taken out of her. Wide draw will give her followers some anxious moments and the slow to heavy going will trouble her. Her class has carried her through this far though. Obvious claims, but faces equally obvious difficulties.
FINAL SELECTION: 1 Black Piranha; 2 Mr Baritone; 3 Solo Flyer; 4 Danleigh.
SUGGESTED BIG RACE TRIFECTA:
Percentages of that can be taken as suits the pocket.
Danleigh, Black Piranha, Solo Flyer, Mr Baritone - to win!
Danleigh, Black Piranha, Solo Flyer, Mr Baritone, Ortensia - for second placing.
Danleigh, Sniper’s Bullet, Black Piranha, Royal Discretion, Solo Flyer, Hard To Catch, Mr Baritone, Rightfully Yours, Ortensia - for third placing.
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