WINNO'S WINNERS: EAGLE FARM, JUNE 1, 2024
By Darren Winningham | Thursday, May 30, 2024
EAGLE FARM this week - Featuring the Group 1 – Kingsford Smith Stakes and the Queensland Derby. The track rated 'Soft'. The rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
It is the first day of Winter and they are forecasting rain in the lead up to the meeting – but they have been wrong for the last month now – so let’s hope they stuff up again!
Game 1 in State of Origin is almost upon us as well. There are a few QLDers trying to stir me up. But NSW win the series 2-1 and in Game 1 NSW will win 22 – 14!
NB: As these selections were made prior to race-day, please check for any changes to track conditions and for any scratchings on the day.
Race 1
A BM85 race here – over 1600 metres.
I like a runner down in the weights here trained by Tony Gollan – Sunset Soiree (16). Angela Jones will ride the mare drawn perfectly in barrier 5. I thought her last start effort at Doomben was eye-catching. Now she is third up in this preparation I think we should see the best of her this weekend.
Tenzing (7) is the stablemate. Comes off a last start win at Doomben over the mile. Tyler Schiller will ride again - he was very strong going to the line at Doomben and a repeat of that performance will see him somewhere in the finish.
The topweight is trained by Bjorn Baker and comes off a quality race at Newcastle where he got too far back but stormed home to run a gallant fourth on a track that didn't suit him. Despite being topweight Hollywood Hero (1) looks ideally placed in these conditions. I see Jason Collett has been booked for the ride - he always seems to ride a winner when he comes to QLD.
Poison Chalice (5), as his name suggests, may leave a bitter taste in the bookmaker’s mouths and bags if he gets the chocolates in the race. This runner is a visitor from Victoria trained by Paul Pruesker and Michael Dee will ride. Dee comes off a winning double last weekend – riding in great form. The horse is second up here after resuming over 1200 metres at Flemington and running a gallant race. That race was at Listed level, and he drops back in grade sharply here – he is the pre-post favourite and has been backed since the markets opened. He is best performed over the mile, so he gets the perfect distance to show his best.
Tojaki (8) is trained by Stuart Kendrick and raced on a bog heavy track at Sunshine Coast last time out over 1400 metres. He was forced to race wide however never gave up at any stage throughout the race - again a gallant effort. I have a question mark over him racing a solid mile – he may just need one more run to top him off.
Selections:
16 – Sunset Soiree
1 – Hollywood Hero
8 – Tojaki
5 – Poison Chalice
Rough chance – (7) Tenzing
Race 2
A BM78 class race over 1400 metres.
Bjorn Baker has an emergency here – Fairway Star (20) with Rachel King to ride. She has drawn poorly in barrier 19 – but there is some speed here that should string them out and hopefully she can get in and get a nice run. She is second up here after a nice effort at Scone over 1300 metres. She really had no luck in the straight on that occasion.
Warby (10) is trained by Gollan Racing – Blake Shinn will ride. He drew wide last time and had to race wide throughout. Maybe with some luck here from the wide barrier he can post a win.
Blakmax (22) is the stablemate who has drawn barrier 24 – will need some luck and is an emergency. But it is definitely an each-way chance. Ryan Maloney will ride.
Crazy Train (11) is trained by Matthew Dunn. She didn’t handle the heavy track last time at Sunshine Coast – so best to go on the previous run when he was third here over 1200 metres. He will be better suited here – Adam Hyeronimus will ride.
Geriatrix (12) is trained in New Zealand by Lance O’Sullivan and Andrew Scott and Michael Dee will ride. Makes debut in QLD here – some patchy form in New Zealand – I will want to see him go around first before hopping on.
Selections:
20 – Fairway Star
10 – Warby
11 – Crazy Train
12 – Geriatrix
Rough chance – (22) Blakmax
Race 3 Premier’s Cup – Group 3
A Group 3 race over 2400 metres.
