WINNO'S WINNERS: GRAFTON JULY 18 - GRAFTON CUP DAY

By Darren Winningham | Tuesday, July 16, 2024

WINNO will be at GRAFTON for the fourth day of the 2024 GRAFTON CARNIVAL. It is the traditional GRAFTON CUP 2024 this year sponsored by long term club sponsors WESTLAWN. At the time of writing the track is rated ‘Soft.’ The rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

NB: As these selections were made prior to race-day, please check for any changes to track conditions and for any scratchings on the day.

Race 1 MOTHER’S GIFT

This is a race over 1400 metres – for the fillies and mares. There is some serious speed in here – they could do damage to each other.

Stephen Lee combines with Jai Williams with his runner – Lady Wardell (5). She has been up a while. I thought that she performed well last start at Ballina on a heavy track even though she is not a huge fan of heavy surfaces.

The stable mate is Byron Eyes (7) with Cejay Graham to ride – she is not without a rough hope either.

Burning Hell (2) is trained on the Gold Coast by Toby Edmonds. Was a solid effort last time out at Ipswich in the Gai Waterhouse Classic over 1200 metres. She was never on the track and had no luck in the running. In this smaller field she should get the run of the race. Jimmy Orman will ride her. Edmonds and Orman have a tremendous strike rate when they combine. She has the prohibitive odds of around $1.90.

I can make a case for Wonderwhen (9) with Matt Bennett to ride. She is trained by Brett Dodson and is second up here on a track that she loves. She resumed at Kempsey over 1250 metres on a heavy track with a huge weight and ran well. Her second up record is strong, and she will thrive on the firmer ground – maybe an each-way bet at $21.

Tracey Bartley trains Sebrenco (6) who has been racing on heavy tracks at Rosehill. She comes back to the country grade race with a firmer track – would not be surprised if she puts in a bold effort.

Selections:

2 – Burning Hell
9 – Wonderwhen
6 – Sebrenco
5 – Lady Wardell
Rough chance – (7) Byron Eyes

Race 2

Class 1 over 1400 metres. Big field here – many form lines to consider.

Cool Man (3) is trained by Brett Dodson and Matt Bennett will ride. He was checked at the start at Tamworth over 1200 metres and got too far out of his ground. Despite being towards the rear of the field he still circled the field and made a strong dash towards the line finishing a few lengths from the eventual winner. There is some genuine speed in this race so he should get a nice trail into the race however, the only problem is that the Grafton circuit has been racing very leaderish and this may affect his chances of winning the race.

Sue Grills trains Night Fighter (2). Sue has been a frequent visitor to this Carnival for many years and always seems to post a winner during the five-day Carnival. Last start on this track this runner raced over 1425 metres and was hard up against the rails and held on late to run a gallant third. I think that run will be a real fitness benefit for him, and he should race close to the speed – I’m giving him a definite chance to win this race. Sue has elected to put a senior jockey on for this run - Ashley Morgan will ride.

Dazzling Robert (5) is trained by Owen Glue and will be ridden by Danny Peisley. He won at his last start at Ballina over 1310 metres on a heavy surface. That win was in maiden class; he may just graduate and win his class one grade race. Keep safe.

Glowlight (1) is trained by Matthew Dunn. This runner won last time out at Doomben in maiden company. He has drawn terribly in barrier 16 and I am not sure whether he will take his position in the field. If he does race you cannot leave him out of your selections.

Winter's Promise (9) is the stablemate and is nominated to race in the last race on Ramornie Day – keep your eye on what race that he ends up running in.

Selections:

3 – Cool Man
2 – Night Fighter
5 – Dazzling Robert
1 – Glowlight
Rough chance – (9) Winter's Promise

Race 3

This is a tough assignment - aBM66 over 1000 metres.

