BTC CUP PREVIEW - MIC MAC TO EDGE OUT MELITO AND ORTENSIA
By Graham Potter | Friday, May 14, 2010
Group 1 racing comes to Brisbane for the next five weeks and first out of the stalls will be the twelve-strong field which will line up for the BTC Cup, a $400000 event contested under standard Weight-For-Age terms over 1200m at Doomben on Saturday.
The Tony Noonan trained Ortensia justifiably tops the betting boards, but no Group 1 is a ‘gimme’ and there are factors beyond the quality of her opposition that Ortensia will have to overcome if she is to complete a hat-trick of wins following her impressive successes in the Group 2 Winterbottom (at Ascot over 1200m in the last start of her previous preparation) and in the Group 1 Galaxy (when resuming over 1100m at Randwick on April 17).
The tempo of the race is one tactical factor that stable brains-trust will have to evaluate. There are a host of runners capable of setting the target, but will they go fast enough early to set up the race Ortensia whose racing pattern is best suited to a true pace where her rider can exercise his judgement before unlashing Ortensia’s telling, race-winning turn of foot?
Watching the ‘good thing’ Wealth Princess, who finished second behind Lord Tavistock in a Group 1 Waikato Sprint in her previous start, come unstuck in a far lower grade race run at a farcical pace at Coloundra last Sunday is a recent example of how pace can upset form if contingency plans are not made by those most at risk to being ambushed.
Wealth Princess beat King Mufhasa back into third place in the Waikato Sprint and it is the latter who will carry New Zealand hopes in the big race on Saturday ... and he is likely to carry them to the lead early as he is expected to go forward from his extreme outside draw.
King Mufhasa is well enough credentialed to be treated with absolute respect. He is a three-time Group 1 winner in New Zealand although, perhaps significantly, only one of those wins came over 1200m (in the Telegraph Handicap). His other two successes at the top level were over 1400m (in the 2009 Waikato Sprint) and over 1600m (in the Fairdale Classic).
Chances are he might just be looking for a touch further than he is getting he is getting here and be short of acceleration when placed under pressure in the home straight but, then again, he is currently in the care of Trevor McKee, of Sunline fame, who knows a thing or two about preparing horses for big races.
While King Mufhasa will face a big test in the straight, he is also not likely to be left alone in the first half of the race. Monton will have to defend his position from the number one barrier while Sister Madly and Shellscrape, the two runners drawn immediately inside King Mufhasa in unfavourable barrier positions can also be expected to chase forward in search of gaining prominent early placing.
Of these runners, Monton is in fine form. The last time he jumped from the number one barrier he made every use of that advantage to win the Group 2 Hobartville Stakes over 1400m when keeping Shoot Out Back in second place. Shoot Out got his revenge in their next meeting when beating Monton, who on that occasion had to chase from the wide fifteen barrier, by 1.80 lengths in the Randwick Guineas over 1600m.
Sister Madly will be having her third start in her second preparation. The highlight of her first prep was when she ran second to More Joyous in the Group 1 Flight Stakes over 1600 which stamped her as having loads of potential. Sister Madly then finished third behind Irish Lights in the Group 1 One Thousand Guineas before being spelled for nearly five months.
Sister Madly resumed and had two runs in March finishing second behind Majestic Music in the Group 2 Yallambee Classic and third behind Rostova in the Group 1 Sportingbet Classic. Both races were at Morphetville. Both races were over 1200m and both outings served as a useful preparation for the task at hand.
Shellscrape was back to his best last time in the Group 1 Galaxy. The tongue-tie came off after two uncharacteristic lack-lustre efforts and he threatened to snatch the cash before being gunned down late by the smooth running Ortensia. Shellscrape received 3kg from Ortensia in the Galaxy. He only receives 0.5kg here. That unfavourable turnaround at the weights clearly underlines the difficulty of the task facing Shellscrape but, of the leading pack, he just might be the one kicking on best of all early in the straight.
The leading horses are likely to be tracked early on by some serious contenders sitting just off the pace or in midfield, biding their time before making their play for glory.
Mic Mac, Melito, Set For Fame and Russeting might jostle for position in semi-congested galloping room until the turn where luck in the running will, as ever, play its part on who will get first run in the straight.
Of these four runners Set For Fame runs for the all-conquering Peter Moody stable and she has Luke Nolan aboard who rode the 2009 BTC Cup winner Duporth. The filly has a good record over 1200m (where she has two wins from three starts) but arguably she will prefer more ground at this stage, which could count against her in this competitive line-up.
Russeting resumes here after a seven month layoff. The mare’s form was only ordinary in the limited two runs she has had this season and it would be quite a training feat is she were to emerge with winning form first-up. The trainer’s name by the way is Bart Cummings.
The other two runners in this group, Mic Mac and Melito, deserve special attention. If they can get a break on the swoopers they could well run down the early leaders and settle down to fight out the finish.
Mic Mac, who until now has done all of his racing for trainer Greg Eurell, has his first start for trainer Paul Messara and it could be he who ranges up to Shellscrape with Melito in hot pursuit inside the final furlong.
Mic Mac has been beaten by Mileto in their last two clashes. Mileto finished 2.10 lengths ahead of Mic Mac last time out in the Group 1 All Aged over 1400m but, perhaps more significantly, less than a length separated them when Melito triumphed in the Group 1 TJ Smith over the BTC Cup distance in their penultimate start.
There could again be very little between them and the result could in fact lie in their hands if they have the commitment to fight off the challenges that are sure to come from off the speed.
The final group, the one that is likely to have it all to do when the field straightens for home is Ortensia, Ghetto Blaster, Albert The Fat and Latin News.
If these runners were writing the script they would get back off a true pace, engage a higher gear early in the straight and accelerate into contention before hitting the line hard.
The speed of the race is a variable which looks likely to confuse the issue for these runners. If the speed is too slow and they accept the pace they are all likely to be out-sprinted in the straight. If that scenario is in play, it will be interesting to see which jockey nerve holds longest and which jockey is first to try to force the issue and inject some speed into the contest.
All of these runners have the constitution to run on strongly from behind, but that pattern presupposes that they will either need luck in the running or have to be able to switch out wide into clear running and have the ability to outgun their rivals while covering more ground some of the other contenders.
Ghetto Blaster has won six out of thirteen starts over 1200m, but he has yet to win in four goes over the Doomben 1200m, a statistic which suggests the track does not entirely suit him. Albert The Fat may well end up the widest runner in the straight as he is at his best when allowed to run his own race. He should be running on, but the chances are he might have been left with too much to do in the run home. Latin News, likewise, is likely to show some cheek when he starts to quicken, but there is a question mark against whether he has the fire-power to finish the job.
Which bring us back to Ortensia, the best credentialed chaser in the pack and arguably the best horse in the race.
Taking the entire possible race scenario as described above through to its conclusion, the prediction is that Mic Mac and Melito will take the measure of Shellscrape inside the final 250m with Ortensia unleashing a strong run from behind to race into contention.
Mic Mac and Melito will continue to fight out a stride for stride battle to the line with Ortensia closing up quickly from behind. On the line Mic Mac puts his head down to earn his Group 1 from the game Melito with Ortensia arriving just a stride too late leaving her having to settle for third place.
TRIFECTA SELECTION:
2 Mic Mac, 8 Ortensia and 10 Melito (for first place).
2 Mic Mac, 5 Shellscrape, 8 Ortensia and 10 Melito (for second place).
1 King Mufhasa, 2 Mic Mac, 4 Albert The Fat, 5 Shellscrape, 6 Monton, 8 Ortensia 10 Melito 11 Set For Fame, 12 Sister Madly (for third place).
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