Selino (3) is from Chris Waller Racing with Nash Rawiller. Last start he raced in the Group 1 Sydney Cup and that wasn’t a bad effort. There are a few things against him here including being an eight-year-old who has not won in 50 weeks. I just think that he goes well here on this track – in fact his last win was here nearly 12 months ago in the Group 2 Brisbane Cup. That may be his grand final again this year – so I would expect a bold effort.
Hezashocka (6) is trained by the Price and Kent team with Jamie Kah booked to ride. Solid effort last time out in the Group 1 Doomben Cup. He did win the Listed Gosford Cup on a bog heavy track and, in fact, all his wins have been in heavy and soft going – so I would expect the stable are doing rain dances to get more rain to enhance his chances. They can keep backing him as favourite – but if the rain doesn’t make the track heavy – I don’t think he can win!
Goldman (5) is trained by Waterhouse & Bott with Regan Bayliss in the saddle. He has raced on two heavy tracks since resuming. I think he will be better on top of the ground – if he gets a firm surface at Eagle Farm, look for a sharp improvement. Third up here – distance is perfect – he looks a genuine threat.
King Frankel (7) and Spirit Ridge (1) are from the Annabel Neasham yards. You must respect these runners as the recent distance winners in QLD in these feature races have all been trained by this stable. They just seem to thrive this time of the year.
Selections:
3 – Selino
5 – Goldman
6 – Hezashocka
7 – King Frankel
Rough chance – (1) Spirit Ridge
Race 4 LORD MAYOR’S CUP – GROUP 3
Group 3 class race over 1800 metres. This is a tough race to assess – so many form lines to analyse.
I think the Scone Cup form may be valuable here. With that in mind the John O’Shea trained Lion’s Roar (5) has drawn well with Tyler Schiller aboard. He is third up here and went back at Scone and worked home solidly to snatch third. He always seems to race towards the rear, so he will need some luck in the straight.
Converge (10) is trained by Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott – a proven Group 1 performer who has just been out of luck. He hasn’t won in 112 weeks – in saying that he has found trouble in his past few starts. At Scone he got caught on the inside and went to the line hard held – at no stage was he tested late. He is second up here – Tim Clark will ride. I am hoping for a massive form reversal at massive odds!
Shock Em Over (15) smashed the opposition when he resumed at Caulfield over 1400 metres. He is second up here for trainer Alex Rae and Craig Williams is in the saddle. He has won up to 2000 metres so the distance will be no drama. His second up form is solid – looks ideally placed to post his first black type win.
Waterford (12) is trained by Chris Waller Racing has Jimmy Orman aboard. He hit the front in the Listed Scone Cup over the mile and got beaten in the shadows of the post. He seems to struggle past 1500 metres but in this grade, with the weight, he will be competitive.
Adelaide River (3) is a new runner to Australia – first run for Kris Lees Racing. Has won at Group 3 level in Europe and has performed well at Group 1 and Group 2 levels. He has been gelded and a cross over nose roll goes on. Dylan Gibbons will ride for his master – could be a special moment if he can win this race.
Selections:
5 – Lion’s Roar
10 – Converge
15 – Shock Em Over
12 – Waterford
Rough chance – (3) Adelaide River & (2) Just Folk
Race 5 SIRE’S PRODUCE STAKES – GROUP 2
This is a two-year-old race over 1400 metres at Group 2 level.
Godolphin and James Cummings have a nice runner here – Broadsiding (1) – Jamie Kah to ride – however, he has drawn the Brisbane airport’s second runway in barrier 21. The colt has won his past two starts. The last win was in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes at Randwick over a mile. Whatever he does this weekend, he will be improve on.
Bittercreek (2) was a solid winner in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doomben (1200m) in his last appearance. He raced handy throughout and went to the line with plenty more to offer. Blake Shinn will ride again for Leon & Troy Corstens. This gelding has thrived since being in QLD and looks well placed again.
Althoff (4), trained by Chis Waller, did win at the Sunshine Coast over 1200 metres at his second race start. That was at Group 3 level. That win was on a heavy track – but I think this one looks quite progressive and may be too good for them the longer these races get – Nash Rawiller rides him here.