I have gone for some roughies here. Soju Session (14) is trained by John Sprague and Cejay Graham will ride from barrier 4. She resumes here from a spell and has performed well previously first up. I like that she has drawn close to the fence and with the speed in the race I expect Cejay to be sitting behind them and hopefully get a run along the fence late. Super each way odds are on offer at around $12. The tongue tie also goes on for this start.

Damien Lane trains Sparkingly (14) with Ben Lookers in the saddle. He is a last start winner at Scone over 900 metres. On that occasion he sat four wide then moved into the middle of the track and destroyed the opposition late. He is drawn well in barrier 6 and could post two wins in a row.

Lady Tulessa (9) is trained on the track by John Shelton. At her last start at Murwillumbah over 1010 metres she got caught in the wrong section of the track. Despite this she finished off the race strongly. Back on her home turf and with a claim for apprentice Molly Fitzgerald she could show up at massive odds at around $31.

The pre post favourite is a runner from QLD trained by David Vandyke who will be ridden by Jace McMurray who claims 2 kilograms off the massive weight. Slippin Jimmy (2) was sent out favourite at his last start at Doomben over 1350 metres he had the race all sewed up when a rival flashed down the outside and beat him in the shadows of the post. He has had a four week freshen up since that run and will come to the races dropping back in distance – there are a few things against him here – I would prefer to lay this one.

There are some other chances – Swift Charm (3) and Silver Canvas (8).

A tough race to start the BIG 6 off!

Selections:

14 – Soju Session
13 – Sparkingly
9 – Lady Tulessa
2 – Slippin Jimmy
Rough chances – (3) Swift Charm and (8) Silver Canvas

Race 4 THE BIG MAIDEN

A maiden race – with a purse of $22,000 for the winner – the race is over 1175 metres.

The lethal combination of the Queenslanders in Tony Gollan and Jimmy Orman combine here with the first starter Power Ace (7). The filly won a barrier trial recently at Deagon over 1050 metres in a striking effort. They will come for her on race day, and she will be backed. She has drawn handily in barrier 2 and appears to have a strong chance.

Superstitious (2) is nominated for a race on Wednesday (Race 2). He is a new starter for the Matthew Dunn stables and has been trialling well so you cannot leave him out of your selections wherever he races. If he takes his spot in this field Damien Thornton will ride him.

Rodeo Dealer (15) is trained by Sally Taylor and will be ridden by Danny Peisley. He has been racing on heavy tracks in his recent starts. I am not too certain whether he has been appreciating that surface. He gets to a firmer surface here and I just wonder from the nice barrier whether he can cause an upset and break his maiden status.

There is one at massive odds from the Stephen Lee yards – Back On The De Quo (16). Massive odds at $51 – he is third up and not without a chance for mine.

Kervette (9) is the runner I like here. She was sent out as a heavily backed favourite at Newcastle first up over 1200 metres on a heavy track. On that occasion she was slowly away from the gates and was forced to go back and then race wide throughout. I think we can really forgive that run and look to an improved performance here second up. She is trained by Kirsten Buchanan and will be ridden by Taylor Marshall. Currently around $6.

Selections:

9 – Kervette
15 – Rodeo Dealer
16 – Back On The De Quo
7 – Power Ace
Rough chance – (2) Superstitious

Race 5 NBN NEWS SPRINGBOARD TO FAME

A 1175 metre race for the babies. First leg of the Quaddie.

Jockey Jimmy Orman and Gold Coast trainer Toby Edmonds combine here with a nice colt Star Ambition (10) who won on debut at Sunshine Coast over 1000 metres. The win was impressive, but he was all out on the line – he will derive a fair bit of fitness out of that run. Prior to the win he had won three barrier trials and lived up to that form on the track. This race always seems to turn up a rough result for the punters each year - so just a word of advice, maybe not jump into the even money about this horse and play wide to see if you can get it beaten.

The likely danger is the Brett Cavanough trained Torn (11) who was sent out favourite first up at Scone over 1200 metres on a heavy track. He was beaten by a smart one on that occasion so you could think that he will be better for that run and be competitive here. Barrier 14 is of concern, and he will need some luck from out there – Ashley Morgan will ride.

