IPSWICH CUP PREVIEW

By Graham Potter | Friday, June 12, 2009

Like any gambler, you have to play the cards you are dealt.

When trainer Danny O’Brien nominated the likes of Ballack, Absolut Glam and Keano for the Ipswich Cup meeting and then didn’t accept, the downward spiral in class from the menu that has been on offer to punters in recent weeks was complete. It was always going to be that way – you don’t go from a multiple Group race card to a Listed feature without feeling the effect - but that doesn’t make the selection poser any easier.

Here are form pointers for all runners in the Ipswich Cup to help with your selection process.

SPHENOPHYTA:
Won this race in 2006. That was a big year for him. He won the Turnbull Stakes and finished fifth in the Caulfield Cup, but then the problems started. He was as good as tailed off in the McKinnon. He only raced twice in 2007. He didn’t have a single race in 2008. He was then understandably keen when fresh first-up after twenty month layoff but has not been as convincing in Group company in two subsequent starts. Drops in class here and gets longer trip. Both factors will be in his favour. Shane Scriven, when commenting on his carnival so far, said, you never know what is around the corner. Scriven rides this one. We’ll know soon enough.

VELOCE BELLA:
Jim Byrne, who won the 2006 Cup on Sphenophyta takes the ride here. Her Doomben Cup effort, when less than five lengths off Scenic Shot was a sound enough effort in the context of this race. Was nowhere near as competitive in her follow-up run in slow going. Should get close enough to threaten here. Must consider.

BORNINTHESTATES:
Needed more ground than he got last time. He has been giving several opportunities over a variety of distances in recent times and he is clearly struggling to make progress at this stage. Chances are he will again have to settle for a minor role.

FAST FUTURE:
The run in the Chairman’s was encouraging. The run in the O’Shea wasn’t. The latter was on slow going. He is much better on a good or a dead track and, with the sunshine this week, his chances should improve accordingly. The draw should be a minor inconvenience but he is well suited to this distance and has an experienced rider in the saddle to guide his path. Expect to go well.

I’M ISAAC:
Only ordinary last two in heavy going. Better conditions will see him finish closer. Finished a neck behind Tinseltown (who finished third in the Brisbane Cup last Saturday) at level weights three runs back which is a fair recommendation. Stable is in fine form, both in Queensland and at home. He is certainly not out of it. This is one who needs to be handled with care.

OBVIOUS CHOICE:
Won two starts over 2400m at the end of his last prep. Completed the hat-trick when resuming over 1300m in April. Was then struck down with the ‘second run syndrome’ but immediately bounced back with a win in the Listed Scone Cup. Confirmed her current well-being with a second placing behind Soiled in the Edward Williams two weeks ago which was an ideal lead-in to this contest. High strike-rate confirms his above average ability. Will have every chance.

MACKNUCKLE:
Game effort when third to Reggie from a wide gate in heavy going in the Premier’s Cup. Won both the Wagga Cup Prelude and the Wagga Cup in successive starts before that so form is clearly heading in the right direction. Was scratched from the Brisbane Cup last week. Should be cherry-ripe. Expect a bold showing.

IMVULA:
Ran three successive seconds at the end of his last prep and has been a touch in-and-out this time around which could suggest he is not always committed to the cause. On his best showing he should be right in the mix. The question is whether he will arrive with his ‘A’ game. Dangerous, but difficult to recommend with any confidence.

QUEEN OF QUEENS:
Another who often flatters to deceive. Will get there one day and make all of the doubters pay but the onus is on her to find something extra in the finish to turnaround her fortunes. The nature of this race could provide the stage for her to bounce back but it will still take a leap of faith to put the money down.

NELLIE GOT THERE:
Always game. Tries more ground after tending to feel the pinch in the finish in recent starts over less ground. Should again run an honest race but will need more than that to have a major say. Likely to have to settle for a minor role.

OUR LUKAS:
Ultra-consistent this prep in a sequence of races where bad barriers often compromised his chances. Step up in distance should suit and he rates well on any going. Seems sure to make his presence felt when the field is asked to quicken. Will have every chance. Watch.

REZONE:
Has struggled in all three starts since resuming. Clearly will have benefitted from that match practise but the over-riding impression is that he should have shown more by now if he was going to be seriously competitive here.

CAPE BRETON:
Could be lying in ambush here, ready to surprise the best of them here. Was only 0.30 lengths behind MacKnuckle last time and they meet on the same weight terms, which suggests there should again be little between those two runners at the line. Macknuckle is rated a good chance. Cape Breton must rate just below that, which means he is in with a shout.

JUJULIO:
Often looms large halfway up the straight but then only finishes on the heels of the place-getters. Would certainly not be winning out of turn were he to carry through with the threat one day. It’s all a question of timing as to in which race you place your bet.

TABULATE: Inconsistent. Won as he should have in weak company to post some warning last time. More to do. Rates more as a place prospect than a winning one.

FINAL SELECTION: 1 Veloce Bella; 2 MacKnuckle; 3 Fast Future; 4 Obvious Choice

SUGGESTED BIG RACE TRIFECTA:
Percentages of that can be taken as suits the pocket.

Veloce Bella, MacKnuckle, Fast Future, Obvious Choice – to win!

Veloce Bella, MacKnuckle, Fast Future, I’m Isaac, Obvious Choice– for second placing.

Sphenophyta, Veloce Bella, MacKnuckle, Fast Future, I’m Isaac, Obvious Choice, Imvula, Our Lukas, Cape Breton – for third placing.