I have gone for an upset with the local filly trained by Kelly Schweida Racing – El Morzillo (16). Craig Williams will be riding. She was super last time out in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doomben (1200m). She settled midfield and then in the straight made a barn storming run just to miss the eventual winner Bittercreek (2). Her final 600 metres time was sensational – I really think with the barrier draw – barrier 4 - she is the one to beat.
Selections:
16 – El Morzillo
2 – Bittercreek
4 – Althoff
1 – Broadsiding
Rough chance – (12) Angel Capital
Race 6 FRED BEST CLASSIC – Group 3
First leg of the Quaddie. A three-year-old race over 1400 metres at Group 3 level.
This is another open field – plenty of chances!
The James Cummings (Godolphin) pair look well placed – Corniche (4) and Amur (5).
Corniche (4) bolted in last start at the Sunshine Coast Group 3 Gold Coast Guineas. His final sectionals were amazing! Craig Williams will ride him here. If he turns up and puts in another effort like that, he will be super difficult to defeat. He does seem to go better on rain affected ground – let’s hope the Eagle Farm surface is not too firm for him to show his true potential.
Amur (5) won at huge odds last time - $41. They have missed him again this week in the markets for mine posting him at $31 again. Jimmy Orman will ride him again. He was gelded prior to his last start – then the pace of the race was solid, and it permitted him to settle and then make a huge run down the outside to swamp them late at Doomben over 1350 metres.
Schwarz (7) is a NSW runner trained by John O’Shea who won the Group 3 Hawkesbury Guineas at his last start – over a month ago. He is only lightly raced with six starts for three career wins. Jamie Kah will hop aboard him here. The stable has a huge opinion of this runner, and he looks very progressive. He had a solid barrier trial a fortnight ago where he won in good fashion – he is right up to winning this race and then look for more glory in the upcoming Carnival. Barrier 5 is great as he likes to race up on the speed.
Stefi Magnetica (17) was an eye-catching effort in the Doomben 10,000 (Group 1) – you could not have missed the run! She settled near the rear of the field and then attempted to get a clear passage in the straight where she ran into trouble and got on the heels of the runners. The filly is trained by Bjorn Baker who should come to town this weekend and be at Eagle Farm – Tommy Berry will ride her. She has been heavily backed into favourite since the markets opened. Drawn barrier 2, if she jumps cleanly watch for Berry to sit in behind the speed and have her best placed to strike late.
Cifrado (1) is trained by Rex Lipp who celebrated his birthday on Wednesday. Maybe a late birthday present in a Group race! This colt did nothing wrong when a gallant second to Corniche (4) at the Sunshine Coast over 1200 metres. I firmly believe that he is best suited at 1400 metres. He gets that distance and a track where he thrives on this weekend. Add in Michael Rodd to ride and things look promising for this runner. I am wondering how he is $21 in some markets.
McHale (19) has the addition of blinkers this weekend for Chris Waller Racing. He seemed to be flat at his last start over 1350 metres at Doomben in the race won by Amur (5). He was heavily supported, and they left their money in the bookie’s bags. Tyler Schiller will ride – he is an emergency, however, may get a run – keep safe.
Moravia (13) is not without a rough chance either.
To be fair if Stefi Magnetica (17) does not finish in the top 4 you will need a truck to get your winnings home.
So, play wide here with your exotics for a possible massive result.
Selections:
4 – Corniche
17 – Stefi Magnetica
7 – Schwarz
5 – Amur
Rough chance – (1) Cifrado & (13) Moravia & (19) McHale
Race 7 EVA AIR KINGSFORD SMITH CUP – GROUP 1
First leg of the Treble – Group 1 race over 1300 metres.
The first of our feature races on the program.
I think the interstate raiders have a mortgage on the race. Magic Time (11) is trained by Grahame Begg and Michael Dee will continue his winning association with her. She won the Group 1 All Aged at Randwick on a heavy track six weeks ago. A freshen up since then and a solid barrier trial on the Gold Coast ten days ago, she looks rock hard fit leading into this race. An impressive first up record as well – she is good value at around the $7 mark.