Aquafire (1) won ten days ago here in the lead up race. Trained by Stephen Farley he was ridden close to the fence and got home strong to post a solid win in an incredibly competitive race. Cejay Graham retains the ride.

Ferinzo (4) is trained by Jake Hull. Opened favourite last start here at Grafton on debut before drifting in the markets. He laid in the straight however I think that he will derive some benefit from that first up effort – Ben Looker retains the ride.

Selections:

10 – Star Ambition
11 – Torn
1 – Aquafire
4 – Ferinzo
Rough chance – (5) Foo Fighter

Race 6

First leg of the Treble. Class 6 Plate over 1175 metres.

Matthew Dunn Racing has Self Indulgent (12) in the race – Jimmy Orman aboard. Has had a stable change from Tony Gollan and was first up for the new stable over 1110 metres at Doomben. Her best form is over distance like she encounters today. She got too far back first up however she stormed home late to run the fastest 200 sectionals in the race. On that first up effort she would be super competitive here in this grade.

Nipotino (14) has been racing in NSW Saturday Sydney grade races. He won two starts ago at Randwick over 1100 metres on a heavy track. Then had a slight freshen up for four weeks before racing again over 1200 metres at Randwick again on a heavy track and just seemed to run out of fitness late. He thrives on the heavy surfaces, but I just think in this grade of race and down in the weights he gets his opportunity to post a win at Grafton. Regan Bayliss will ride him for trainer Danielle Sieb.

Cavalier Charles (1), despite being allocated the top weight, looks ideally placed in this grade of race. Damien Thornton comes down from Queensland to ride this runner for trainer Matthew Dale. He resumed racing at Scone in a quality race over 1100 metres and worked home strongly to finish on the heels of the eventual winner. Since then, he has been second up at Randwick over 1300 metres on a heavy track where he just did not go a yard. When you combine his poor second up record and the heavy track you should forgive the run. He is third up record is good so I expect him to thrive at this Grafton track on a firmer surface can be difficult to beat. The challenge will be barrier 19. He will need some luck from out there.

Broken Hill (10) is trained by Cody Morgan and Jace McMurray will ride. There are several gear changes for this runner for this assignment. He is third up and I expect him to show something here.

There are some other chances – Deep Rouge (8) and King Gutho (11).

It is a tough race to get the winner!

Selections:

14 – Nipotino
12 – Self Indulgent
1 – Cavalier Charles
10 – Broken Hill
Rough chances – (8) Deep Rouge & (11) King Gutho

Race 7 2024 WESTLAWN GRAFTON CUP

The second last race and the feature race of Day 4 – the time-honoured Grafton Cup raced over 2350 metres.

The Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott team have won the recent Grafton Cup in recent years – this year they have no runner!

Thalassophile (4) is trained by the powerful Chris Waller Racing yards. This is one of the country Cups that has eluded this powerful stable – is 2024 is the year with Jimmy Orman to ride this runner. She ran home nicely after getting too far back in the Tattersall’s Gold Crown (Listed) at Eagle Farm last start. However, in saying that her final 600 sectionals were the best in the race.

In the same race Deny Knowledge (3) led throughout and it was ironic that Blake Shinn who rode a Tony Gollan runner pipped him on the post. This runner is trained by Anthony & Sam Freedman and gets in well – she should lead them unless something else goes forward and puts pressure on her. In that case I expect that Shinn will let them go and take a sit. She has been well found in the markets since the betting opened. She will get out and probably set the tempo of the race.

Luncies (2), from the Kris Lees Racing team, was scratched from the Sunshine Coast on Sunday to race here. He failed dismally in the Ipswich Cup last time out – to be fair the tempo did not suit him and caused him to go poorly. There does appear to be genuine speed in this race – that should assist him with coming home late. Michael Rodd has the ride and will be looking for his second Grafton Cup winner after winning this race in 2004 aboard Pacific Dancer.