In Secret (10) could give the Godolphin team and James Cummings a big day. She resumes after a 29-week spell where she previously raced in the Group 1 VRC Stakes at Flemington and was narrowly defeated by Imperatriz. That form is solid for a race like this. Then you look at her Group 1 record – 6 starts – 2 wins and 3 placings and never out of a place in four first up efforts. The barrier is great as well – barrier 4 and Jamie Kah will ride. Great each way odds at $8.
I Wish I Win (1) seemed to peak on his last run in the Doomben 10000 (Group 1) when run down in the shadows of the post by Bella Nipotina (9). Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman have made some gear changes for this run with the blinkers going on and the nose roll coming off. Luke Nolen who has partnered him to so many of his wins is back in the saddle. When you look at his Group 1 record it's not all that impressive with 10 starts – 1 win and 7 placings. He always is there but doesn’t win them too often. I think the race is his to lose this week – I just think the opposition is better than the 10,000 and he may struggle.
Bella Nipotina (9) is trained by Ciaron Maher and Craig Williams is looking to post consecutive Group 1 wins aboard her. The 10,000 win was brave, and she really showed that she can win at the highest level. She is drawn well again – there is some speed in the race that should suit as well. The extra distance will suit.
Tony Gollan flies the flag for the local runners with Antino (5) who returned to the winner’s stalls with a massive BANG when he won the Group 2 Victory Stakes over 1200 metres here a month ago. He missed the start again – you cannot do that in these big races. If he jumps on terms with them, he will be right in the finish. His last 600 metres in sub 34 seconds was amazing. He loves this track (6 starts for 5 wins) and certainly must be kept in calculations. Vlad Duric will ride him again. Maybe a local win this race this year?
Tuvalu (3) is an interesting runner from the Lindsey Smith stables at Warrnambool. He resumed on his home track a month ago with a massive 61.5 kilograms and won. He led all the way on that occasion and was just too good for them. He is better suited over longer distances; however, I just think with the speed on he could be the one flashing late down the outside and challenging for the chocolates at $21.
Selections:
10 – In Secret
11 – Magic Time
9 – Bella Nipotina
1 – I Wish I Win
Rough chance – (5) Antino & (3) Tuvalu
Race 8 – LADBROKES QLD DERBY - GROUP 1
A Group 1 race over 2400 metres – the second feature race on the program.
Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman train Autumn Angel (18) who was working home in the Rough Habit (Group 3) at a rate of knots over 2000 metres. At her previous start she won the Group 1 ATC Oaks at Randwick. She got too far back at her last start, however her final 600 metre sectionals were sensational. The extra distance should see her winning this race unless there is a smokey in the field.
Tannhauser (1), trained by Chris Waller, won the Group 3 Rough Habit. He was gelded prior to that run, and they attribute that solid form to that operation. Nash Rawiller will ride him here. The way he savaged the line late in that race showed that he would be solid at the extra distance.
Mick Price & Michael Kent trains Warmonger (2) who ran a wonderful second in the South Australian Derby (Group 1) over 2500 metres. He likes to travel in the rear of the field and produce a strong finish. He has drawn barrier 23 which is not ideal – Blake Shinn has been riding in great form – he will give him every chance. This SA race has always been a good form lead into this race every year – do not overlook this runner.
The New Zealanders are well represented with First Innings (12) and Moonlight Magic (17) both trained by Andrew Forsman.
First Innings (12) had a win at Ipswich where she travelled wide and surged to the lead and destroyed a restricted grade field over 2180 metres. Jim Byrne will be savouring the opportunity in posting another Group 1 victory to his resume when he rides this talented gelding.
The stable mate is Moonlight Magic (17) with Michael Dee aboard. She won at Group 3 level at Ellerslie over 2100 metres at her last start. Crucial gear changes with the blinkers and the lugging bit going on. Not sure how she has travelled across – but these kiwi runners generally do well in Australia.
Felix The Scat (2) is trained by Gollan Racing – caught wide last start – still worked home late – can Kyle Wilson Taylor help cause an upset and win his second career Group 1?
Selections:
18 – Autumn Angel
1 – Tannhauser
2 – Warmonger
17 – Moonlight Magic
Rough chance – (12) First Innings & (7) Felix the Scat
Race 9 HELEN COUGHLAN STAKES – LISTED
The last race of the program – a Listed race for fillies and mares over 1200 metres.
There is one here to note with Jamie Kah to ride – an emergency that hopefully gets a run – Moesha (19). She drew terribly in barrier 16 in the Group 2 Tobin in South Australia. They were forced to go back and ride for luck. Well that they did – an amazing effort when you look at the replays. Coming from an impossible position to run a gallant second. Drawn perfect this week in barrier 6 watch for Kah to put her in behind the speed. She should get every chance from this draw to post her first black type win.
Hip Hip Hurrah (18) – someone will be cheering if it wins for Michael Freedman. She resumed in the Mick Dittman over 1000 metres after a freshen up. Was the victim of a rubbish barrier draw and went back at her last start and then was ridden for luck by Kyle Wilson Taylor who stays aboard here. Then ran into all sorts of trouble in the straight – probably should have won with an ounce of luck. That race was won by Tiger Shark who franked the form with a win last weekend. She has drawn barrier 12 here – should be able to be prominent in the running. I keep on looking at the replay of her last start – sectionals for the last three sections of the race were a pretty good effort. She is around $21 and represents great each way value.
Bezique (14) is trained by Gollan Racing with Craig Williams on top. Was run down in the final few strides by Aureus Angel (6) last start. She is third up here where she has won before. Big odds as well at $15.
Aureus Angel (10) is trained by Chris Munce and Damien Thornton will ride her again after she was backed late at massive odds when winning the Bright Shadow at Listed level when resuming. She looked to have plenty of improvement and to be fair I would have had her in the mix here except for the horrendous barrier drawer- barrier 21. She does love this Eagle Farm track – keep safe.
Facile (10) won last time out at Randwick in the Group 3 PJ Bell over 1200 metres. She does seem to go better on wet and boggy surfaces – not sure she will get those conditions here this weekend. Tyler Schiller retains the ride.
Coeur Volante (4) is trained by Michael Moroney in Victoria and Blake Shinn will ride her again. She hit a purple patch of form late last year winning Group 2 & 3 races before going around in the Group 1 1000 Guineas at Caulfield where she probably didn’t run out a solid mile. This distance is ideal for her, and she normally comes to hand quickly. This stable is very astute and if the money comes for her on Saturday you will want to be on her. If she is fully ready for an assault on this race her class may just get her through.
Selections:
19 – Moesha
18 – Hip Hip Hurrah
4 – Coeur Volante
14 – Bezique
Rough chance – (6) Aureus Angel &(10) Facile & (13) Enterprise Pomme
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Jockeys Challenge
Looks like a difficult day. Craig Williams, Jamie Kah, Blake Shinn, and Nash Rawiller have some good rides. Maybe a slight edge to Craig Williams to pip Jamie Kah in a close battle.
Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)
10,11,12,20 / 3,5,6,7 / 5,10,12,15 / 1,2,4,16 - cost is $256 to $1.
Value Early Quaddie (races 2 to 5)
10,11,20 / 3,5 / 5,10,15 / 2,4,16 - cost is $54 to $1.
Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
1,4,5,7,17 / 1,5,9,10,11 / 1,2,7,18 / 4,6,10,14,18,19 - cost is $600 to $1
Value Quaddie (races 6 to 9)
4,7,17 / 10,11 / 1,2,18 / 4,18,19 - cost is $54 to $1
Treble (races 7 to 9)
1,5,9,10,11 / 1,2,17,18 / 4,6,10,14,18,19 - cost is $120 to $1.
WINNO V FLEMO
The battle is on again between WINNO and FLEMO. WINNO won last weekend – as did the BULLDOGS – poor FLEMO – a loss at the races and then a dismal effort from the Broncos to be bashed by the Titans! FLEMO will need to lift this week! Be sure to check the up to date and amended tips each Saturday morning on Facebook after any track changes and scratchings where I will post our selections and any late mail!
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