Touristic (7) is only lightly raced this preparation where these other runners have had several or more starts. He is the fresh horse on the scene. The Peter Snowden team have won plenty of the feature sprint races here, however, have never won a Grafton Cup. They bring a genuine chance to the races for mine. He won at Mornington over 2000 metres and then was brought up to Sydney and struck a very heavy track at Rosehill in the 2000 metres W. J. McKell Cup (Listed). On that day the leaders had a distinct advantage and he got back in the field before letting down late and running second. He is now into his fourth run this preparation – he is due to peak and the soft surface will assist him. The stable has taken the winkers off and replaced them with the visor for the first time – an important gear change. Regan Bayliss will be looking for his maiden Grafton Cup win.

Full Press (12) won the Cup Prelude and carried a mammoth 60 kilograms and drops to the minimum here with Angela Jones riding for trained Brett Dodson. He is not without a genuine rough chance. He did lead them in that race and ran them all into the ground on a day where not many runners could make up ground late.

Selections:

7 – Touristic
3 – Deny Knowledge
4 – Thalassophile
2 – Luncies
Rough chance – (12) Full Press

Race 8 THE KIRBY

The last race of the day - the traditional Kirby sprint held on Cup Day. As normal they will go fast early and then, usually, something runs home late.

The favourite is Compelling Truth (5) after winning his past three starts. Will race at speed – just pings the gates and goes hard and makes them all chase him. He is trained by Mack Griffith and Jake Pracey-Holmes will ride him again. He has ridden him for 4 starts – to post 4 wins – can he keep the 100% strike rate? He is short odds as well at around $1.80.

I think Compelling Truth will get run down! I am telling you the truth! I am going for Bomarea (8) trained by Marc Quinn with Mollie Fitzgerald in the saddle. She is only a three-year-old filly against older horses but has impressive stats with 8 career starts for 4 wins. She resumed last time out at Tamworth over 1000 metres. She ran a suitable time and was not extended – it was a soft win. Steps up to open company here and may just cause an upset. If she can run the same time and sectionals as her last victory, she wins for mine!

Immoral (2) from the Gollan Racing yards in Brisbane is not without some chance. With the speed on, look for him to be storming home late. He has had a seven week freshen up – Angela Jones will ride. Last start at Doomben drew wide and got too far back – look for a more positive ride here.

The stable mate is Osamu (1) – loves to go hard and fast from the gates – could cause some drama for these other leaders.

Mabel (3) from the Tracey Bartley stables has been going around on the wet tracks in Sydney. Down in grade and on a firmer surface look for an improved effort.

Selections:

8 – Bomarea
5 – Compelling Truth
2 – Immoral
3 – Mabel
Rough chance – (1) Osamu

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Jockey’s Challenge

I think the result will be an open affair on Cup Day – Cejay Graham – Taylor Marshall – Jimmy Orman - and Kyle Wilson Taylor all have some nice rides. I am going for Jimmy Orman to get the job done – but clipping at his heels will be Cejay Graham.

Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4)

2,6,9 / 2,3,5 / 2,9,13,14 /7,9,15,16 - cost is $144 to $1

Value Early Quaddie (races 1 to 4)

2,9 / 2,3 / 13,14 / 7,9,15 - cost is $24 to $1

Quaddie (races 5 to 8)

1,10,11 / 11,10,12,14 / 3,4,7 / 2,5,8 - cost is $108 to $1

Value Quaddie (races 5 to 8)

10,11 / 1,12,14 / 3,7 / 5,8 - cost is $24 to $1

Treble (races 6 to 8)

11,10,12,14 / 3,4,7 / 2,5,8 - cost is $36 to $1

BIG 6 (races 3 to 8)

13,14 / 7,9,15 / 1,10,11 / 1,12,14 / 3,7 / 5,8 - cost is $216 to $1

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